{"id":518995,"date":"2026-03-12T11:34:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:34:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/518995\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T11:34:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:34:09","slug":"iran-war-threatens-to-upend-stocks-bonds-and-the-us-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/518995\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war threatens to upend stocks, bonds and the US dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

New York
\n \u00a0\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n Stocks have climbed, bond yields have fallen and the US dollar has weakened across President Donald Trump\u2019s second term so far \u2014 market movements the president has welcomed.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the war with Iran is threatening to disrupt that, sending stocks lower and pushing yields and the dollar higher.\n <\/p>\n

\n That complicates the narrative for a president who prides himself on record-high stocks, low borrowing costs and a weaker dollar for boosting manufacturing. And with a razor-thin Republican majority in the House of Representatives at stake, that could make Trump\u2019s pitch to midterm voters a harder sell.\n <\/p>\n

\n The longer the conflict goes, the longer stocks, bonds and the dollar could all trade in exactly the opposite way Trump wants.\n <\/p>\n

\n Trump often touted record-high stocks before the war, as when the Dow hit 50,000 points<\/a> last month. He\u2019s frequently referred to the market\u2019s strength as evidence of his presidency\u2019s success.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe stock market has done so well, setting all those records \u2014 your 401(k)s are way up,\u201d Trump said during his State of the Union address<\/a> on February 24.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the Dow has dropped more than 5% since its latest record high on February 10, as investors worry about global oil flows because of the war.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe conflict in the Middle East and related headlines are still the major source of fluctuations in markets,\u201d Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in an email.\n <\/p>\n

\n Samana said he thinks the conflict will last weeks or a few months and not meaningfully change the outlook for stocks. The key is time: The longer the conflict rages, the more market uncertainty there will be.\n <\/p>\n

\n The S&P 500 is down 1.5% this month \u2014 enough to put the index into the red for the year. And it\u2019s been six weeks since the S&P hit a record high.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cIt really comes back to the duration. How long is this going to take?\u201d said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist.\n <\/p>\n

\n The key 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed since the war with Iran began as investors, worried higher oil prices will boost inflation, sell bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 3.96% at the start of the month to 4.22% as of Wednesday.\n <\/p>\n

\n Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, influence borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates.\n <\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\n In the past, the market has served as a check on the White House. The president has backed off policy proposals like tariffs when they rocked the stock and bond markets simultaneously.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Trump administration has said it is focused on lowering Treasury yields to address affordability as well as to lower interest payments the US government owes on the national debt.\n <\/p>\n

\n The 10-year yield is only at its highest level in a month. But the yield\u2019s climb last week was its largest weekly leap since April, when markets were jolted by massive tariff uncertainty<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n Resurgent inflation because of energy prices could also make the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates, at odds with the president\u2019s preference for lower rates.\n <\/p>\n

\n A weaker dollar can make US goods cheaper for other countries, serving as a tailwind for domestic manufacturing and boosting exports. That aligns with the Trump administration\u2019s goal of reviving American manufacturing.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the war with Iran has sent the dollar rebounding. The US dollar index has climbed 1.7% this month as investors flock to safe havens and as analysts see fewer Fed interest rate cuts ahead.\n <\/p>\n

\n Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in January that the United States has a strong dollar policy. But a rising dollar is at odds with the White House\u2019s hoped-for manufacturing renaissance.\n <\/p>\n

\n Before the war, the dollar index was down 0.7% in 2026 after falling 9% in 2025.\n <\/p>\n

\n The index is now up nearly 1% this year, though it is still down 4.6% since this time last year. (The index measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies.)\n <\/p>\n

\n Rising Treasury yields complicate the Trump administration\u2019s push for lower borrowing costs. A stronger dollar impedes visions of trading partners scooping up cheaper American goods. And lower stocks conflict with the president\u2019s love of record highs. Whether these moves continue depends on the price of oil and the duration of the conflict.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThere\u2019s just going to be more headline risk in the market, more choppiness, until there\u2019s more details on the timeline here,\u201d said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New York \u00a0\u2014\u00a0 Stocks have climbed, bond yields have fallen and the US dollar has weakened across President…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":518996,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-518995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=518995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/518996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=518995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=518995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=518995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}