\n\tIt is the good, the bad and the ugly of the Oscars, laid bare across 24 categories and centered on one irresistible question: What are voters actually thinking?<\/p>\n
\n\tAs Variety previously reported, this year\u2019s digital Oscar ballot is synced to the Academy Screening Room, where members can watch nominees. Under a new rule, members must watch all nominees in a category before they can vote in it. Until then, those races remain grayed out on the ballot.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe change delayed voting for some members. In past years, some voters would simply rush through the ballot. While the new format still operates largely on the honor system, the setup nudges members to watch more contenders or abstain from categories they have not completed.<\/p>\n
\n\tBefore treating the anonymous ballot as a parlor game, it is worth considering who is casting those votes. According to the most recent Academy figures, there are 11,126 members, of which 10,136 are active voters. The body remains majority white and American, though those demographics vary by branch. The Academy is 35% women, 22% from underrepresented communities and 21% international. The actors branch, the largest with 1,311 members, has become a major driver of diversification in recent years.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe Academy can point to progress. Even so, awards voting remains a revealing exercise.<\/p>\n
\n\tHere are some of the most notable takeaways from voters, including selections from anonymous Oscar ballots.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t![\"\"](\"https:\/\/variety.com\/wp-content\/themes\/pmc-variety-2020\/assets\/public\/lazyload-fallback.gif\")
<\/p>\n
\n\tBest picture is a true-to-form two-film race with no daylight between them.<\/p>\n
\n\tRyan Coogler\u2019s vampire drama \u201cSinners<\/a>\u201d and Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s political thriller \u201cOne Battle After Another<\/a>\u201d are, by a wide margin, the top two choices among voters. So dominant are those films that it is difficult to name a clear third-place contender. They have consumed the race.<\/p>\n \n\tWhat makes the contest especially compelling is the psychology of voters who admire both films. In at least six conversations with ballot-sharing voters, a pattern emerged: Many said some version of, \u201c\u2018One Battle After Another\u2019 is going to win best picture, but I voted for \u2018Sinners.\u2019\u201d In some cases, that same split extended to best director: \u201cPaul Thomas Anderson is going to win, but I voted for Ryan Coogler.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tThe dynamic recalls the 2020-21 Oscar season, when some voters believed Chadwick Boseman, for \u201cMa Rainey\u2019s Black Bottom,\u201d would win best actor but ultimately cast ballots for Anthony Hopkins in \u201cThe Father.\u201d The instinctive or \u201cpurity\u201d choice, rather than the presumed consensus winner, appears to be shaping this race as well.<\/p>\n \n\tThat means Coogler\u2019s candidacy for best director is real, despite Anderson\u2019s sweep of precursor awards.<\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 1 Profile: American, actors branch, under 65, person of color<\/p>\n \n\tBest picture: \u201cSinners\u201d \n\tGood: \u201cI loved \u2018Hamnet\u2019 and \u2018Sinners.\u2019 I don\u2019t want to punish either film for being different kinds of great. Both gutted me in different ways.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tBad: \u201cI couldn\u2019t finish any of the shorts this year. They really are a drag.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tUgly: \u201cI thought all 10 movies were great, but overall, not a great year for movies.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\tEthan Hawke as Lorenz Hart in \u201cBlue Moon\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u00a9Sony Pictures\/Courtesy Everett Collection<\/p>\n \n\tBest actor shows Michael B. Jordan surging with Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke as spoilers.<\/p>\n \n\tBest actor is, by a considerable margin, the most scattered category in this ballot survey. Support is spread across several contenders, though one theme is clear: Michael B. Jordan has built enough backing to emerge as a serious favorite for his first Oscar.<\/p>\n \n\tStill, a meaningful number of votes also went to Leonardo DiCaprio for \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d and Ethan Hawke for \u201cBlue Moon.\u201d If Jordan has spoilers, they appear to be those two. What did not surface in significant numbers were votes for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d or a broad wave of support for Wagner Moura in \u201cThe Secret Agent.\u201d Both remain in the conversation, but not at the level their campaigns may have hoped.<\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 2 Profile: American, craft branch, over 65, white<\/p>\n \n\tBest picture: \u201cF1\u201d \n\tThis exchange came after the voter read the ballot aloud:<\/p>\n \n\tVariety: \u201cThese choices are surprising and all over the place. Can you explain, like, why Chlo\u00e9?