“Geo\/political tensions are driving up the price of oil right now which will continue to drive up my estimates of the COLA,” Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, said via email.<\/p>\n
Based on new government inflation data<\/a> for February, the Social Security COLA<\/a> may be 1.7% in 2027, according to Johnson. That’s up from Johnson’s estimate of 1.2%<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n Separately, the Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan senior group, forecasts a 2.8%<\/a> cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, unchanged from its estimate from last month.<\/p>\n The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is an annual change to benefits to help monthly payments keep pace<\/a> with inflation.<\/p>\n For 2026, about 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries received a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment<\/a>. That prompted a $56-per-month increase to retirement benefits, on average, the Social Security Administration said in October<\/a>. However, those increases may vary, particularly with annual increases to Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted from monthly benefit checks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Social Security COLAs have averaged about 3.1% in the past decade, according to the agency.<\/p>\n Read more CNBC personal finance coverageSocial Security 2027 COLA forecast may rise with high oil prices<\/a>You can’t ‘borrow your way out of debt,’ expert says, but more people are trying<\/a>Here’s the inflation breakdown for February 2026 \u2014 in one chart<\/a>SAVE plan used by millions of student loan borrowers is over, court orders<\/a>Identity theft and your taxes: It’s ‘a terrible reverse lottery,’ one victim says<\/a>As Iran war disrupts oil prices, consumers could be ‘hammered,’ economist says<\/a>Million-dollar earners have already stopped paying into Social Security for 2026<\/a>Women and the K-shaped economy: Lower pay, affordability issues reduce spending<\/a>Small 401(k) accounts may follow workers to their next job \u2014 except Roth money<\/a>In a jobs apocalypse, look to ‘AI-proof’ skilled trades, career experts say<\/a>Middle-income homebuyers have $30,000 more buying power than a year ago<\/a>Average IRS tax refund is up 10.6%, early filing data shows<\/a>GOP ‘big beautiful bill’ to deal ‘shock’ to the ACA marketplace: health experts<\/a>As millions claim Trump’s ‘no tax on overtime’ deduction, filers risk mistakes<\/a>S&P 500 shrugs off 1% daily drops all the time. Investors can too, advisors say<\/a>CNBC’s Financial Advisor 100: Best financial advisors, top firms ranked<\/a><\/p>\n In some recent years, beneficiaries have seen much higher annual increases as inflation spiked following the Covid pandemic. In 2022 and 2023, the COLAs were 5.9%<\/a> and 8.7%<\/a>, respectively. Both increases were the highest in four decades at the time.<\/p>\n In the years since, the Social Security COLA increases have fallen closer to average.<\/p>\n Factors affecting 2027 COLA forecast <\/p>\n The 12-month inflation rate rose 2.4%<\/a>, according to consumer price index data for February released on Wednesday. <\/p>\n That data did not include recent oil shocks prompted by the Iran war. Gasoline fell 5.6%<\/a> over the past 12 months, according to the February CPI data. However, March data will likely show a jump in those prices, which could in turn push up the 2027 COLA forecast, according to Johnson.<\/p>\n Retirees are already facing higher utility bills, as the costs of home heating oil, natural gas and electricity have risen, she said.<\/p>\n Tariff policies<\/a> may also lead to higher consumer costs.<\/p>\n The Social Security COLA is calculated by comparing third-quarter inflation data for the current year to the previous year’s third-quarter data. If there is an increase from year to year, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, that determines the percentage of the COLA.<\/p>\n Consequently, the COLA can lag behind higher inflation, or be higher than the current pace of inflation.<\/p>\n The CPI-W increased 2.2% over the past 12 months as of February \u2014 lower than the 2.8% COLA for 2026.<\/p>\n Yet how inflation affects individuals and households varies depending on their spending habits, or personal inflation rate<\/a>.<\/p>\n The COLA for the following year is typically announced by the Social Security Administration in October.<\/p>\n![\"Inflation](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/108276700-17732437831773243780-44503436224-1080pnbcnews.jpg\")
How Social Security annual increases compare<\/p>\n