United States President Donald Trump\u2019s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this November.<\/p>\n
In analyst Nate Silver\u2019s aggregate<\/a> of US national polls, Trump\u2019s net approval has dropped 4.1 points since March 5 to -16.9, with 56.5% disapproving and 39.5% approving.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s net approval is at a record low, below his previous lows of -15.0 in November 2025 and February. It\u2019s also below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump during his first term the closest at -12.8.<\/p>\n On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump\u2019s net approval is -10.7 on immigration, -21.8 on the economy, -24.2 on trade and -33.6 on inflation. The Iran war has caused a slump for Trump recently on the economy, trade and inflation but not immigration.<\/p>\n Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war<\/a>. Net support had fallen to a low of -18.1 on April 4, but has recovered to -15.1 now, with 53.8% opposed to the Iran war while 38.7% support it.<\/p>\n The polls will not have caught up to the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran on Wednesday AEST. But the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index<\/a> was up 2.5% in last night\u2019s trading session. Since a low on March 30, the S&P has surged 6.9% and is now only 2.3% below its peak in the week before the Iran war began.<\/p>\n Trump is likely to recover some ground on the stock market surge, particularly if fuel prices fall back. I believe as long as nothing goes badly wrong with the US stock market or the overall US economy, Trump will not become very unpopular.<\/p>\n Democrats have big swing in Georgia<\/p>\n A special election runoff occurred Wednesday AEST in Georgia\u2019s 14th federal seat, and I covered this for The Poll Bludger<\/a>. <\/p>\n At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, a Republican and a Democrat had qualified. At the 2024 presidential election, Trump had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 37 points in Georgia 14.<\/p>\n While the Republican won by 55.9\u201344.1, this 12-point Republican margin was a 25-point drop from Trump\u2019s 2024 margin. I also covered a Wisconsin Supreme Court election which the left-wing judge won by 20 points. Wisconsin voted for Trump by 0.9 points in 2024.<\/p>\n This Poll Bludger post covered the results of recent European elections and the upcoming Hungarian election on Sunday and three Canadian byelections on Monday.<\/p>\n Midterm elections in November<\/p>\n At November midterm elections, all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. In Silver\u2019s aggregate of the generic ballot polls<\/a>, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 47.9\u201342.4, a 5.5-point margin. There has been very little change since January.<\/p>\n If Democrats win the House popular vote by this margin in November, they are very likely to gain control of the House. At 2024 elections<\/a>, Republicans won the House by 220\u2013215 and the Senate by 53\u201347.<\/p>\n There will be 35 seats up for election in the Senate<\/a> in November (33 regular and two special elections). Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13, but only two Republican seats are thought vulnerable: Maine and North Carolina.<\/p>\n At the 2024 presidential election<\/a>, Harris won Maine by 6.9 points and Trump only won North Carolina by 2.2 points. Trump won all other states Republicans are defending by at least a double-digit margin. Even if Democrats win nationally by 5.5 points, they would gain only two seats on a uniform swing and Republicans would hold the Senate by 51\u201349.<\/p>\n It\u2019s become increasingly difficult for Democrats to win the Senate, as the two senators per state rule skews Senate elections towards low-population, rural states.<\/p>\n US unemployment rate is low due to people leaving workforce<\/p>\n The March US unemployment rate<\/a> was 4.3%, down 0.1% from February. Trump\u2019s first full month in office was February 2025, when the unemployment rate was 4.2%. By this measure, there has hardly been any change in the US jobs situation.<\/p>\n