\u201d \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u201cHamnet\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u00a9Focus Features\/Courtesy Everett Collection<\/p>\n \n\tSome of the films that were \u201chomework\u201d at the end.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cHamnet,\u201d \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d and \u201cSentimental Value\u201d were the late homework assignments for many members, films a notable number of voters had not seen until the final days of balloting. That timing could help Jessie Buckley, who has been a consistent force throughout the season. A fresh late screening of \u201cHamnet\u201d may have worked in her favor.<\/p>\n \n\tBuckley is the most consistently mentioned name in best actress. There is broad enthusiasm for her performance, and \u201cHamnet\u201d also appears to function as an alternative to \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d for some voters. Among those who were less responsive to the film, support split among Kate Hudson for \u201cSong Sung Blue,\u201d Rose Byrne for \u201cIf I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You\u201d and Emma Stone for \u201cBugonia.\u201d It is not a deep bench of challengers, but it does suggest the category is not entirely locked.<\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 3 Profile: American, artisans branch, under 65, Black<\/p>\n \n\tBest Picture: \u201cSinners\u201d \n\tGood: \u201c\u2018Sinners\u2019 is the movie that made me remember what a theater is for.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tBad: \u201cAre we allowed to finally talk about why \u2018One Battle After Another\u2019 is a bad movie, or are we still just pretending it\u2019s not the most problematic movie for the Black community since maybe \u2018Green Book\u2019?\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tUgly: \u201cPeople are too scared to say what they think in Hollywood. That includes journalists and critics. It\u2019s easier to come down on an underdog than say, \u2018Dear Mr. Anderson, your movie is not great.\u2019 All because he made \u2018Boogie Nights\u2019?\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u00a9Warner Bros\/Courtesy Everett C<\/p>\n \n\tDelroy Lindo led the charge early, but Sean Penn had a huge showing in the last 48 hours.<\/p>\n \n\tThe supporting actor race appears to have narrowed to three contenders: Delroy Lindo for \u201cSinners,\u201d Sean Penn for \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d and Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd for \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tEarly ballots showed strong support for Lindo, with Skarsg\u00e5rd close behind and little movement for Penn. But in the final 48 hours before voting closed at 5 p.m. PT, that changed. Penn\u2019s late momentum makes him a plausible winner, which would give him a third Oscar after victories for \u201cMystic River\u201d and \u201cMilk.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tSkarsg\u00e5rd remains the wild card. Many voters had not yet seen \u201cSentimental Value\u201d when contacted, meaning late viewings may have consolidated support around the veteran Swedish actor. <\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 4 Profile: American, writers branch, under 65, woman<\/p>\n \n\tBest Picture: \u201cSinners\u201d \n\tGood: \u201cThere were a lot of movies I loved watching this year. Original movies are back, baby.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tBad: \u201cI hated \u2018Frankenstein.\u2019 And I still can\u2019t stop thinking about the cinematography in \u2018Train Dreams.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tUgly: \u201cI wish Stellan was in best actor, because that\u2019s a best actor performance. Not a supporting one.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\tAmy Madigan in \u201cWeapons\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWarner Bros.<\/p>\n \n\tAmy Madigan has the home field advantage, and Wunmi Mosaku has the range of demographics.<\/p>\n \n\tSupporting actress produced some of the most nuanced ballot conversations.<\/p>\n \n\tAmy Madigan\u2019s performance in \u201cWeapons\u201d appears to carry substantial goodwill among Los Angeles-based industry voters, the kind of hometown backing that can matter in a close race. Her SAG Award win reflects that strength.<\/p>\n \n\tBut Wunmi Mosaku of \u201cSinners\u201d may be the most interesting contender in the category. She seems to be pulling support from two different groups: committed \u201cSinners\u201d voters checking the film across the ballot, and \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d supporters who appear to be using the category as a place to honor another standout performance.<\/p>\n \n\tIn at least a few cases, voters who favored \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d in best picture, director and actor still chose Mosaku over co-nominee Teyana Taylor in supporting actress.<\/p>\n \n\tThat dual appeal, both passionate first-choice support and affectionate crossover backing, could be enough to carry Mosaku to a win. One voter told Variety that, in all their years voting for the Oscars, supporting actress was the toughest category they\u2019ve ever voted on.