China’s economic ambitions hit limits to growth as its national congress prepares to meet<\/a><\/p>\n“While the recent pace of gains is unlikely to be sustained, exports are likely to remain robust given the recent decline in U.S. tariffs and strong demand for semiconductors,” Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.<\/p>\n
China’s total imports in January and February rose almost 20%, up from December’s 5.7% year-on-year increase. However, its imports from the United States dropped nearly 27% from a year earlier.<\/p>\n
China’s global trade surplus in January-February was $213.6 billion. Trade data is typically combined for January to February each year to help even out seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year festival, the biggest holiday of the year.<\/p>\n
A slowing domestic economy fueled by a yearslong property sector downturn has been weighing on the world’s second largest economy. Last week, Chinese leaders announced an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, the lowest since 1991.<\/p>\n
The war in the Middle East has raised uncertainty over the outlook for trade and for China’s own energy security. An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for much of the world’s trade in oil and gas, may restrict China’s access to relatively cheap Iranian oil and also impede its broader commerce with the region.<\/p>\n
For China, export competitiveness is paramount, said Han Lin, China Country Director at consultancy The Asia Group. “Energy inflation is the last thing Beijing policymakers need,” he said.<\/p>\n
If the war drags on, a surge in oil prices fueling global inflation could also weaken consumption abroad, potentially hurting overseas demand for Chinese goods, said Daniel Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.<\/p>\n
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