{"id":550690,"date":"2026-03-28T15:57:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T15:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/550690\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T15:57:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T15:57:20","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-saturday-keep-an-eye-on-hitters-at-wrigley-field","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/550690\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Saturday: Keep an eye on hitters at Wrigley Field"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyMar 28, 2026, 10:45 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Saturday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Pete Crow-Armstrong<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 TB (-110)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.49 EV
One reason to bet this: Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s fifth-deepest RF fences; given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).<\/p>\n

Nico Hoerner<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+113)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.60 EV
One reason to bet this: My system projects Wrigley Field as the fifth-worst field in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.<\/p>\n

Bo Naylor<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+112)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.54 EV
One reason to bet this: 10% of the time that Naylor has started against a right-handed starter since the beginning of last season, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.<\/p>\n

Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Jacob deGrom<\/a> | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)
Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.38 EV
One reason to bet this: The projection system expects deGrom to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.<\/p>\n

Tyler Glasnow<\/a> | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with an $18.39 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather conditions forecasts for the second-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.<\/p>\n

Michael Wacha<\/a> | UNDER 3.5 K (+127)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with an $18.22 EV
One reason to bet this: Wacha didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his previous outing, and compiled two strikeouts.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

OPP.<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Joe Boyle<\/p>\n

@ STL<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

47.5<\/p>\n

-7.21<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+122<\/p>\n

-7.21<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O +102<\/p>\n

6.78<\/p>\n

-21.32<\/p>\n

Michael McGreevy<\/p>\n

vs. TB<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

52.5<\/p>\n

-1.91<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-159<\/p>\n

-1.91<\/p>\n

U -122<\/p>\n

11.09<\/p>\n

Miles Mikolas<\/p>\n

@ CHC<\/p>\n

+194<\/p>\n

36.0<\/p>\n

4.11<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

4.11<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -120<\/p>\n

8.86<\/p>\n

-12.57<\/p>\n

Cade Horton<\/p>\n

vs. WSH<\/p>\n

-240<\/p>\n

64.0<\/p>\n

-8.50<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

-8.50<\/p>\n

U +100<\/p>\n

4.62<\/p>\n

Jeffrey Springs<\/p>\n

@ TOR<\/p>\n

+159<\/p>\n

35.1<\/p>\n

-10.62<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

-10.62<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

8.46<\/p>\n

-9.64<\/p>\n

Dylan Cease<\/p>\n

vs. ATH<\/p>\n

-193<\/p>\n

64.9<\/p>\n

-0.58<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

-0.58<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

1.18<\/p>\n

Taj Bradley<\/p>\n

@ BAL<\/p>\n

+139<\/p>\n

42.4<\/p>\n

1.41<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

1.41<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

7.88<\/p>\n

-10.32<\/p>\n

Kyle Bradish<\/p>\n

vs. MIN<\/p>\n

-168<\/p>\n

57.6<\/p>\n

-8.16<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-116<\/p>\n

-8.16<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

1.58<\/p>\n

Jacob deGrom<\/p>\n

@ PHI<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

50.4<\/p>\n

-1.87<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

-1.87<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -120<\/p>\n

7.91<\/p>\n

0.80<\/p>\n

Aaron Nola<\/p>\n

vs. TEX<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

49.6<\/p>\n

-7.16<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

-7.16<\/p>\n

U +100<\/p>\n

-9.96<\/p>\n

Michael Lorenzen<\/p>\n

@ MIA<\/p>\n

+159<\/p>\n

39.4<\/p>\n

1.48<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+108<\/p>\n

1.48<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O +102<\/p>\n

8.12<\/p>\n

0.98<\/p>\n

Eury Perez<\/p>\n

vs. COL<\/p>\n

-193<\/p>\n

60.6<\/p>\n

-7.67<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-140<\/p>\n

-7.67<\/p>\n