<\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 5 Profile: International, craft branch, over 65, white<\/p>\n \n\tBest picture: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d \n\tGood: \u201cI watched \u2018One Battle After Another\u2019 twice. The first time, I admired it. The second time, I had the time of my life.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tBad: \u201cI didn\u2019t think \u2018Sinners\u2019 was great. It felt long and repetitive.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tUgly: \u201cPaul Thomas Anderson is the only filmmaker who made a movie I\u2019ll remember 15 to 20 years from now. Everything else is lifeless.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCourtesy of Netflix<\/p>\n \n\tCinematography is between three dynamic choices.<\/p>\n \n\tCinematography may be the most competitive craft category in this ballot sample.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d represents the pure craft-choice vote for many members, a recognition of Adolfo Veloso\u2019s striking work. But \u201cSinners\u201d is a serious contender, with Autumn Durald Arkapaw potentially in position to make history as the first woman to win in the category, a fact voters appeared aware of.<\/p>\n \n\tDespite BAFTA and American Society of Cinematographers wins for \u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d that film did not initially appear to hold the same level of Academy support early in voting. Still, as with Penn in supporting actor, ballots for the film increased in the final 24 hours. The race appears headed for a photo finish.<\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 6 Profile: International, directors branch, over 65<\/p>\n \n\tBest picture ranking:<\/p>\n \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSentimental Value\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBugonia\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cF1\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cHamnet\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tDirector: Paul Thomas Anderson \n\tGood: \u201cEveryone\u2019s acting like this year is a cage match between two movies. I keep begging people to watch what the crafts are doing. That\u2019s where the cinema is.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tBad: \u201cDid \u2018F1\u2019 make any sense?\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tUgly: \u201cI know my colleagues don\u2019t watch all of the movies. It\u2019s sad. Quit if you\u2019re not going to do this. Some really care.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tKen Woroner\/Netflix<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cFrankenstein\u201d looks to hold onto its three tech races, but there are a couple of coin-flips lurking in places.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cFrankenstein\u201d looks well positioned to win production design, costume design and makeup and hairstyling. Its visual identity clearly made a lasting impression on branch voters.<\/p>\n \n\tFilm editing appears to be a three-way race among \u201cSinners,\u201d \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d and \u201cF1,\u201d though the first two seem to hold the advantage. Sound appears to be \u201cF1\u2019s\u201d category to lose, with \u201cSinners\u201d the most credible challenger.<\/p>\n \n\tVoter No. 7 Profile: American, artisan, under 65, white<\/p>\n \n\tBest Picture: \u201cSinners\u201d (1), \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (2) \n\tGood: \u201cI\u2019m all the way \u2018Sinners.\u2019 It\u2019s bigger than the Oscars.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tBad: \u201cWhen \u2018F1\u2019 makes the best picture lineup, it\u2019s a rough year for movies.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tUgly: \u201cThe weakest film we\u2019ve had in the entertainment business in a long time.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tSome final thoughts: I don\u2019t think \u201cSinners\u201d is polling lower than No. 2 in any single category where it is nominated. Not one. That consistency is staggering for a film perceived in some quarters as the sentimental favorite rather than the likely winner. While many will deem this probability unlikely, there is a version of Oscar night where \u201cSinners\u201d becomes the most awarded film in Academy history \u2014 surpassing the 11 total wins of \u201cThe Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,\u201d \u201cTitanic\u201d and \u201cBen-Hur\u201d \u2014 after having already been the most nominated. We\u2019ll see when the envelopes are opened.<\/p>\n \n\tFinal Oscar predictions will drop next week. The Oscars will air on Sunday, March 15 on ABC and Hulu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cI\u2019m glad to be with you, Samwise Gamgee. Here at the end of all things.\u201d The final Oscar…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":497159,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[189658,88,89051,29506,21959],"class_list":["post-506525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-entertainment","tag-awards-circuit-column","tag-entertainment","tag-one-battle-after-another","tag-oscars","tag-sinners"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=506525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/497159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=506525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=506525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=506525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Director: Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Actor: Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d
