<\/p>\n Eloundou et al<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n
Importantly, the researchers didn\u2019t even set a self-imposed deadline for when these effects would be seen in future software. \u201cWe do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs,\u201d the researchers write, creating an essentially unbounded horizon that limits the predictive power of this kind of projection.<\/p>\n
Digging into some of the examples shows how much the labelers are assuming about LLM capabilities going forward, too. For instance, the researchers predict that negotiating purchases or contracts could be impacted by LLMs because \u201cyou could have each party transcribe their point of view and then feed this to an LLM to resolve any disputes.\u201d While some people might use LLMs in this way at some point, even the researchers blithely admit that \u201cmany people would need to buy into using new technological tools to accomplish this.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s these forward-looking assumptions about LLM-powered software that generate the more eye-popping \u201ctheoretical capability\u201d numbers, such as those cited by Anthropic. By the most generous read of this measure, the researchers predict that \u201cbetween 47 and 56 percent of all tasks\u201d will eventually be made at least 50 percent faster by LLMs and that 19 percent of all workers \u201care in an occupation where over half of its tasks are labeled as exposed.\u201d That expands to 100 percent of all job-related tasks for some \u201cfully exposed\u201d occupations, including \u201cmathematicians,\u201d \u201cwriters and authors,\u201d and \u201cweb and digital interface designers,\u201d according to the researchers.<\/p>\n
I guess we\u2019ll find out<\/p>\n
Even here, though, it\u2019s important to note that the researchers are not suggesting LLMs will be able to replace humans or work unassisted at these tasks. Using LLM-powered software to speed up a human job task is not the same as wholly replacing human labor with that same software.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This was the environment in which AI experts were being asked to project the future job-altering capabilities of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":557786,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[182,181,507,74],"class_list":{"0":"post-557785","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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