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<\/p>\nTwo years ago, the Vegas Golden Knights believed they had found their franchise goalie.<\/p>\n
Adin Hill backstopped the team to a Stanley Cup in 2023 and followed it up with a strong 2023-24 season. Logan Thompson, once in the mix, was traded away that summer.<\/p>\n
Now Vegas probably wishes it could hit the undo button.<\/p>\n
Hill has been one of the worst goalies in the NHL (.869 save percentage), leaving Vegas searching for answers in net \u2014 just one year into his mega six-year contract. Meanwhile, Thompson has emerged as one of the league\u2019s best starters since joining the Washington Capitals.<\/p>\n
Stories like this are why some people believe that goaltending is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Every season, some highly paid starters like Hill, Sergei Bobrovsky or Linus Ullmark mysteriously struggle, while unknowns or journeymen like Alex Lyon, Brandon Bussi and Scott Wedgewood emerge to carry their teams. Only a few netminders, like Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin, are consistently elite.<\/p>\n
NHL goaltending is quickly becoming one of the most volatile positions in all major sports. Here\u2019s some evidence to support that belief, along with possible explanations for why.<\/p>\n
If an NHL team spends $6 million on a forward, you\u2019d generally expect that player to be more productive and valuable than a forward making $2 million. That isn\u2019t always the case, but on average, in an efficient market, more money should buy better outcomes.<\/p>\n
However, in goaltending, that link between price and performance is broken.<\/p>\n
Below is a table showing how many cap dollars each NHL team is spending on its goaltending tandem and the results they\u2019re posting. Traditionally, save percentage has been used to measure goalie performance. The problem with save percentage is it treats a long-distance point shot the same as a breakaway. It doesn\u2019t account for shot quality and defensive environment, which can heavily skew a goalie\u2019s save percentage for better or worse. To account for shot quality, we\u2019ll use a metric called goals saved above expected (GSAx).<\/p>\n
GSAx analyzes the quality of shots and scoring chances each team has surrendered. It then calculates how many goals a league-average netminder would have allowed based on that team\u2019s shots and chances allowed, and compares that to how many goals a team\u2019s goaltender has actually given up.<\/p>\n
For example, Ilya Sorokin, the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy this year, has a plus-29.9 GSAx, meaning Sorokin has allowed roughly 30 goals fewer compared to a league-average goalie plugged into the same defensive environment. On the other hand, Jordan Binnington has a league-worst minus-25.4 GSAx, meaning he\u2019s cost his team about 25 goals compared to an NHL-average goalie.<\/p>\n
Interestingly, there is zero statistical correlation between how much each team spends on its goaltending tandem this season and the club\u2019s overall goaltending results, whether you look at GSAx or even a simpler metric like save percentage.<\/p>\n
Goalie Tandem Investment & Performance<\/p>\n
Team<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tandem Cap Hit<\/p>\n
\u25bc<\/p>\n
Tandem’s Results (Goals Saved Above Expected)<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
$13.1M<\/p>\n
+11.1<\/p>\n
$12.3M<\/p>\n
+12.6<\/p>\n
$11.1M<\/p>\n
-17.2<\/p>\n
$11M<\/p>\n
+37.4<\/p>\n
$10.9M<\/p>\n
+13.3<\/p>\n
$10.8M<\/p>\n
+12.9<\/p>\n
$10.8M<\/p>\n
-4.1<\/p>\n
$9.5M<\/p>\n
-3.9<\/p>\n
$9.4M<\/p>\n
-15.7<\/p>\n
$9.3M<\/p>\n
-31.3<\/p>\n
$9.3M<\/p>\n
+14.4<\/p>\n
$9.3M<\/p>\n
+2.4<\/p>\n
$8.9M<\/p>\n
+28<\/p>\n
$8.9M<\/p>\n
+13.4<\/p>\n
$8.6M<\/p>\n
-2.7<\/p>\n
$8.3M<\/p>\n
-24.2<\/p>\n
$7.8M<\/p>\n
-1.7<\/p>\n
$7.5M<\/p>\n
+4.4<\/p>\n
$7.3M<\/p>\n
+10.6<\/p>\n
$6.8M<\/p>\n
+21.7<\/p>\n
$6.5M<\/p>\n
-16.7<\/p>\n
$6.3M<\/p>\n
+19.2<\/p>\n
$6.2M<\/p>\n
+11.1<\/p>\n
$6.2M<\/p>\n
+2<\/p>\n
$6M<\/p>\n
+18.5<\/p>\n
$5.3M<\/p>\n
+9.2<\/p>\n
$4.8M<\/p>\n
-4.8<\/p>\n
$4.8M<\/p>\n
+3.4<\/p>\n
$4.5M<\/p>\n
-3.6<\/p>\n
$4.1M<\/p>\n
+1<\/p>\n
$3.5M<\/p>\n