Actress: Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Supporting actor: Jacob Elordi, \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Director: Chlo\u00e9 Zhao
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Actress: Kate Hudson
Supporting actor: Sean Penn
Supporting actress: Teyana Taylor<\/p>\n
Voter: \u201cBecause I couldn\u2019t vote for Joe Kosinski.\u201d
Variety: \u201cThat\u2019s it?\u201d
Voter: \u201cAnd I think her movie is interesting.\u201d
Variety: \u201cWhy didn\u2019t you vote for Jessie Buckley?\u201d
Voter: \u201cI like Kate.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Director: Ryan Coogler, \u201cSinners\u201d
Actor: Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d
Actress: Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Supporting actor: Delroy Lindo, \u201cSinners\u201d
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, \u201cSinners\u201d
Original screenplay: \u201cSinners\u201d
Adapted screenplay: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Casting: \u201cSinners\u201d
Production design: \u201cSinners\u201d
Cinematography: \u201cSinners\u201d
Costume design: \u201cHamnet\u201d
Film editing: \u201cSinners\u201d
Makeup and hairstyling: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Sound: \u201cSinners\u201d
Visual effects: \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Actor: Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Actress: Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Supporting actor: Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Supporting actress: Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d
Original screenplay: \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Adapted screenplay: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Casting: \u201cSinners\u201d
Animated feature: \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d
Production design: \u201cSinners\u201d
Cinematography: \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d
Costume design: \u201cSinners\u201d
Film editing: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Makeup and hairstyling: \u201cSinners\u201d
Sound: \u201cSinners\u201d
Visual effects: \u201cThe Lost Bus\u201d
Original score: \u201cSinners\u201d
Original song: \u201cSinners\u201d
Documentary feature: \u201cThe Alabama Solution\u201d
International feature: \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
Animated short: \u201cButterfly\u201d
Documentary short: \u201cThe Devil Is Busy\u201d
Live-action short: \u201cFriend of Dorothy\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Actor: Wagner Moura, \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
Actress: Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Supporting actor: Benicio Del Toro, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, \u201cSinners\u201d
Original screenplay: \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Adapted screenplay: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Casting: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Production design: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Cinematography: \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d
Costume design: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Film editing: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Makeup and hairstyling: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Sound: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Visual effects: \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d
Original score: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Original song: \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Actress: Rose Byrne, \u201cIf I Had Legs, I\u2019d Kick You\u201d
Supporting actor: Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd
Supporting actress: Teyana Taylor
Original Screenplay: \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Adapted Screenplay: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Director: Ryan Coogler
Actor: Michael B. Jordan
Actress: Jessie Buckley
Supporting actor: Sean Penn
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku
Original screenplay: \u201cSinners\u201d
Adapted screenplay: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Cinematography: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Film editing: \u201cF1\u201d
Production design: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Costume design: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Makeup and hairstyling: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Sound: \u201cSinners\u201d
Original score: \u201cSinners\u201d
Original song: \u201cGolden,\u201d from \u201cK-Pop Demon Hunters\u201d
International feature: \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d
Animated feature: Abstain
Documentary feature: Abstain
Shorts: Abstain<\/p>\n