{"id":585400,"date":"2026-04-15T09:17:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/585400\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T09:17:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:17:09","slug":"economists-at-imf-issue-stark-warning-that-iran-war-could-tip-world-toward-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/585400\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists at IMF issue stark warning that Iran war could tip world toward recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n The International Monetary Fund has modestly reduced its forecast for global economic growth this year due to the Iran war but warned of more severe potential impacts of the conflict, the latest global economic body<\/a> to do so.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,\u201d Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor at the IMF, wrote in the fund\u2019s latest World Economic Outlook report, published Tuesday.\n <\/p>\n

\n The conflict could still cause a global \u201cenergy crisis on an unprecedented scale,\u201d he added.\n <\/p>\n

\n The IMF now expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January forecast. This modest revision assumes that the war will be \u201crelatively short-lived,\u201d it said. Global inflation is also seen rising to 4.4% this year.\n <\/p>\n

\n However, the fund also outlined two scenarios for a longer-lasting conflict. Under the more severe of these \u2014 in which oil and natural gas prices spike 100-200% relative to January and stay at that level into 2027 \u2014 global economic growth would come in at only 2% this year.\n <\/p>\n

\n That would amount to \u201ca close call for a global recession,\u201d defined as economic growth below 2%, which has happened only four times since 1980, the IMF said.\n <\/p>\n

\n Before the war, the global economy was performing better than expected, with growth on track to be revised upward this year, it noted. In one positive development, the downward revision was partly offset by reduced US tariff rates compared with last year, the IMF said.\n <\/p>\n

\n The IMF prediction is the latest from a growing cohort of economists and organizations, including the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations, warning of the economic toll of a lengthy war in Iran.\n <\/p>\n

\n Those warnings lay out the increasingly stark consequences of a war the US and Israel embarked on, including among friendly or allied nations who now face the prospect of economic chaos.\n <\/p>\n

\n Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, stopping about one-fifth of the world\u2019s crude oil supply, as well as supplies of other commodities like natural gas, helium and fertilizer. Some countries are starting to run low on fuel supplies, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and prices for goods made with petroleum products are starting to climb.\n <\/p>\n

\n On Wednesday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the US-Israeli war with Iran had launched the global economy into a \u201creally dangerous time.\u201d Speaking to reporters, Chalmers pointed to the IMF forecast as evidence of the serious economic impact.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe IMF is sounding the alarm on some pretty severe scenarios,\u201d Chalmers said. \u201cThis is a very serious, very dangerous time for the world. Now, Australia is better placed and better prepared than a number of other countries, but we won\u2019t be spared the fallout from this very substantial economic shock.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Chalmers was on his way to Washington for a G20 meeting of finance ministers this week, as well as meetings with the IMF and World Bank, during which he said he would join other officials in calling for an end to the war.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cFrom an economic point of view, the end of the war can\u2019t come soon enough, but even when the strait is properly reopened and even when the hostilities formally end in an enduring way we still expect the consequences of this war in the Middle East to be felt for some time now,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n

\n CNN\u2019s Olesya Dmitracova contributed reporting.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The International Monetary Fund has modestly reduced its forecast for global economic growth this year due to the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":585401,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":{"0":"post-585400","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585400","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=585400"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585400\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/585401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=585400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=585400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=585400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}