U -122<\/p>\n

-9.00<\/p>\n

Sonny Gray<\/p>\n

@ CIN<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

58.1<\/p>\n

0.43<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

0.43<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -114<\/p>\n

7.51<\/p>\n

-15.77<\/p>\n

Brady Singer<\/p>\n

vs. BOS<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

41.9<\/p>\n

-10.43<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

-10.43<\/p>\n

U -106<\/p>\n

7.14<\/p>\n

Mitch Keller<\/p>\n

@ NYM<\/p>\n

+149<\/p>\n

36.2<\/p>\n

-10.38<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-101<\/p>\n

-10.38<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

7.44<\/p>\n

-14.47<\/p>\n

David Peterson<\/p>\n

vs. PIT<\/p>\n

-181<\/p>\n

63.8<\/p>\n

-0.63<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-128<\/p>\n

-0.63<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

5.22<\/p>\n

Reid Detmers<\/p>\n

@ HOU<\/p>\n

+123<\/p>\n

44.7<\/p>\n

-0.63<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-124<\/p>\n

-0.63<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -101<\/p>\n

9.24<\/p>\n

-10.13<\/p>\n

Cristian Javier<\/p>\n

vs. LAA<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

55.3<\/p>\n

-7.35<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

-7.35<\/p>\n

U -120<\/p>\n

0.54<\/p>\n

Sean Burke<\/p>\n

@ MIL<\/p>\n

+159<\/p>\n

44.3<\/p>\n

15.10<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

15.10<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

8.04<\/p>\n

-16.74<\/p>\n

Chad Patrick<\/p>\n

vs. CWS<\/p>\n

-194<\/p>\n

55.7<\/p>\n

-15.80<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

-15.80<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

8.78<\/p>\n

Michael Wacha<\/p>\n

@ ATL<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

44.6<\/p>\n

1.81<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-119<\/p>\n

1.81<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.87<\/p>\n

-8.11<\/p>\n

Reynaldo Lopez<\/p>\n

vs. KC<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

55.5<\/p>\n

-8.86<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-109<\/p>\n

-8.86<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-1.02<\/p>\n

Will Warren<\/p>\n

@ SF<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

55.4<\/p>\n

-1.45<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-104<\/p>\n

-1.45<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.98<\/p>\n

-8.01<\/p>\n

Tyler Mahle<\/p>\n

vs. NYY<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

44.6<\/p>\n

-7.81<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-125<\/p>\n

-7.81<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-1.01<\/p>\n

Jack Flaherty<\/p>\n

@ SD<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

54.1<\/p>\n

2.25<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+111<\/p>\n

2.25<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -116<\/p>\n

8.36<\/p>\n

-11.27<\/p>\n

Randy Vasquez<\/p>\n

vs. DET<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

46.0<\/p>\n

-11.54<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-145<\/p>\n

-11.54<\/p>\n

U -104<\/p>\n

2.69<\/p>\n

Eduardo Rodriguez<\/p>\n

@ LAD<\/p>\n

+203<\/p>\n

35.1<\/p>\n

3.32<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

3.32<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

9.73<\/p>\n

-2.56<\/p>\n

Tyler Glasnow<\/p>\n

vs. ARI<\/p>\n

-252<\/p>\n

64.9<\/p>\n

-7.95<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

-7.95<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-6.35<\/p>\n

Joey Cantillo<\/p>\n

@ SEA<\/p>\n

+153<\/p>\n

40.9<\/p>\n

3.88<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

3.88<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

7.05<\/p>\n

-7.11<\/p>\n

Bryan Woo<\/p>\n

vs. CLE<\/p>\n

-186<\/p>\n

59.1<\/p>\n

-9.37<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-133<\/p>\n

-9.37<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-2.00<\/p>\n

Top betting trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

Minnesota Twins<\/a> Game Total UNDER
The Twins’ team totals have gone under in nine straight games. (+9.00 Units \/ 92% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -105<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
In 12 of their last 20 games, the Blue Jays have been leading after the first five innings. (12-4-4) (+9.85 Units \/ 41% ROI). Current odds: -195<\/p>\n

Washington Nationals<\/a> 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
The Nationals have been leading in three of their last five away games after the first five innings. (+4.15 Units \/ 83% ROI). Current odds: +165<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyMar 28, 2026, 10:45 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":550691,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[363,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-550690","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-mlb","9":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}