{"id":560025,"date":"2026-04-02T10:28:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T10:28:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/560025\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T10:28:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T10:28:09","slug":"it-all-depends-on-the-crop-gulf-crisis-hits-south-asia-farmers-agriculture-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/560025\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018It all depends on the crop\u2019: Gulf crisis hits South Asia farmers | Agriculture News"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gurdaspur, Punjab, India \u2013 Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year.<\/p>\n

Standing at the edge of his wheat field in northwest Punjab\u2019s Gurdaspur, he runs through the numbers in his head, totting up fertiliser costs, expected yield, and market prices.<\/p>\n

Then he shifts to more personal concerns: School fees, household expenses, loan repayments and the money he has been saving for his daughter Varsha\u2019s wedding.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know if we can afford it this year,\u201d he says. \u201cEverything depends on the crop.\u201d<\/p>\n

The uncertainty has crept in quietly.<\/p>\n

Fertiliser, once a fairly predictable staple in farming, has become more expensive and harder to secure in time. For Kumar, it is not so much a question of cost as it is the difference between stability and strain.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,\u201d he says. \u201cMaybe delay the wedding. If things get worse \u2026 even children\u2019s education becomes difficult.\u201d<\/p>\n

School fees for his eldest son, Amit, 12, are due in the coming weeks, and Kumar has been setting aside money for his younger daughter Varsha\u2019s future wedding.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s never easily affordable, even in good times. \u201cWe somehow manage,\u201d Kumar says. \u201cBut if the harvest is weak, then we have to think about what to prioritise, what to delay.\u201d<\/p>\n

For farmers like him across South Asia, the United States-Israel war on Iran \u2013 unfolding thousands of kilometres away \u2013 is not just a matter of distant geopolitics.<\/p>\n

It is shaping decisions inside their homes.<\/p>\n

\"SAA worker pours fertiliser into a sack at a storage facility in Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir [Sajad Hameed\/Al Jazeera]A distant crisis with local consequences<\/p>\n

At the centre of the unfolding crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) from India\u2019s northern plains. It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf and its oil producers to the open ocean and, from there, to global markets.<\/p>\n

About one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through this body of water, which Iran closed down shortly after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28.<\/p>\n

Vast volumes of LNG, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers, are transported from Gulf producers to Asia via this route. Any disruption can delay shipments, push up freight and insurance costs and place a stranglehold on supply.<\/p>\n

Interruptions to the supply of fertiliser can ripple quickly, reducing crop yields, increasing costs and raising food prices.<\/p>\n

The risks are already being felt thousands of kilometres away.<\/p>\n

South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, relies heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to produce staple crops such as wheat and rice. Over the past few decades, the increasing use of fertilisers \u2013 which can hugely boost crop yields \u2013 has played a key role in agricultural productivity across the region.<\/p>\n

The agriculture sector now employs about 46 percent of the workforce in India, about 38 percent in Pakistan, nearly 40 percent in Bangladesh, and more than 60 percent in Nepal.<\/p>\n

\"SAA farmer spreads fertiliser around apple trees in an orchard in Baramulla, Indian-administered Kashmir, March 2026 [Sajad Hameed\/Al Jazeera]<\/p>\n

The degree to which countries in the region depend on the Strait of Hormuz varies, but all rely heavily on the trade in fertilisers that this shipping route facilitates.<\/p>\n

In India, the agriculture sector is worth $400bn, according to Indian government and World Bank data, and supports the livelihoods of more than half the population, either directly or indirectly. More than 100 million farming families are directly dependent on the sector.<\/p>\n

The country imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements and other key raw materials, particularly phosphates and potash, as well as natural gas used to manufacture fertiliser, with about 30\u201335 percent of these supplies moving through or originating from routes that pass via the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

In Pakistan, the agriculture sector contributes close to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Pakistan government estimates, and employs millions. About 20-25 percent of Pakistan\u2019s fertiliser imports, particularly DAP (diammonium phosphate), pass through the Strait of Hormuz at some point in transit. Additionally, the sector relies on domestic natural gas for the production of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertiliser and, with Gulf natural gas supplies held up in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of natural gas everywhere \u2013 even at home \u2013 is on the rise.<\/p>\n

In Bangladesh, where millions of smallholder farmers rely heavily on imported fertilisers, the agricultural sector accounts for about 12-13 percent of GDP, according to government data. The country\u2019s farming industry relies heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crops, meaning farmers are highly exposed to international supply shocks and price swings.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, roughly 25-30 percent of Bangladesh\u2019s imported fertiliser is shipped via routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Nepal, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP, imports nearly all of its fertiliser needs, with about 25-30 percent of arriving via India, via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

\"SAA worker handles granular fertiliser at a storage facility in Punjab, northern India, March 2026 [Sajad Hameed\/Al Jazeera]Livelihoods at stake<\/p>\n

Overall, even minor disruption in the Gulf \u2013 let alone the complete closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz \u2013 can have dire consequences for hundreds of millions of people.<\/p>\n

The Indian government has sought to reassure farmers that supplies remain secure \u2013 for now.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament on March 23: \u201cAdequate arrangements have been made for fertiliser supply for the summer sowing season\u2026The government has diversified options for oil, gas and fertiliser imports\u2026 Domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilisers] has been expanded\u2026 Farmers now have access to Made in India Nano Urea and are encouraged to adopt natural farming\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cUnder the PM Kusum scheme, more than 22 lakh (2.2 million) solar pumps have been provided, reducing dependence on diesel\u2026 I am confident that through joint efforts, India will manage these challenges effectively and continue to support our farmers.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the ground, however, confidence is low. Farmers say uncertainty is already influencing decisions.<\/p>\n

