As United States President Donald Trump tries to build a coalition of navies willing to open the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are negotiating safe passage directly with Iran, underscoring a new de facto reality, analysts say: Regardless of military results, Tehran is calling the shots on who gets to use the world\u2019s most important energy waterway.<\/p>\n
After US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian military leadership responded by focusing on its most potent form of leverage \u2013 Iran\u2019s geography. The country controls the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global crude oil and natural gas supplies pass. It is 33km (20 miles) wide at its narrowest point, so any naval force that wants to cross it becomes easy prey for Iranian attacks coming from the mainland.<\/p>\n
Recommended Stories list of 3 itemsend of list<\/p>\n
Considering insurance companies\u2019 low appetite for risk, it took relatively few attacks on vessels in the strait \u2013 or just the threat of them \u2013 to undermine market confidence and send insurance premiums shooting up, causing a near paralysis in maritime traffic. About 20 vessels have been attacked since the start of the war.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran has effectively proven that it dictates the terms of passage through the strait. They have now shown they are the gatekeeper of this important chokepoint. This will elevate the status of Iran in the geography of the Gulf,\u201d said Andreas Krieg, an associate professor in Security Studies at King\u2019s College London and a fellow at King\u2019s Institute of Middle Eastern Studies. This will be the new reality for the foreseeable future, he added.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, crude prices have risen above $100 a barrel, more than 20 percent higher than pre-war prices, forcing countries to make the biggest releases of emergency reserves in history. Gas prices have risen by more than 40 percent since the war began.<\/p>\n
Trump initially floated the idea of ordering the US Navy to escort vessels through the waterway. He then appealed to some countries to send warships and warned NATO members they would face \u201ca very bad\u201d future if these allies failed to help in opening the strait. But the appeal was either turned down or received noncommittal responses. Japan said it had no plans to deploy naval vessels. Australia ruled out sending ships. The United Kingdom said it would not be drawn into the wider war. Germany sent a clear message: \u201cThis is not our war\u201d.<\/p>\n
Others<\/a> decided to take action \u2013 but not of the kind that Trump asked for. On Saturday, two India-flagged gas tankers passed through the strait after days of negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran, including a phone call between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ships from Pakistan, Turkiye and China also have transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times has reported that Italy and France have also reached out to Iran for deals although Italian authorities have rejected making such an overture.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Windward, a maritime intelligence tracking group, said<\/a> that while traffic in the strait on Tuesday remained 97 percent below average, a growing number of ships have been passing through Iran\u2019s territorial waters, suggesting that Tehran is allowing \u201cpermission-based transit\u201d.<\/p>\n \u2018It is up to us to decide\u2019<\/p>\n There is a precedent for US naval forces to escort convoys through the strait dating back to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. But today\u2019s scenario is different, experts said. Back then, the US, while it was backing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, was not a direct party to the conflict. Iran was still in a post-revolutionary process of consolidating power, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was nowhere near as organised as it is today.<\/p>\n Today, Iran has drones that its factories are capable of producing on a large scale and has been using them. Iranian forces could also use small boats to assault tankers, deploy mines and engage in other guerrilla-style tactics. While there are conflicting reports on whether Iran has placed mines in the strait, experts said it would be a counterproductive move for Tehran because it would disrupt the passage for any ships \u2013 Iranian vessels included \u2013 and it would take away from Tehran the power to choose who may pass.<\/p>\n Iranian officials are aware of their geographic advantage. \u201cThis is up to our military to decide,\u201d Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, referring to who will be allowed to use the strait.<\/p>\n Pro-government figures increasingly frame the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic bargaining tool beyond the war itself, suggesting the waterway could be used to extract compensation, sanctions relief or broader economic concessions after the war, Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and visiting fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, commented on X.<\/p>\n Recent attacks seem to suggest that Iran wants to increase its pressure on the energy market.<\/p>\n