\n Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different
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\n Tue, Apr 7 2026, 4:39 PM
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Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different<\/p>\n
April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump’s terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump’s threats, it would all but preclude a quick\u00a0end to the war and especially the market-related fallout. heading into the close, Pakistan floated an option for a 2-week ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded favorably to notion with stocks and bond both rallying and oil prices falling to session lows. Given the absolute and severe nature of the alternative, it would be a surprise if tomorrow didn’t involve a larger than normal move in one direction or the other.<\/p>\n
ADP Employment Change Weekly<\/p>\n
26K vs — f’cast, 10K prev<\/p>\n
Core CapEx (Feb)<\/p>\n
0.6% vs 0.4% f’cast, 0% prev<\/p>\n
Durable goods (Feb)<\/p>\n
-1.4% vs -0.5% f’cast, 0% prev<\/p>\n
09:03 AM<\/p>\n
Flat overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.331<\/p>\n
09:41 AM<\/p>\n
Down an eighth of a point in MBS and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.356<\/p>\n
11:30 AM<\/p>\n
Near weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.364<\/p>\n
03:07 PM<\/p>\n
Decent recovery. MBS down only an eighth and 10yr down almost half a bp at 4.336<\/p>\n
04:34 PM<\/p>\n
well into the green now on ceasefire optimism. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.305<\/p>\n