We\u2019d expect the Bank to cut rates this month but offer very little in terms of forward guidance, besides reiterating its bias for further \u201cgradual\u201d and \u201ccareful\u201d cuts. <\/p>\n
Instead, much of the investor focus will be on the vote split. At least one official \u2013 Catherine Mann \u2013 is likely to vote for no change. She may be joined by Huw Pill and Megan Greene, though a lack of recent commentary from either makes that hard to assess. At the opposite end of the spectrum, arch-dove Swati Dhingra is likely to vote for a larger 50bp cut. Fellow dove Alan Taylor might be tempted to join her, though he recently said he\u2019d like to see three more cuts this year, which tends to suggest he\u2019ll vote for 25bp moves at each meeting. Dave Ramsden is also one to watch.<\/p>\n
If we had to guess, we suspect we\u2019ll get seven members voting for the 25bp rate cut, with one dissenter in either alternative camp (no change\/50bp cut). Whatever happens, don\u2019t read too much into it. History tells us that the vote split has very little predictive power for future decisions, though obviously that doesn\u2019t stop markets reacting to it on the day.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll also be watching for any hints on the Bank\u2019s annual decision on quantitative tightening, due in September. Focus is on whether the Bank will reduce its current annual gilt reduction target from \u00a3100bn, given recent strains in the gilt market \u2013 or alternatively whether it skews sales away from longer-dated bonds. This month\u2019s Monetary Policy Report will likely comment on whether QT is having a greater impact on bond yields. And if it is, that might be a precursor for a slower pace of active gilt sales. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We\u2019d expect the Bank to cut rates this month but offer very little in terms of forward guidance,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53314,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[28,112],"class_list":{"0":"post-53313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53313\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}