The long-term fallout of the war in Iran is only beginning to take shape, but this much is clear: The conflict has left the Middle East unsettled, alliances strained and the world facing uncertain shifts in the balance of economic and military power.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s theocracy is tattered but alive, with new economic leverage. The U.S. and Israel will hold elections this year, their leaders potentially facing voters having fallen short of their war aims. The NATO alliance, already strained, is under even more pressure. The Gulf Arab states face an emboldened Iran in their backyard.<\/p>\n
At this inflection point, as the U.S. and Iran prepare for talks this weekend in Pakistan, AP journalists in the Middle East and Washington share their assessments on how the war is still reverberating across the world during the tenuous ceasefire:<\/p>\n
Israel <\/p>\n
If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to be graded for the war, he would get an \u201cincomplete.\u201d<\/p>\n
Netanyahu set some ambitious goals at the outset of the fighting on Feb. 28, saying he wanted to remove the threats posed by Iran\u2019s missile and nuclear programs and its support for hostile proxy groups. He also vowed to create the conditions for a popular uprising against the Iranian government. None of these goals were fully achieved.<\/p>\n
In a televised address after the ceasefire, Netanyahu acknowledged \u201cwe still have goals to complete.\u201d But he nonetheless claimed \u201cimmense achievements.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIran is weaker than ever, and Israel is stronger than ever. This is the bottom line of this campaign,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
With elections looming later this year, the question for Netanyahu is whether the Israeli public agrees with his assessment.<\/p>\n
Israelis overwhelmingly supported the war against archenemy Iran, especially in the early days of the campaign. But as the war dragged on, Israelis also grew tired as nonstop air-raid sirens disrupted daily life and sent people scrambling into bomb shelters around the clock.<\/p>\n
Netanyahu is now hoping that in the coming ceasefire talks the U.S. will shore up the battlefield gains into a permanent agreement that guards Israel\u2019s interests. He also must ensure that his relationship with President Donald Trump remains strong after an inconclusive war that was deeply unpopular in the U.S.<\/p>\n
Otherwise, Netanyahu could find himself struggling for his job when his war-weary nation heads to the polls.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Josef Federman, deputy news director for the Middle East<\/p>\n
Depleted Iran finds leverage<\/p>\n
Iran, battered by nationwide protests in January and heavy airstrikes in the war, suddenly finds itself in a position of power.<\/p>\n
Just the threat of sea mines and possible attacks from Iran\u2019s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has ships staying away from the Strait of Hormuz, in effect keeping the waterway crucial for international energy shipments closed.<\/p>\n
Even hard-liners have spun the killing of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into the idea of replacing him with a younger, more hard-line version of himself in his son, Mojtaba.<\/p>\n
The government has put forward its own maximalist demands ahead of the Islamabad talks \u2014 including continuing to enrich uranium<\/a> in its nuclear program, one of the chief reasons Trump gave for going to war.<\/p>\n Yet Iran\u2019s military sites now sit in ruins, its missile arsenal broadly depleted, and the threat of more protests<\/a> by its people still looms in the future. That unrest could be spurred on by the sheer level of destruction in Iran\u2019s oil and gas industry, as well as attacks targeting steel mills and other economic sites.<\/p>\n \u2014 Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran<\/p>\n Gulf Arab states in the middle<\/p>\n After insisting and pleading with Iran to leave them out of the conflict, the Gulf Arab states still found themselves targeted by Iran, which rained down drone and missile fire on airports, energy sites, military bases and civilian targets across the region.<\/p>\n Many had to close refineries or declare themselves unable to meet their promised oil output due to the war. Even with a ceasefire in place, Iran\u2019s new control of the Strait of Hormuz through threats alone means Gulf states still aren\u2019t able to get their energy shipments out to market.