LeBron James sees and hears everything. Need proof?<\/p>\n
\u201cI mean, it sells papers a lot easier \u2014 and clippings and podcasts \u2014 if you say, \u2018LeBron, the team is better off without him,\u2019\u201d James told reporters<\/a> earlier this month after the Lakers beat the Miami Heat. \u201cA lot of people will view it. So, I get it\u2026They\u2019re absolutely wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n LeBron notably left out blogs, so let\u2019s put his notion to the test.<\/p>\n The notion that the Lakers were better off without LeBron had been floating around<\/a> this season, in large part due to some concerning on\/off splits. As Sam Amick of The Athletic noted<\/a>, lineups featuring LeBron, Luka Don\u010di\u0107 and Austin Reaves had a minus-4.9 net rating in 238 combined minutes through Feb. 27 this season.<\/p>\n Since then, that trio has boasted a net rating of plus-21.1 in 287 minutes<\/a>.<\/p>\n So, no, the Lakers are not better off without LeBron this season. Next season, though? That\u2019s an entirely different question.<\/p>\n Why Reaves\u2019 cap hold is the key<\/p>\n After last year\u2019s trade deadline, we broke down why Austin Reaves was the key to the Lakers\u2019 post-LeBron future<\/a>. The TL;DR version: He\u2019s going to be in a unique spot as a free agent\u2014one which could greatly benefit the Lakers.<\/p>\n Reaves figures to sign a max or near-max contract this offseason once he inevitably turns down his $14.9 million player option for the 2026-27 season. However, since he\u2019s not coming off a standard rookie-scale contract, he\u2019ll count differently against the Lakers\u2019 books than a former first-round pick would.<\/p>\n At $13.9 million<\/a> this season, Reaves is earning more than the NBA\u2019s average salary<\/a>. Until the Lakers re-sign him or he signs elsewhere as a free agent, his cap hold will be 150% of his salary this year<\/a>, or roughly $20.9 million.<\/p>\n Based on the current $165 million projection<\/a> for the 2026-27 salary cap, a max contract for someone with Reaves\u2019 amount of NBA experience would start at $41.25 million. Reaves will count against the Lakers\u2019 books as more than $20 million less than that at the start of free agency.<\/p>\n From there, it\u2019s just order of operations. The Lakers figure to first spend their roughly $50 million<\/a> in cap space \u2014 a figure which includes Reaves\u2019 cap hold \u2014 before re-signing Reaves. Since they have full Bird rights on Reaves, they\u2019re allowed to re-sign him to anything up to a max deal even if they\u2019re over the salary cap.<\/p>\n The Philadelphia 76ers did this same trick<\/a> with Tyrese Maxey during the 2024 offseason, which is what gave them enough cap space to sign Paul George in free agency. Maxey had a cap hold of only $13 million, but he wound up signing a max deal starting at $35.5 million after the Sixers spent the rest of their cap space. (In retrospect, they might have been better off not taking advantage of Maxey\u2019s cheap cap hold.)<\/p>\n Much like the Sixers in 2024, Reaves\u2019 below-market cap hold is a use-it-or-lose-it opportunity for the Lakers. Once he signs his next contract, he\u2019ll be on the books for that amount moving forward. This offseason is their only chance to take advantage of the Reaves\u2019 cap-hold maneuver.<\/p>\n That brings us back to LeBron.<\/p>\n How much less would LeBron take?<\/p>\n According to Spotrac\u2019s Keith Smith<\/a>, the Lakers, Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets are the only three teams projected to have at least $40 million of cap space this offseason. The Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons could each have at least $25 million, but there\u2019s a chance both operate as over-the-cap teams instead.<\/p>\n So, barring a sign-and-trade, LeBron doesn\u2019t have an obvious destination that can pay him anywhere close to a max contract this offseason. The Lakers could do so, but they shouldn\u2019t.<\/p>\n If Reaves signs a max or near-max deal this offseason, he and Luka are going to gobble up more than 50% of the Lakers\u2019 cap space each year moving forward. The Lakers will still have flexibility to retool around those two, but because of the Reaves cap-hold trick, this offseason is their best opportunity to either bring in a third star or land players on medium-sized contracts to round out their supporting cast.<\/p>\n The free-agent class has already begun to get picked clean by extensions, but plenty of starter-caliber players<\/a> are still set to hit the market. They could throw big money at a restricted free agent such as Walker Kessler, Peyton Watson<\/a> or Bennedict Mathurin, or they could go hunting for value among the unrestricted free agents. Either way, the opportunity to play alongside Luka and Reaves should make the Lakers an especially appealing destination. (Lakers Exceptionalism strikes again!)<\/p>\n If LeBron is willing to settle for the $9.4 million room mid-level exception, he wouldn\u2019t cut into the Lakers\u2019 spending power at all. They could spend their cap space first, then sign LeBron with the room MLE and re-sign Reaves. But if he wants more than that, he would eat into their cap space.<\/p>\n If the Lakers go on a deep playoff run this season, perhaps they\u2019ll decide it\u2019s worth bringing him back for a farewell tour even if it comes at the expense of their long-term future. However, they\u2019ve spent all year signaling that they\u2019re firmly focused on the Don\u010di\u0107 era moving forward. That decreases the likelihood that they\u2019d be willing to spend major money to bring back James, no matter how impactful he might still be.<\/p>\n So, Lakers fans should enjoy these next few months with LeBron. They very well might be his last in a Lakers uniform.<\/p>\n Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com<\/a>, PBPStats<\/a>, Cleaning the Glass<\/a> or Basketball Reference<\/a>. All salary information via Spotrac<\/a> and salary-cap information via RealGM<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"LeBron James sees and hears everything. 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