When looking back at the 2025 postseason, one would be forgiven for forgetting that the Cincinnati Reds were involved. Even despite the inherent dangers of a short-term series, the Reds weren\u2019t able to give a proper contest to the Dodgers, falling in two straight games during Terry Francona\u2019s first year in charge. It might have been their first playoff appearance in five years, but they haven\u2019t even won a playoff game since 2012, nor a playoff series since 1995 \u2014 when the NL Central champion Brewers were still playing in the American League.<\/p>\n
All the skepticism surrounding the Reds felt justified given that they were every bit of their 83-79 record. It was a type of campaign that leads a team to a playoff appearance only in very specific circumstances \u2014 the New York Mets\u2019 late-season collapse, in this particular case. It wasn\u2019t as though they caught them in a race, it was more that they kept walking at an adequate pace while the Mets took a wayward step into a ditch.<\/p>\n
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2025 record:\u00a083-79 (3rd, NL Central)
2026 FanGraphs projection:\u00a077-85 (4th, NL Central)<\/p>\n
Any projection about the 2026 Reds starts with the unfortunate acknowledgment of ace Hunter Greene\u2019s injury status heading into the year. The former No. 2 overall pick became the latest in a series of hard-throwing starters to be sidelined for a significant period. He\u2019s now on the 60-day IL, out until at least July due to arthroscopic surgery on his elbow. Greene had already missed significant time last season, barely cracking the 100 innings mark in what was otherwise a magnificent campaign. Once again, the Reds will have to make do without him for a significant portion of their season.<\/p>\n
Typically, good Reds team score runs, doing their best to benefit from playing half their games at Great American Ballpark, hitters\u2019 favorite venue this side of Coors Field. Well, for the 2025 Reds\u2014and this ties into some of the added concerns from Greene\u2019s absence, it was all about the pitching.<\/p>\n
Despite Greene\u2019s time missed, Cincinnati managed a team ERA+ of 119, largely thanks to a career year from Andrew Abbott. The left-hander defied all odds to post a 2.39 ERA at home without the benefit of overwhelming stuff, boasting a strikeout rate below league average, all of which led to his first All-Star nod and a top-10 Cy Young finish. The de facto ace of this staff without a healthy Greene, Abbott may take a step back if we\u2019re to read into his peripherals. It\u2019s hard to see how he sustains a sub-3.00 ERA, pitching half his games in Cincinnati. On the positive side of things, Chase Burns (like Greene, a former No. 2 overall pick) showed outstanding stuff in his short period in the bigs and is probably one of the top young players to watch across baseball in 2026. He is currently dealing with a \u201crange of motion issue<\/a>\u201d that they\u2019re hoping isn\u2019t too serious.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n View Link<\/a><\/p>\n All in all, between Abbott, Burns, and Nick Lodolo, the Reds have an intriguing foundation even without Greene available, but it can\u2019t quite be expected to carry the load of what could be a fringe contender if all things break right. Moving over to the bullpen, Emilio Pag\u00e1n will be expected to live up to his resurgent 2025 campaign, set up primarily by Tony Santillan; the two combined to be one of the better late-inning duos in the National League last season. Trusting the pair, Cincinnati didn\u2019t make any high-profile acquisitions to bolster its bullpen. Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson are depth acquisitions to supplement Pag\u00e1n, who was brought back on a two-year deal worth $20 million, showcasing a bit of the skepticism the market had about Pag\u00e1n retaining that 2025 form.<\/p>\n Offensively, despite whiffing on their pursuit of Kyle Schwarber, Cincy has a few intriguing sluggers to keep an eye on ahead of 2026. After lighting up in the minors, Sal Stewart, a first-round pick in 2022, got a small opportunity in the bigs and answered the call with five homers in just 18 games. The youngster will get a free run to try and lock down a first base role that hasn\u2019t been totally spoken for since the better days of Joey Votto. Spencer Steer is a fine player, but his flexibility is best utilized playing in other positions rather than as the primary first baseman. Carrying on the theme of sluggers, 49-homer bat Eugenio Su\u00e1rez returns home, in a manner of speaking, on a one-year, $15-million contract that speaks for itself on why the Reds were more than happy to accommodate him as their primary DH. The man with 101 career bombs and a .504 SLG in Great American Ballpark should see his power play better there than it did in Seattle in the second half of 2025.<\/p>\n We went an entire paragraph on the club\u2019s offense without discussing the inhuman Elly De La Cruz, a player whose God-given talent matches up with anybody in the game. His highlight reel will be phenomenal, his Statcast page equally so, but the challenge is to take not just one but several steps forward. The .777 OPS De La Cruz put up last year is not fitting for a player of his skill set; if this is to become a very good offense, it needs De La Cruz producing as a perennial MVP, which he very well could do. The best-case for the Reds is that the quad injury<\/a> that Elly played through really affected his final 2025 numbers, and now recovered, he can get back to peak form.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n De La Cruz, however, isn\u2019t the only exciting Reds youngster who needs to do more in 2026. Matt McLain followed up an outstanding rookie campaign with an injury-riddled sophomore season. If he can regain that form we saw in 2024, the Reds could have one of the deadliest middle-infield partnerships in baseball, but that\u2019s a big if.<\/p>\n As you\u2019d expect, the Reds have the talent to compete for a Wild Card, but there are a lot of ifs and maybes and not very many certainties surrounding this team. They\u2019ll be fun to watch, and the NL Central isn\u2019t the gauntlet some other divisions are, but one is justified in being skeptical about this team\u2019s chances to make a lot of noise in 2026.<\/p>\n