<\/p>\n They aren\u2019t a monolith though, with opinions ranging from Oman\u2019s efforts at diplomacy to the United Arab Emirates denouncing Iranian aggression and insisting the status quo cannot stand. <\/p>\n \u2014 Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran<\/p>\n Ceasefire uncertainty in Lebanon<\/p>\n In Lebanon, the regional war has taken a devastating toll and the prospect of a ceasefire now leaves more questions than answers.<\/p>\n The U.S. and Israel are at odds with Iran over whether or not their ceasefire extends to the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not. <\/p>\n In the meantime, Lebanese and Israeli officials have agreed to enter into direct negotiations, which Lebanon hopes will lead to a ceasefire and Israel hopes will lead to disarmament of Hezbollah. Netanyahu said the negotiations would also include talks about a potential peace agreement between the two countries, which do not have diplomatic relations. <\/p>\n While the talks represent a significant step, reaching an agreement will not be easy. Lebanon wants a halt to Israeli strikes before the talks start, a condition that Israel is unlikely to agree to.<\/p>\n In practice, most analysts say Lebanon does not have the capacity to disarm Hezbollah by force or to enforce any ceasefire agreement that Hezbollah does not agree to.<\/p>\n For now, the Israel-Hezbollah war that has displaced more than a million people and killed nearly 1,900 continues.<\/p>\n \u2014 Abby Sewell, news director for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq<\/p>\n Strained NATO relations pushed to the brink<\/p>\n Trump has repeatedly tested the 32-member alliance.<\/p>\n He cut off direct U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, threatened to take the Arctic territory of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, and cajoled members to spend more on defense.<\/p>\n Now, his differences with NATO allies over Iran are raising new questions about whether the alliance, created as a curative to post World War II instability, can survive.<\/p>\n Since launching the war, Trump has derided allies as \u201ccowards,\u201d slammed NATO as \u201ca paper tiger\u201d and compared U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Neville Chamberlain, the former premier known for a policy of appeasement toward Nazi Germany.<\/p>\n Trump is angry at member countries ignoring his call to help as Iran effectively shut the the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, and at alliance members Spain and France restricting the use of their airspace or joint military facilities by U.S. forces supporting the operations in Iran. <\/p>\n Trump says the moment is \u201ca mark on NATO that will never disappear.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2014 Aamer Madhani, White House reporter, Washington<\/p>\n The United States faces economic woes<\/p>\n Trump won back the White House promising to curb inflation, bring down prices many Americans saw as too high and trigger a jobs boom. The war in Iran has done exactly the opposite, raising gas prices, leaving stock markets reeling and sending shockwaves through the rest of the economy as the labor market weakens<\/a> and inflation begins rising anew<\/a>.<\/p>\n With November\u2019s midterms<\/a> looming, none of that is good for Republicans trying to keep control<\/a> of Congress. Trump initially tried to calm economic fears by visiting swing states<\/a>. But he first scoffed at affordability worries as a hoax, then stopped those trips altogether as the war consumed his administration.<\/p>\n Making a ceasefire stick might eventually stabilize oil prices and financial markets, but reversing economic pain around the globe may take far longer, potentially affecting voters closer to Election Day.<\/p>\n Polling also shows that most Americans believe U.S. military action in Iran went too far<\/a>. And the war has even caused a rift within Trump\u2019s once seemingly unflappable MAGA base<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2014 Will Weissert, White House reporter, Washington<\/p>\n Energy prices and markets<\/p>\n The conflict has largely shut down the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil travels, and has damaged oil and gas production facilities across the Middle East. <\/p>\n In response, oil prices have shot higher all over the world. Brent crude oil, the international standard, has gone from roughly $70 per barrel before the war in late February to more than $119 at times. Brent rose 0.7% to $96.58 Friday.<\/p>\n Prices at the pump have jumped as well, reaching about $4.15 a gallon in the U.S., up from just under $3 before the conflict began. Higher gas costs can sap Americans\u2019 ability to spend on other goods and services, slowing the economy and threatening to worsen unemployment.<\/p>\n