{"id":583777,"date":"2026-04-14T14:31:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T14:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/583777\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T14:31:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T14:31:08","slug":"college-football-playoff-odds-show-sec-losing-its-grip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/583777\/","title":{"rendered":"College Football Playoff odds show SEC losing its grip"},"content":{"rendered":"

The jury\u2019s out how the SEC\u2019s move from eight to nine league games this season will play out, but there\u2019s enough growing evidence to suggest it is backfiring.<\/p>\n

Among SEC teams, only Georgia and Texas have better than 50-50 odds to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field, according to odds released by the FanDuel Sportsbook.<\/p>\n

LSU coach Lane Kiffin — whose new program has the third-best odds among SEC teams — shared a scathing take on the fallout from the league\u2019s move to a nine-game conference schedule. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u201cThat was not a good idea until the system of how they selected teams was fixed, until it was fixed that there were automatic bids, until it was truly fixed that a strength of schedule matters how it should, much more like basketball does,\u201d Kiffin said last week.<\/p>\n

\u201cUntil that\u2019s fixed, it made zero sense to me to go add another hard game, put teams on the road five times in this conference, which, top to bottom, is the hardest conference to play in and the hardest stadiums, but we did.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Big Ten team has won the College Football Playoff three straight seasons, with Indiana winning the most recent championship game.<\/p>\n

The SEC had five teams make the playoff, but each fell by the wayside before reaching the title game, and opening odds for the 2026 CFP field of 12 suggests it\u2019s unlikely the trend changes.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame \u2014 an independent granted a playoff provision stating it need only finish in the top 12 of the CFP rankings to be guaranteed a spot in the field \u2014 is the strongest favorite to make the CFP at -700, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook.<\/a><\/p>\n

There are three Big Ten teams with better than 50-50 odds to make the playoff field \u2014 Indiana (-330), Oregon (-270) and Ohio State (-240) \u2014 while only two SEC teams are favored.<\/p>\n

Georgia, the two time defending SEC champion, has the best odds in the league (-220), while Texas is favored to make the CFP field at -180.<\/p>\n

Kirby Smart likes what he has seen from the Bulldogs this spring with the annual G-Day Game approaching Saturday.<\/p>\n

But Smart\u2019s words from the start of last season suggest UGA\u2019s 2026 schedule will be no less daunting than last year\u2019s<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s really tough, highly ranked teams, physical teams (and) it\u2019s just going to continue to be a grind,\u201d he said last fall. \u201c\u2026. It\u2019s going to be scary, because you just don\u2019t have enough. Nobody has enough depth.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s exactly what played a large part of UGA\u2019s 39-34 CFP Sugar Bowl quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss on Jan. 1, as the Bulldogs saw pivotal breakdowns at positions where players were injured (center, Drew Bobo) or missing (end, Gabe Hall, safety JaCorey Thomas), and less experienced players failed to measure up.<\/p>\n

Kiffin said he believes adding another league game will make it harder for SEC teams to get in and will add to more attrition before teams make their postseason run.<\/p>\n

\u2018You just got some more losses in your conference and beat yourself up more,\u201d he said. \u201cYou\u2019re going to continue to have this, in my opinion, this threshold until they go to more teams or a different system that 10-2 is in and 9-3 is out. So you just got some more losses in your conference and beat yourself up more. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe have eight of the top-10 hardest schedules in the country. You made it harder. You don\u2019t get more points when you\u2019re already the first hardest schedule.\u201d<\/p>\n

The depth of competition in the SEC is unparalleled, per ESPN\u2019s preseason SP+ ratings.<\/p>\n

Kentucky, at No. 53 in those ESPN rankings, has the lowest ranking among the SEC teams, while five of the Big Ten\u2019s teams are ranked lower – No. 55 Maryland, No 61 Wisconsin, No. 67 Michigan State and No. 82 Purdue<\/p>\n

Defending national champion Indiana plays two of the five-lowest ranked Big Ten teams and opens with a nonconference schedule that includes home games with North Texas (ranked 109th), FCS Howard and Western Kentucky (ranked 86th).<\/a><\/p>\n

South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, who coached one of three SEC teams that missed the 2024-25 field with a 9-3 record, recently noted the imbalance of the schedules from one conference to another during an SEC Network appearance. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest thing for us, and I mean the SEC, is the playoff committee going forward valuing strength of schedule for who has the opportunity to get into the playoff,\u201d Beamer said on The Paul Finebaum Show.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I\u2019m not mistaken, that\u2019s three straight national champions that haven\u2019t played a Power 4 nonconference (opponent),\u201d he said. \u201cIndiana won it, they were a helluva team, and we have great teams in this league, too. And we have to make sure we\u2019re worried about ourselves and what we need to do as a conference to put our best teams forward to give us the most number of teams to get into the playoffs.<\/p>\n

\u201c(But) 10-2 you\u2019re in, and 9-3 you\u2019re out, and we had a 10-2 team (Vanderbilt) that didn\u2019t get in, which is tough to see.\u201d<\/p>\n

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, when announcing the move to a nine-game schedule last fall, claimed it would help the league in the CFP.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis format protects rivalries, increases competitive balance, and \u2014 paired with our requirement to play an additional power opponent \u2014 ensures SEC teams are well prepared to compete and succeed in the College Football Playoff,\u201d Sankey said. <\/p>\n

The CFP revealed it added an enhanced schedule strength metric for the selection committee to use last season, and five SEC teams made the field.<\/p>\n

But to Kiffin\u2019s point, four of those five teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia) had key players out or playing hurt.<\/p>\n

The recent hand-wringing over the SEC\u2019s move to a nine-game schedule has triggered more talk of the league\u2019s coaches supporting CFP field expansion from 12 to 16 or 24 games after this season.<\/p>\n

The recent chatter on the nine-game schedule likely indicates the topic of CFP expansion will come up at the SEC spring meetings in Miramar Beach, Florida, May 26-28.<\/p>\n

The Big Ten is on record as supporting a 24-team playoff, while the SEC, ACC and Big 12 are on board with a 16-team playoff.<\/p>\n

The SEC and Big Ten, which hold joint control over the future of the playoff field, were unable to agree on a format, so to CFP field stayed at 12 this year.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a look at FanDuel\u2019s opening odds for top teams to make the CFP 12-team field this season:<\/p>\n

Notre Dame: -700 (Means a bettor would have to bet $700 to win $100)Texas Tech: -370Indiana: -330Miami: -280Oregon: -270Ohio State: -240Georgia: -220Texas: -180LSU: +115Texas A&M: +130Alabama: +160Ole Miss: +175Oklahoma: +260Michigan: +270USC: +290Penn State: +310Tennessee: +330Florida: +370BYU: +420SMU: +430Utah: +500Washington: +550Missouri: +550Louisville: +550Auburn: +650Clemson: +750Iowa: +800South Carolina: +850<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The jury\u2019s out how the SEC\u2019s move from eight to nine league games this season will play out,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":583778,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[1607,2662,399,398,396,397,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-583777","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-college-football","9":"tag-college-sports","10":"tag-football","11":"tag-ncaa","12":"tag-ncaa-football","13":"tag-ncaafootball","14":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/583777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=583777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/583777\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/583778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=583777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=583777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=583777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}