{"id":565102,"date":"2026-04-05T00:48:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T00:48:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/565102\/"},"modified":"2026-04-05T00:48:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T00:48:08","slug":"the-strategic-defeat-of-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/565102\/","title":{"rendered":"The Strategic Defeat of the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"

To understand the strategic disaster that is unfolding in the Persian Gulf, let\u2019s take a gander at the last two columns of one of the war\u2019s initial optimists<\/a>: New York Times columnist Bret Stephens. <\/p>\n

A few weeks ago Stephens argued that the war was going better than the conventional wisdom suggested<\/a>. Comparing this war with previous U.S. military interventions abroad, Stephens argued that the initial losses from Operation Epic Fury were rather light:<\/p>\n

To hear the critics\u2019 version of events, an unprovoked and unnecessary attack on Iran, launched at Israel\u2019s behest, is already a foreign-policy fiasco that has put the global economy at risk without any clear objective or endgame. As Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, told NBC\u2019s Kristen Welker<\/a> over the weekend, \u201cWe\u2019ve never seen this level of incompetence in war-making in this country\u2019s history.\u201d<\/p>\n

Really? Let\u2019s take a tour of some of the recent history\u2026.<\/p>\n

[Paragraphs recounting the initial material costs of U.S. interventions in the Middle East, including protecting tankers in the late 1980s and the previous two Gulf wars \u2014 all of which were undeniably higher than the current operation.]<\/p>\n

If past generations could see how well this war has gone compared with the ones they were compelled to fight at a frightening cost, they would marvel at their posterity\u2019s comparative good fortune. They would marvel, too, at our inability to appreciate the advantages we now possess. <\/p>\n

Last week, however, Stephens was sounding a slightly different tune<\/a>: <\/p>\n

Getting some of [the war\u2019s] opponents to see the point may be the intent behind Trump\u2019s reported musing to his aides that he may be willing to end the war without using force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The president \u201cdecided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran\u2019s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade,\u201d The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday<\/a>. \u201cIf that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait.\u201d<\/p>\n

Maybe Trump is bluffing, to get more international support to open the strait. Or maybe (more likely) he\u2019s flying by the seat of his pants. Either way, ending the war before retaking the strait would be a mistake for many reasons, even if it allowed the administration to wind down military operations in the next week or two.<\/p>\n

Tehran would see it as victory and vindication, emboldening an otherwise fractured regime<\/a> and making it less, not more, pliable in subsequent negotiations. The Saudis, Emiratis and other Gulf states would feel betrayed by a deal that forced them to bend the diplomatic knee to the Iranians after having been assaulted by them. The Europeans lack the means, the will and the nerve to challenge Iran if diplomacy failed \u2014 as it almost surely would. And the United States, despite being a net exporter of energy, would still feel the economic hit in a world in which the price of oil is essentially set globally.<\/p>\n

When you\u2019ve lost Bret Stephens\u2026.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, Stephens wrote this before Trump\u2019s prime-time, low-energy address<\/a> to the nation this past Thursday. Contra Stephens\u2019 hopes, Trump reiterated the point that European and Asian allies should take the initiative in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, using language that sounded awfully rape-y: <\/p>\n

We\u2019ve beaten and completely decimated Iran. They are decimated both militarily and economically and in every other way. And the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Straight must take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it. They could do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.<\/p>\n

So to those countries that can\u2019t get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran \u2014 we had to do it ourselves \u2014 I have a suggestion. No. 1, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much. And No. 2, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us as we asked. Go to the straight and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done, so it should be easy.<\/p>\n

And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It\u2019ll just open up naturally.<\/p>\n

The NYT\u2019s Helene Cooper aptly summarized that speech as, \u201ca rehash of his Truth Social posts over the past month<\/a>.\u201d The market reaction to it was, how to put it, not good<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The hard-working staff here at Drezner\u2019s World could go on and on and on and on about how ineptly this war was planned<\/a> and how unpopular it is<\/a> with the American people and how neither Trump nor his principals comprehend<\/a> how any of this works.<\/p>\n

But what really needs to be stressed at this point \u2014 a point that experts have been making <\/a>since the first weeks of the war<\/a> \u2014 is just how much of a strategic fiasco this has been and will be. <\/p>\n

The <\/a>New York Times<\/a>\u2019 Edward Wong<\/a> recently looked at how the United States was doing in achieving Trump\u2019s five articulated goals from February 28th: <\/p>\n

Destroy Iran\u2019s missile-industrial complex. \u201cThe U.S. and Israeli militaries have destroyed many of Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles and launchers in airstrikes. But a large number are undamaged, and Iran continues to fire missiles<\/a> in the region.\u201d A follow-on NYT report<\/a> says that U.S. intelligence has concluded, \u201cIranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack.\u201d So clearly, this goal has not been achieved yet. <\/p>\n

Destroy Iran\u2019s navy. \u201cThe two militaries have destroyed much of Iran\u2019s navy.\u201d Let\u2019s stipulate this one, although it hasn\u2019t stopped Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. But this goal, narrowly defined, has been achieved. <\/p>\n

Sever Iran from its terror proxies: \u201cMr. Trump was referring here to militias in the region that receive financial support and other types of backing from Iran. The militias are still active.\u201d Indeed, particularly the Houthis<\/a>. This goal has not been achieved yet.<\/p>\n

Ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. \u201cU.S. officials say they think some highly enriched uranium remains in tunnels buried under rubble. Sending ground troops into Iran to seize the material would be risky.\u201d Sure, Trump no longer cares about the uranium<\/a>, but this counts as a goal that has not been achieved yet. <\/p>\n

Create the conditions for regime change. \u201cThe newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the deceased cleric, is a hard-liner aligned with a powerful arm of the Iranian military. The current government remains theocratic, authoritarian and anti-American, and continues to wage a war of resistance.\u201d Beyond the fact that the Trump administration doesn\u2019t understand the concept of “regime change,\u201d <\/a>this goal has not been achieved yet. <\/p>\n

Look, call me crazy, but a military campaign against an adversary that has failed to achieve four out of five objectives does not seem like a successful operation. <\/p>\n

If anything, however, this understates the depths of Trump\u2019s strategic clusterfuck. Despite a lot of chatter about negotiations possibly taking place, the administration has eliminated any chance at a coercive bargaining strategy working, as the <\/a>New York Times<\/a>\u2019 Wong and Julian Barnes reported earlier this week<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Multiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the U.S.-Israeli war, according to U.S. officials.<\/p>\n

The assessments say the Iranian government believes it is in a strong position in the war and does not have to accede to America\u2019s diplomatic demands, the officials said. And while Iran is willing to keep channels open, they said, it does not trust the United States and does not think President Trump is serious about negotiations\u2026.<\/p>\n

The intelligence assessments, which appear in multiple reports, have been consistent since the beginning of the conflict, one official said.<\/p>\n

Senior Iranian officials continue to resist making the kinds of concessions on its nuclear program and ballistic missile production that the Trump administration has demanded\u2026.<\/p>\n

Iranian officials think they are fighting for the government\u2019s very survival, given the strength of the American and Israeli attack, according to current and former officials. Some Iranian officials are skeptical that any peace deal would be lasting. Their leadership fears Israel could carry out a new attack months later even if Iran were to enter into a deal, U.S. officials said.<\/p>\n

So where does this leave the Trump administration? Nowhere good. Trump can try to sell the idea that the current difficulties are just a short-term hitch and a prolonged war is worth fighting, but he\u2019s poorly positioned to sell that narrative<\/a>. Plus, the longer this fight drags out, the more he alienates NATO allies<\/a>, including the United Kingdom<\/a>. And as much as he doesn\u2019t like it, such estrangement carries strategic costs. <\/p>\n

Time<\/a>\u2019s Eric Cortellessa<\/a> reports that \u201c[Trump] is searching for a way to declare victory, halt the fighting, and hope that economic conditions stabilize before the political damage hardens.\u201d Trump certainly wants to try that gambit \u2014 but this strategy isn\u2019t likely to work <\/a>either. Multiple<\/a> reports <\/a>that suggest Iran thinks it is winning the conflict. Even if Trump declares victory, Iran will continue to exert a chokehold <\/a>over the Strait of Hormuz, pocketing a lot of resources<\/a> to rebuild itself. <\/p>\n

At best, Trump seems to have locked the United States into a regional version of Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s \u201cmowing the grass<\/a>\u201d strategy with Hamas: periodically launching attacks whenever the antagonist builds up its capacities. But as the Financial Times<\/a>\u2019 Neri Zibler<\/a> reports, this is not working out quite as Netanyahu had hoped: <\/p>\n

After Hamas\u2019s October 7 2023 attack, Benjamin Netanyahu vowed \u201ctotal victory\u201d in the conflict that followed. Yet more than two years later Israel\u2019s enemies \u2014 while unquestionably weakened \u2014 are still standing. <\/p>\n

Hamas and its gunmen still rule over the ruins of half of Gaza. Hizbollah, which Netanyahu said was \u201ccrushed\u201d in 2024, fires a steady stream of rockets from Lebanon on northern Israel. And less than a year after he declared a \u201chistoric victory\u201d against Iran, Israel and the US are back at war with the Islamic republic. <\/p>\n

Rather than promise decisive triumph, the prime minister now speaks of the long arc of history, rising and falling threats, and changing the region\u2019s \u201cbalance of power\u201d \u2014 all as he prepares Israelis for a future in which dangers are constant and conflict open-ended\u2026.<\/p>\n

For many Israeli analysts and former officials, Netanyahu\u2019s inability or unwillingness to turn the IDF\u2019s operational achievements into a strategic victory or an enduring diplomatic resolution is his ultimate failure. <\/p>\n

\u201cUsing the word \u2018doctrine\u2019 to describe this is incredibly generous,\u201d said a second former Israeli official. \u201cWherever there\u2019s a problem he sends the military in, and there\u2019s no doubt that more damage was done to our enemies than us, but that\u2019s not the goal.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cThe view by the region is that while Israel is clearly strong, it can\u2019t be trusted to be a positive and stabilising player\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009none of that diplomatic work is happening,\u201d the former official said.<\/p>\n

Why yes, this sounds rather familiar. <\/p>\n

The longer this war drags on, the greater the costs for the United States. Absent a full-scale ground invasion, Iran can hold out. But Trump can\u2019t simply declare victory and tap out either. Which means he is stuck trying to sell a strategic defeat as a tactical victory. But inconvenient fact<\/a>s mean that not even Republicans are buying<\/a> that pitch. <\/p>\n

Trump has lost this war. The only question now is how bigly he loses it. <\/p>\n

Thanks for reading Drezner\u2019s World! This post is public so feel free to share it.<\/p>\n

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