{"id":557665,"date":"2026-04-01T06:11:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T06:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/557665\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T06:11:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T06:11:12","slug":"this-is-a-hiring-recession-economists-raise-red-flags-at-latest-gloomy-data-in-trump-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/557665\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;This Is a Hiring Recession&#8217;: Economists Raise Red Flags at Latest Gloomy Data in Trump Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Tuesday continued to show weakness in the American jobs market.<\/p>\n<p>The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">shows<\/a> that the number of new hires in February decreased to 4.8 million, which was roughly 400,000 fewer hires than were recorded in February 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The report also shows that the US hiring rate in February fell to just 3.1%, which is the lowest rate since April 2020, when the economy was shut down due to the global <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/covid-19\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Covid-19<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/pandemic\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pandemic<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The good news in the report is that the number of quits and layoffs remained relatively steady, meaning that people who already have jobs are retaining them at a healthy clip.<\/p>\n<p>But Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that these bad hiring numbers came before President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/donald-trump\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Donald Trump<\/a> launched an illegal war with Iran, which has since destabilized global energy markets and raised prices for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/oil\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">oil<\/a>, gasoline, and diesel fuel.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This is a hiring recession,&#8221; Long <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/byHeatherLong\/status\/2038981709077553543\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">wrote<\/a> in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/social-media\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">social media<\/a> post. &#8220;And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction. Bottom line: The job market was already frozen before the war in Iran began. It&#8217;s worrying that a &#8216;no hire, no fire&#8217; situation could turn into a &#8216;no hire, start to fire&#8217; job market quickly if there isn&#8217;t a resolution soon.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Long&#8217;s analysis was echoed by Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at hiring site Indeed, who wrote in a research note <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/03\/31\/hiring-rate-jobs-employment-iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">flagged<\/a> by Axios that hiring in the US &#8220;was stuck in neutral going into this [Iran] conflict,&#8221; and &#8220;getting it into gear just got harder&#8221; thanks to the war.<\/p>\n<p>Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/econberger.bsky.social\/post\/3mieevd6r6k2g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">noted<\/a> that hiring rates in the US hit 3.1% or lower the last two times the country was in a severe recession.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;3.1% is not only comparable to the Covid low point\u2014it&#8217;s also comparable to late 2009 and early 2010, when the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/unemployment\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unemployment<\/a> rate was around 10%,&#8221; Berger explained. &#8220;Hiring was ice cold in February.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Scott Lincicome, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute who has been a harsh critic of Trump&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/tariffs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">tariffs<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/scottlincicome\/status\/2039026002219688242\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">found<\/a> that the February JOLTS report wiped out an unexpected January increase in manufacturing job openings that the president&#8217;s allies attributed to his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/trade\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">trade<\/a> policies.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Alas, the perils of cherry-picking,&#8221; Lincicome commented.<\/p>\n<p>The new data on hiring in the US job market comes weeks after a BLS report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/news\/jobs-report-february-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">estimated<\/a> that the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. On the whole, the American economy has posted a net loss of jobs since Trump announced his \u201cliberation day\u201d global <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/tag\/tariffs\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">tariffs<\/a> in April 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Tuesday continued to show weakness in the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":557666,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,54158,101,228242,134,759,247489],"class_list":{"0":"post-557665","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cato-institute","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-iran-war","12":"tag-jobs","13":"tag-tariffs","14":"tag-us-bureau-of-labor-statistics"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557665\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}