+6.3<\/p>\n
$1.6M<\/p>\n
+14.1<\/p>\n
Data from March 16<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
We have cases where budget goalie teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Buffalo Sabres and Carolina Hurricanes are getting significantly better netminding results than big spenders like the St. Louis Blues, Ottawa Senators and Vancouver Canucks. In fact, the 10 highest-spending teams are getting a combined plus-15.1 GSAx from their netminders, whereas the bottom-10 spending teams are receiving a combined plus-57.2 GSAx.<\/p>\n
If you look at the NHL\u2019s nine worst goalies in terms of GSAx, seven of them have a cap hit of at least $4.5 million. This includes some established names and Stanley Cup winners, including Ullmark, Bobrovsky, Binnington, Jacob Markstrom, Hill, Tristan Jarry and Kevin Lankinen.<\/p>\n
NHL’s Worst Goalies of 2025-26 by GSAx<\/p>\n
Player<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cap Hit<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Goals Saved Above Expected<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
$6M<\/p>\n
-25.4<\/p>\n
$1.05M<\/p>\n
-20.7<\/p>\n
$10M<\/p>\n
-14.1<\/p>\n
$1.45M<\/p>\n
-12.9<\/p>\n
$4.5M<\/p>\n
-12.8<\/p>\n
$6M<\/p>\n
-12.3<\/p>\n
$5.375M<\/p>\n
-11.7<\/p>\n
$6.25M<\/p>\n
-11<\/p>\n
$8.25M<\/p>\n
-8.9<\/p>\n
If you zoom out and look at the big picture, there are a staggering number of bad or risky goalie contracts teams have signed over the past few seasons.<\/p>\n
Recent Contracts Aging Poorly\/Very Risky<\/p>\n
Player<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Contract Terms<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Contract Years<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Team that signed deal<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Jack Campbell<\/p>\n
$5M x 5<\/p>\n
2022-2027 (bought out)<\/p>\n
Edmonton Oilers<\/p>\n
Adin Hill<\/p>\n
$6.25M x 6<\/p>\n
2025-2031<\/p>\n
Vegas Golden Knights<\/p>\n
Elvis Merzlikins<\/p>\n
$5.4M x 5<\/p>\n
2022-2027<\/p>\n
Columbus Blue Jackets<\/p>\n
Tristan Jarry<\/p>\n
$5.375M x 5<\/p>\n
2023-2028<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh Penguins<\/p>\n
Thatcher Demko<\/p>\n
$8.5M x 3<\/p>\n
2026-2029<\/p>\n
Vancouver Canucks<\/p>\n
Cal Petersen<\/p>\n
$5M x 3<\/p>\n
2022-2025<\/p>\n
L.A. Kings<\/p>\n
Jacob Markstrom<\/p>\n
$6M x 2<\/p>\n
2026-2028<\/p>\n
New Jersey Devils<\/p>\n
Linus Ullmark<\/p>\n
$8.25M x 4<\/p>\n
2025-2029<\/p>\n
Ottawa Senators<\/p>\n
Jordan Binnington<\/p>\n
$6M x 6<\/p>\n
2021-2027<\/p>\n
St. Louis Blues<\/p>\n
Kevin Lankinen<\/p>\n
$4.5M x 5<\/p>\n
2025-2030<\/p>\n
Vancouver Canucks<\/p>\n
Alexandar Georgiev<\/p>\n
$3.4M x 3<\/p>\n
2022-2025<\/p>\n
Colorado Avalanche<\/p>\n
Joonas Korpisalo<\/p>\n
$4M x 5<\/p>\n
2023-2028<\/p>\n
Ottawa Senators<\/p>\n
Philipp Grubauer<\/p>\n
$5.9M x 6<\/p>\n
2021-2027<\/p>\n
Seattle Kraken<\/p>\n
Petr Mrazek<\/p>\n
$4.25M x 2<\/p>\n
2024-2026<\/p>\n
Chicago Blackhawks<\/p>\n
Ville Husso<\/p>\n
$4.75M x 3<\/p>\n
2022-2025<\/p>\n
Detroit Red Wings<\/p>\n
Anthony Stolarz<\/p>\n
$3.75M x 4<\/p>\n
2026-2030<\/p>\n
Toronto Maple Leafs<\/p>\n
Ivan Fedotov<\/p>\n
$3.25M x 2<\/p>\n
2024-2026<\/p>\n
Philadelphia Flyers<\/p>\n
Top goalies aren\u2019t stealing playoff series as often as they used to<\/p>\n
Some top goalies are also struggling to live up to expectations in the playoffs more often than they used to. Last year, for example, the three Vezina Trophy finalists \u2014 Hellebuyck (.866 save percentage), Vasilevskiy (.872), and Darcy Kuemper (.889) all posted very disappointing postseason numbers.<\/p>\n
To see if this was part of a bigger trend, I looked at every playoff series since 2020. I identified which team had the superior goaltender on paper before the series started (based on their regular-season GSAx rating) and then tracked whether that team won the series.<\/p>\n
For example, when the Florida Panthers beat the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final, I tracked that as a series where the team with the superior goaltender on paper won because Bobrovsky entered the series with better regular-season numbers than Stuart Skinner. Conversely, when the Dallas Stars lost to the Oilers in the Western Conference, I counted it as a series where the team with the better goaltender on paper (Jake Oettinger) lost to a weaker one (Skinner).<\/p>\n