In Pampore, in the south of Indian-administered Kashmir, 53-year-old mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool says price signals travel faster than supply disruptions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe hear about war, about shipping problems,\u201d he tells Al Jazeera. \u201cEven before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rasool says farmers often respond early by cutting down on the amount of fertiliser they are using, even before actual shortages emerge.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we use less, production will fall,\u201d he says. \u201cBut sometimes we have no choice.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Pakistan\u2019s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad, 45, is preparing for the next sowing cycle.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf fertiliser becomes expensive, it will affect everyone here,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Government officials have expressed confidence in Pakistan\u2019s fertiliser supply amid the Middle East conflict, and claim the government is fully prepared to ensure adequate supplies during the region\u2019s peak sowing period, which typically begins between April and June, depending on the crop.<\/p>\n

According to a statement by Pakistan\u2019s federal secretary for agriculture to Al Jazeera, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain told a meeting on March 25 that the government has started proactive monitoring, is expanding domestic urea and DAP production and taking steps to ensure fertilisers reach farmers at affordable prices.<\/p>\n

However, urea production requires supplies of natural gas, meaning global energy price shocks can still translate into rising production costs.<\/p>\n

\"SAA farm worker spreads fertiliser across a field as part of routine crop management during the growing season in north India [Sajad Hameed\/Al Jazeera]For farmers, even small increases matter<\/p>\n

\u201cWe already have loans and expenses,\u201d Ahmad says. \u201cIf costs go up, we feel it immediately.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Rangpur, northwestern Bangladesh, farmer Mohammad Ibrahim, 41, says fertiliser supplies are already becoming unpredictable.<\/p>\n

\u201cSometimes it is available, sometimes not,\u201d he says. \u201cAnd when it comes, the price is higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in Nepal\u2019s Gulmi district, farmer Meghnath Aryal, 38, worries that crops will be reduced if a major supply problem does appear.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers,\u201d he says. \u201cIf it becomes expensive, we reduce use.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bangladesh\u2019s Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad told Al Jazeera the government is \u201cclosely monitoring the situation\u201d and officials have tried to reassure farmers that fertiliser supplies are sufficient for the coming months.<\/p>\n

The government has finalised plans to import about 500,000 tonnes of urea in the near term, while also exploring alternative suppliers such as China and Morocco to secure additional supplies in the longer term.<\/p>\n

There is no immediate shortage at present, the Agriculture Ministry says.<\/p>\n

Ram Krishna Shrestha, joint secretary at Nepal\u2019s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, told Al Jazeera that fertiliser distribution within the country remains largely stable for now, with supplies already secured for the upcoming rainy season, particularly for paddy crops such as rice.<\/p>\n

However, he warned that there may be delays to contracted shipments as a result of the Middle East crisis.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have managed fertilisers for the upcoming season, but there could be challenges in timely supply because of the current situation,\u201d he said, pointing to global price increases and logistical disruptions, including those caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Shrestha added that as companies report shortages and rising prices in international markets, the government has asked suppliers to expedite deliveries.<\/p>\n

\u201cAuthorities are also advising farmers to increase the use of traditional nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, compost, green manuring and azolla [a natural fertiliser] to offset any potential shortfall in chemical fertilisers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

No immediate new fertiliser subsidies have been announced, he said, though adjustments remain under discussion as the situation evolves.<\/p>\n

\"SAMustard farmer Ghulam Rasool scatters fertiliser by hand in a field in Pampore, Kashmir, India [Sajad Hameed\/Al Jazeera]Rising food prices on the horizon<\/p>\n

The implications extend beyond individual farmers.<\/p>\n

Across South Asia, fertiliser use has been central to maintaining crop yields \u2013 and keeping large populations fed. Any reduction in availability or increase in costs can quickly lower production. That, in turn, pushes up food prices, a sensitive issue in a region where households spend a large proportion of their income on food.<\/p>\n

For governments, the challenge is complex.<\/p>\n

In the past, subsidies have kept fertilisers affordable for farmers, but this becomes a fragile balancing act if global prices rise, placing additional pressure on public finances.<\/p>\n

In India, Ramesh Kumar is already making adjustments \u2013 but he is walking a tightrope.<\/p>\n

He has decided to use less fertiliser this season, even though he knows it could reduce yields.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a risk,\u201d he says. \u201cBut what choice do we have?\u201d<\/p>\n

Lower production will mean less income and harder decisions at home.<\/p>\n

\u201cSchool fees have to be paid,\u201d he says. \u201cHousehold expenses cannot stop.\u201d He looks across his field.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd the wedding\u2026 we will see.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ultimately, sacrifices will have to be made in his household.<\/p>\n

Across borders, the same uncertainty is unfolding.<\/p>\n

In Pakistan, Ahmad is worried about rising costs. In Bangladesh, Ibrahim is mostly concerned about the availability of fertiliser and, in Nepal, Aryal fears delays in supply.<\/p>\n

For Ramesh Kumar, the stakes are clear.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor others, this is about war,\u201d he says. \u201cFor us, it is about whether we can take care of our family.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gurdaspur, Punjab, India \u2013 Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year. Standing…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":560026,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[2342,3995,18819,28,4868,1127,101,3378,2344,13130,3,16236,12796,231941],"class_list":{"0":"post-560025","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-agriculture","9":"tag-asia","10":"tag-bangladesh","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-business-and-economy","13":"tag-conflict","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-features","16":"tag-india","17":"tag-nepal","18":"tag-news","19":"tag-pakistan","20":"tag-shipping","21":"tag-us-israel-war-on-iran"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=560025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/560026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=560025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=560025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=560025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}