Today\u2019s notice: What to think about as Trump\u2019s latest Iran deadline approaches. First look at new Maine primary numbers. The changing world of the congressional appropriator. An update from the Bureau of Prisons. DHS\u2019s new plan to squeeze Democratic cities. And: An update on our investigation into corporate donations and presidential libraries. <\/p>\n
THE LATEST<\/p>\n
Danger zone: By this time tomorrow, the world will know if Donald Trump\u2019s latest deadline gambit with the Iranian regime worked \u2014 or led him to order American forces to openly attack civilian infrastructure.<\/p>\n
There are a lot of unknowns here, but analysts broadly agree that Iran is unlikely to back down under pressure. They think Tehran will instead try to inflict economic and political pain in response to the threat of bombing, NOTUS\u2019 Joe Gould, Anna Kramer and Hamed Ahmadi report<\/a>.<\/p>\n In other words, today is probably not the beginning of the end of this war. At his press conference yesterday, Trump said \u201cI can\u2019t tell<\/a>\u201d when asked whether the war was heating up or winding down. But if the president orders strikes of the magnitude he\u2019s been discussing, there\u2019s little doubt among experts that things will heat up.<\/p>\n \u201cThe military answer is they can\u2019t hurt us very much,\u201d Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said. But there is more to this fight than military force. \u201cPolitically, individual losses get portrayed as a military stalemate, and so they have much more effect than they do from a military perspective,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s proposed strikes would disrupt global energy markets, potentially for years, by destroying Iranian oil infrastructure and inspiring retaliatory strikes on similar sites across the region. Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said that if struck, Iran would likely empower its proxies, including Yemen\u2019s Houthis, to create economic chaos.<\/p>\n \u201cThat increases the danger and the contagion to the global economy pretty substantially, because you start having to price in much longer-term disruptions,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Public polling continues to find<\/a> that many Americans have not been convinced this war is a good idea, despite weeks of effort by the White House. A new, escalated phase of the conflict carries political risk in an environment like that.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s all speculation. This war started seemingly on a whim, and Trump has repeatedly and publicly reserved the right to end it that way, too.<\/p>\n Open tabs: Republicans Unveil a $342 Million Battle Plan to Keep the Senate<\/a> (NYT); Second staffer says Rep. Tony Gonzales sent her sexually explicit text messages<\/a> (NBC); Democratic Party faces its internal demons on US-Israel policy \u2014 again<\/a> (Semafor); AP says it will offer buyouts as part of pivot away from newspaper-focused history<\/a> (AP)<\/p>\n From the campaign trail<\/p>\n First on NOTUS: A look at the Senate primary in Maine after its negative turn. A new poll from an arm of the Graham Platner-backing Maine People\u2019s Alliance suggests that the early results of Gov. Janet Mills\u2019 scorched-earth messaging shift may not be what the Democratic establishment was hoping for.<\/p>\n Platner leads Mills 61% to 28% among likely voters in the survey<\/a>, which was conducted in the days after the Mills campaign launched an ad campaign<\/a> highlighting Platner\u2019s past social media posts. He also does much better in a hypothetical matchup against incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins \u2014 beating her 48% to 39%, while Collins leads Mills 45% to 42%.<\/p>\n From the Hill<\/p>\n The end of appropriations as we know it? There\u2019s growing concern among Hill institutionalists that using reconciliation to force an end to the DHS funding fight will open up a real can of worms. The fear, NOTUS\u2019 Al Weaver reports<\/a>: Whenever one party holds full control of government, the all-powerful Appropriations committees will be sidelined.<\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t have a choice,\u201d Senate Republican appropriator John Hoeven said yesterday of the reconciliation plan, blaming Democrats for the ongoing DHS partial shutdown. But is he worried about the precedent? \u201cMe, as an appropriator? Yeah,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n From the DOJ<\/p>\n Backward steps at the Bureau of Prisons: Since the landmark First Step Act was signed in Trump\u2019s first term, more federal inmates are supposed to be moved out and into reentry programs like halfway houses near the end of their sentences. The idea was supported by fiscal hawks, who liked the potential savings, and criminal-justice reformers, who say it reduces recidivism. But years later, neither group is actually getting what it wanted, NOTUS\u2019 Tyler Spence reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n An investigation by the GAO found that federal prison officials are unable to properly track time earned by inmates toward serving portions of their sentences in home confinement or halfway houses, and they don\u2019t know how many individuals currently in prison could legally have already been moved. The lack of urgency has cost taxpayers millions of dollars in penalty payments to reentry program providers, and some inmates are delayed so long that they miss the opportunity to take advantage of these programs at all.<\/p>\n What comes next: The bureaucratic failings at the BOP have drawn the ire of Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, a First Step co-sponsor. He said there could be \u201cthousands of people still in prison who shouldn\u2019t be there\u201d and he wants answers.<\/p>\n The BOP says staffing issues have been the problem and are being addressed. The bureau \u201chas made significant progress in improving the accuracy and timeliness of time credit calculations,\u201d a spox told Tyler.<\/p>\n From K Street<\/p>\n NOTUS follow-up: Fidelity and Liberty Mutual have quietly disclosed<\/a> thousands in donations to the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum between 2022 and 2025 after NOTUS\u2019 Dave Levinthal asked about them<\/a>.<\/p>\n NEW ON NOTUS<\/p>\n Squeezing sanctuary cities: Trump\u2019s newly minted DHS secretary, Markwayne Mullin, said yesterday on Fox News that he was taking \u201ca hard look\u201d at pulling customs officers from airports in so-called sanctuary cities, a move that would effectively cancel international flights to most of the country\u2019s largest hubs.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to focus on cities that want to work with us,\u201d he told host Bret Baier<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019re going to have to start prioritizing things at some point.\u201d<\/p>\n More: Some Republicans Want to Reverse the GOP Cuts to Rural and Tribal Radio Stations<\/a>, by Em Luetkemeyer<\/p>\n NOT US<\/p>\n Thank you for reading! If you liked this edition of the NOTUS newsletter, please forward it to a friend. If this newsletter was shared with you, please subscribe<\/a> \u2014 it\u2019s free! Have a tip? Email us at tips@notus.org<\/a>. And as always, we\u2019d love to hear your thoughts at newsletters@notus.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s notice: What to think about as Trump\u2019s latest Iran deadline approaches. 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