From 2020 to 2022, the team with the superior goaltender on paper won 33 of 45 playoff series, which is a 73 percent win rate. Having the more established netminder made a team more likely to win the series during those years.<\/p>\n
That has flipped lately, though.<\/p>\n
From 2023 to 2025, the team with the more established goaltender won only 17 of 45 playoff series, a 38 percent win rate. For every situation where a star goalie like Bobrovsky is winning over a weaker one in Skinner, there are actually more instances recently where the Hellebuyck types underperform and lose, or where a Skinner gets hot for a series and outplays an Oettinger.<\/p>\n
Maybe this is just a blip on the radar that will normalize in future years. But it\u2019s also possible we\u2019re entering a new golden age of offense and scoring, where the quality of a team\u2019s skaters and their two-way play, both defensively and offensively, is a more significant driver of wins and losses than the quality of a team\u2019s goaltender. This isn\u2019t to say \u201cgoaltending doesn\u2019t matter\u201d because that would be an extremely foolish take, but it is fair to wonder if the position has less of an influence on winning compared to 10-15 years ago because of how advanced offenses are becoming.<\/p>\n
NHL offenses have found a new level, and goalies haven\u2019t caught up yet<\/p>\n
In 2015-16, the average save percentage for a goaltender was .915. Fast-forward a decade later, and the average save percentage has collapsed down to .896, which is the lowest mark since 1993-94, when the butterfly goaltending style was still in its infancy stage. The NHL has recently changed how it tracks shots on goal<\/a> \u2014 goalies no longer get credited with a save for stopping borderline shots if the puck\u2019s trajectory was estimated to miss the net \u2014 but that\u2019s only part of the drop in save percentage.<\/p>\n There are two possible explanations for this dramatic decline: Offenses have evolved to become significantly more dangerous, and\/or goalies have become worse. The first part of that equation is quite obvious to the eye. Players are faster, more skilled and better at shooting than ever before. There\u2019s also been a massive tactical shift \u2014 with analytics growing in popularity, teams have a far better understanding of what types of scoring chances goalies struggle with, and have optimized their offensive strategy accordingly.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s as challenging as it\u2019s ever been in my career,\u201d said Canucks goaltender Kevin Lankinen. \u201cI\u2019ve only been in the league for six years, but I see the (offensive) development and where it\u2019s going\u2026 The game has changed where there\u2019s not many teams who just send (low-danger shots) toward the net. Teams are doing more with the advanced stats and (targeting) what are the high-quality scoring chances. There\u2019s a lot more east-west (movement) than ever before.\u201d<\/p>\n The stats back this up. According to former NHL goalie Steve Valiquette, who founded Clear Sight Analytics, the number of unscreened shots from long range \u2014 which are very easy shots for goalies to save \u2014 declined nearly 28 percent between 2018 and 2024<\/a>. Meanwhile, the number of shots right after plays or passes that crossed the middle of the ice \u2014 which is the challenging \u201ceast-west\u201d movement Lankinen was referring to \u2014 jumped by 41 percent between 2018 and 2023.<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cOne of the reasons that I\u2019ve always said that if I was a general manager I would try my best to avoid term when it came to goaltending is because we\u2019ve literally seen guys sign contracts and the strength of their game when they signed a big deal no longer works, because the NHL attack has changed so much by the time the contract expires,\u201d said Kevin Woodley, a goaltending expert for InGoal Magazine, which has relationships with goalies and teams all around the league.<\/p>\n