Samuel Boivin | Nurphoto | Getty Images<\/p>\n
The White House last month warned staff in an email not to make prediction markets<\/a> bets related to the Iran war<\/a>, a Trump administration <\/a>official confirmed Friday.<\/p>\n The warning came amid increasing concern about insider trading on prediction markets such as Polymarket<\/a> after a series of suspiciously timed trades around the Iran war, and on the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a> earlier this year.<\/p>\n The Wall Street Journal first reported<\/a> on the March 24 email to White House staff.<\/p>\n That email was sent a day after President Donald Trump<\/a> announced a pause in hostilities in a post on the social media site Truth Social<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the 15 or so minutes before that post, there was a flurry of unusual activity on oil<\/a> and stock futures markets<\/a>. More than $500 million in crude oil futures trades were made in that narrow time window,\u00a0Reuters has reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n Two Democratic senators, in a letter Friday to the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said that the same pattern appears to have recurred on Tuesday, “in the hours before President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran \u2013 an announcement that sent oil prices down approximately 15 percent.”<\/p>\n On that day, “traders placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling,” wrote Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, in a letter asking CFTC Chair Michael Selig to open an investigation of the unusual trading.<\/p>\n “This pattern raises serious questions about whether there has been recurring misappropriation of material nonpublic government information and about the extent to which individuals inside or outside the government have acted on such information,” Warren and Whitehouse wrote.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, Rep. Ritchie Torres<\/a>, a New York Democrat, sent a separate letter<\/a> to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair\u00a0Paul Atkins<\/a>\u00a0and Selig requesting a federal insider trading probe.<\/p>\n “What kind of trader would make a massive trade at 6:49 a.m., 15 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement with billions of dollars at stake and without a hedge?” Torres asked in an interview with CNBC on <\/a>Wednesday. <\/p>\n “The only plausible answer to that question is an insider trader,” Torres said. “Any other alternative is a statistical impossibility.”<\/p>\n Read more U.S.-Iran war newsVance expects U.S. negotiations with Iran on war will be ‘positive’<\/a>White House warned staff against making Iran war bets on prediction markets<\/a>Trump says Iran ‘better stop’ if it’s charging oil tankers to transit Hormuz strait<\/a>Hormuz strait oil traffic way down after ceasefire; Hassett says even one tanker is big<\/a>Iran war has been an enormous financial windfall for Russia: former IEA oil head<\/a>NATO’s Rutte told allies Trump wants Hormuz commitments within days, diplomats say<\/a>Britain to call for toll-free Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon to be part of ceasefire<\/a>Rep. Ritchie Torres calls for probe into trades ahead of March pause in Iran strike<\/a>Trump Iran ceasefire updates: Strait of Hormuz toll confusion remains<\/a>U.S. has violated ceasefire agreement, Iran parliamentary speaker says<\/a>Trump threatens tariffs of 50% on nations supplying weapons to Iran<\/a>Spanish PM says fire starters don’t deserve applause as he welcomes Iran ceasefire<\/a>Trump, Iran agree to two-week ceasefire, plan to open Strait of Hormuz<\/a>Trump faces calls for removal over threats to wipe out ‘whole civilization’ in Iran<\/a>Pakistan seeks 2-week pause after Trump warns ‘whole civilization will die’ if no deal<\/a>U.S.-Iran war ‘tax’ begins to hit American businesses and consumers<\/a>India makes first Iranian oil purchase in seven years<\/a>U.S. fighter jet shot down in Iran, one crew member rescued: MS NOW<\/a>Defense startups eye Iran war windfall as U.S., Gulf states turn to tech<\/a>Trump threatens to destroy Iranian infrastructure<\/a>Trump speech paints grim picture for oil \u2014 over 600M barrels at risk<\/a>Army chief of staff fired by Hegseth, sources say<\/a>Iran and Oman drafting protocol to ‘monitor’ Hormuz Strait traffic: IRNA<\/a>Iran demands guaranteed ceasefire to end war permanently: Reuters<\/a>Analysis: Trump’s Iran speech ignores the risks of a return to the 1970s<\/a>Iran’s war propaganda homes in on Trump with Lego memes<\/a>Trump Iran speech: War is nearly over, vows ‘extremely hard’ hits coming<\/a>Trump says Iran wants ceasefire, U.S. wants Hormuz Strait open first<\/a>More from CNBC Politics<\/a> <\/p>\n The White House, asked for comment about the Journal’s report, did not deny that staff were sent the warning on making prediction market bets on Iran, but noted that all federal employees are barred from trading or placing bets on inside information.<\/p>\n “Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in an email to CNBC on Friday.<\/p>\n “President Trump has been crystal clear: while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,” Ingle said.<\/p>\n The surge in popularity of prediction markets, including Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket, has been accompanied by growing questions about proper regulation and the potential for insider trading. <\/p>\n Kalshi and Polymarket both announced they were tightening rules around insider trading<\/a> on their platforms in separate statements released on the same day in March.<\/p>\n