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President Donald Trump has\u00a0threatened<\/a>\u00a0to attack Iranian\u00a0desalination plants, while repeating earlier warnings that the United States might bomb Iran\u2019s energy and electricity infrastructure. If the United States or Israel follow through on these attacks, it will harm\u00a0Iran\u2019s critical infrastructure and civilian population, while doing little to harm the\u00a0Islamic Republic\u2019s\u00a0military capabilities. There are few good options in the war being waged by the United States and Israel against Iran, and striking Iranian\u00a0energy and water-related infrastructure is not one of them.\u00a0<\/p>\n Striking Iran\u2019s electricity infrastructure would have little impact on its military capabilities <\/p>\n While Iran\u2019s civilian population would face grave dangers if the electricity grid\u2014and thus water infrastructure\u2014and refineries are destroyed, the ruling regime\u2019s military would face few direct setbacks. Outside of some grid-connected manufacturing facilities\u2014which can be targeted independently, without destroying the entire power system\u2014the Iranian military has only limited ties with the national electricity system. Instead, like\u00a0most militaries<\/a>,\u00a0the Iranian military primarily uses middle distillates, especially diesel and jet fuel (but\u00a0Iran effectively no longer has an air force<\/a>, and so has curtailed jet fuel consumption). Not only can diesel be stored for months, but the military accounts for a small fraction of Iran\u2019s total consumption of this product.\u00a0<\/p>\n The US experience in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in 2008 serves as a rough point of reference. This period saw ultra-high military tempos and depressed civilian demand due to high oil prices and, later, the Great Recession. Still, total US distillate demand\u2014which is largely composed of diesel\u2014was overwhelmingly in the civilian sector: Military distillate annual demand in 2008 of\u00a067,000 barrels per day<\/a>\u00a0reached just 1.7 percent of\u00a0total US distillate demand<\/a>. Iran\u2019s total diesel consumption in 2024 stood at\u00a0684,000 barrels per day<\/a>. Iranian forces will almost certainly continue to have ample access to diesel for military operations and will be able to fight on.<\/p>\n Attacks on the energy-water carries high risk<\/p>\n The 92 million individuals who live in Iran rely on electricity for life-sustaining services, including cooling, hospital operations, and more. Furthermore, electricity is critical for\u00a0powering Iran\u2019s groundwater wells<\/a>\u00a0that provide sanitation services, along with water for food and drinking. Accordingly, striking Iran\u2019s water-related infrastructure will immediately spark a crisis of disease, hunger, and thirst among Iran\u2019s civilian population. Children and infants will be most at risk. During the 1991 Gulf War, blackouts and resulting\u00a0water outages in Iraq led to epidemics of typhoid, cholera, gastroenteritis, and malaria, while some\u00a0estimates<\/a>\u00a0hold that 100,000 Iraqi individuals died due to health consequences from the war. Child mortality\u00a0more than tripled<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Leaving aside the moral and potential legal consequences of airstrikes against Iranian water infrastructure in the absence of a proportionate threat, these attacks would be counterproductive to US war aims. Destroying Iran\u2019s water infrastructure would severely damage goodwill toward the United States. Many Iranians\u2014including those who bravely protested against the regime\u2014might regard the United States as a threat instead of an ally to their cause.\u00a0<\/p>\n The United States might also stand to lose support from Gulf allies. The region, not only Iran, is vulnerable to the\u00a0water-electricity nexus<\/a>. Desalination plants require large amounts of energy, including natural gas and oil; Saudi Arabia uses around\u00a0300,000 barrels<\/a> of oil per day for desalination. Because the process is energy intensive, around\u00a0three quarters<\/a>\u00a0of GCC desalination plants are integrated into national electrical grids\u2014meaning water and electricity are produced simultaneously. Just as striking Iranian natural gas production or even refineries would\u00a0destabilize the country\u2019s water supply<\/a>, any attacks against regional states\u2019 electricity assets could also trigger a water crisis.\u00a0With just\u00a0fifty-six plants<\/a>\u00a0responsible for more than 90 percent of the Gulf\u2019s desalinated water, Iranian strikes could plausibly cause severe pain across the region.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n In the immediate term, if multiple or large-to-mega-sized desalination plant processes were significantly disrupted, impacts would be felt within\u00a0forty-eight to seventy-two hours<\/a>. Emergency response and resiliency capabilities\u00a0vary<\/a>\u00a0among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, with water storage reserves possibly lasting\u00a0sixteen to forty-five days<\/a>\u00a0in the United Arab Emirates; Saudi Arabia\u2019s water reserves are far less developed, and vary across the country\u2014lasting from a\u00a0few days to two weeks<\/a>. Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain all\u00a0possess<\/a>\u00a0less than a week of water.\u00a0<\/p>\n Assuming Iran quickly engages in tit-for-tat retaliation against regional states after an attack on its own electricity and water infrastructure, the Middle East could see millions of people facing life-threatening dangers related to severe shortages of potable water and electricity.<\/p>\n Though the GCC states would be most acutely affected, Israel and Iraq will also suffer if their\u00a0energy\u00a0or water infrastructure were damaged. Iran already\u00a0targeted<\/a>\u00a0Dimona and Arad, cities close to Israeli nuclear assets, reportedly injuring hundreds of civilians. If its desalination infrastructure is hit, Israel could risk losing\u00a080 percent<\/a>\u00a0of its drinking water. Attacks on Iran may indirectly jeopardize Iraq: Iran supplies its neighbor with\u00a0about a third<\/a>\u00a0of its natural gas and power needs.\u00a0In southern Iraq\u2019s Basra governorate, electricity powers upwards of\u00a072 percent<\/a>\u00a0of water treatment infrastructure, so outages could trigger a water crisis.\u00a0<\/p>\n Destroying energy and water resources <\/p>\n Striking Iranian electricity, water, and energy infrastructure will not achieve the military campaign\u2019s stated goal of degrading the Iranian military, which would face only minor disruptions. However, it would greatly\u00a0harm Iranian civilians. It would also plunge the region into an unprecedented crisis of water shortages, while the world would see the gravest global energy crisis in living memory. Instead of ending the war, destroying Iran\u2019s civilian energy and water infrastructure would likely only serve to prolong and escalate the conflict.\u00a0<\/p>\n Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Global Energy Center and the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative; he also edits the independent China-Russia Report.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ginger Matchett is an assistant director with the GeoStrategy Initiative in the Atlantic Council\u2019s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.\u00a0<\/p>\n This article reflects their own personal opinions.\u00a0<\/p>\n \n\t\tabout the authors\n\t<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\tstay connected\n\t<\/p>\n Sign up for PowerPlay, the Atlantic Council\u2019s bimonthly newsletter keeping you up to date on all facets of the energy transition<\/p>\n \n\t\trelated work\n\t<\/p>\n \n\t\tour work\n\t<\/p>\n
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