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<\/p>\nWelcome to the first regular-season installment of the Giants Mailbagg.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s 90 percent of the season to play and some of you have already decided that you hate this team. It\u2019s true, they haven\u2019t given you a lot to love. It\u2019s also fair to say that we haven\u2019t seen the best from this group. This much is beyond doubt: This team will require patience, because there aren\u2019t any potential roster changes that could make a meaningful impact on a lineup that simply needs its core players to start doing more damage at the plate.<\/p>\n
Granular, game-level changes? Sure, it\u2019s not too early to make adjustments there. It only took getting swept in a season-opening series by the New York Yankees for manager Tony Vitello to make Willy Adames a regular leadoff hitter for the first time in his big league career. Twice on the Giants\u2019 current road trip to Baltimore and Cincinnati, we\u2019ve seen Vitello choose a right-on-right matchup by sending up Daniel Susac to pinch hit for switch-hitting catcher Patrick Bailey.<\/p>\n
There are only so many tweaks to be made. Last year\u2019s lineup either hit home runs or scuffled for weeks at a time, dragging down the season (and leading to the dismissal of manager Bob Melvin). If we\u2019ve learned anything in six-plus series, it\u2019s that a manager, regardless of background or temperament, can only do so much when the everyday players aren\u2019t hitting.<\/p>\n
On to your questions.<\/p>\n
Yessss, oh hell yesss! My question is: Does it get any better than this? \u2014 David R.<\/p>\n
Hello David. The last thing I want to do is dampen your enthusiasm. It\u2019s in short supply these days. However, after reviewing nearly all the other submitted questions, I get the strong sense that the answer is \u2026 yes! It certainly could get better than this. Let\u2019s continue\u2026<\/p>\n
Give it to me straight doc, how bad is it? \u2014 Nathan B.<\/p>\n
Well, my editor, Steve Berman, wrote this summary in the call for Mailbagg questions:<\/p>\n
The San Francisco Giants haven\u2019t made a great first impression in the early stages of manager Tony Vitello\u2019s debut season. They\u2019ve hit fewer homers and stolen fewer bases than any team in Major League Baseball. The bullpen came into Monday ranking 22nd in ERA and FIP. The defense is 23rd in Outs Above Average. The rotation is a bright spot of sorts, despite a slow start from Logan Webb, with the fourth-most innings per start and fifth-best FIP. But that hasn\u2019t been enough to prevent the Giants from having the worst run differential (minus-21) in the National League.<\/p>\n
So \u2026 pretty bad. The good news is it\u2019s early and there\u2019s 90 percent of the season to play. The bad news is that if the Giants keep playing like this, then the good news will stop being good news and we\u2019ll all be punching the clock till September.<\/p>\n
Can\u2019t you just use the same questions from last year? \u2014 The Garlic Fry<\/p>\n
If the Giants are at or below .500 in mid-August, perhaps I\u2019ll have to!<\/p>\n
Actually, I have to thank you, The Garlic Fry, for your sarcasm because it provides a good opportunity to take inventory. One of the most instructive parts of these Mailbaggs for me is getting a sense of the topics and issues that are on readers\u2019 minds. Yes, you\u2019re a self-selected group and not always representative of the larger fan base. But if you\u2019ve taken the time to engage here, then that means you spend a decent amount of bandwidth thinking about Giants baseball, and so, in addition to appreciating your readership, that makes you a valuable resource to me. Based on the questions you\u2019ve submitted, your primary concerns appear to be the lineup, the roster construction, what can be done to put the paddles to the offense, the lineup, and when Bryce Eldridge will return to the big leagues.<\/p>\n
There were a few questions about the bullpen and about Patrick Bailey\u2019s value in the ABS era (and whether he still generates enough value, given his continued lack of offensive production, to warrant playing him ahead of Daniel Susac). Mostly, though, y\u2019all want to know about the lack of hitting.<\/p>\n
And interestingly, there were almost no questions about Tony Vitello. I know a lot of you feel that we\u2019ve been writing too much about the manager. That\u2019s fair. The manager should not be the story every day. In some respects, a manager should be thought of in the same way that we think about umpires. If you\u2019re noticing them, or if they become the story of the day, that\u2019s generally not a good thing.<\/p>\n
A manager\u2019s importance is also usually overstated. They\u2019re only as successful as the roster they are given. Plenty of talented teams have won despite a manager who\u2019s not much of a value addition, and plenty of flawed teams have lost with a manager who is otherwise at the top of the field.<\/p>\n
The most important people in the ballpark on a given day are 1) the players, 2) the fans and 3) everyone else. (OK, maybe the beat reporters are in a fourth category.)<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve all devoted a lot of words to Vitello because of how unprecedented his hiring was and how unpredictable this transition will be. That\u2019s probably not going to change over the course of the year. Just know that I hear the complaints and I don\u2019t disagree with them. The manager almost never defines a season. The players do.<\/p>\n
April is when I look for trends without jumping to conclusions. This April has been \u2026 really odd. The eye test is coming up at a C or C-, at best, mostly due to sloppy play and flailing at the plate. It\u2019s clear that they are pressing really hard, but they aren\u2019t getting out of the funk. So, odds on when Buster (Posey) and Zack (Minasian) make a big move? (My guess: DFAing someone like Encarnacion and bringing up someone like Eldridge.) \u2014 Sarah H<\/p>\n
How much more non-production from (Heliot) Ramos, (Harrison) Bader, (Jung Hoo) Lee and (Jerar) Encarnacion before changes\/call-ups\/trades are made? \u2014 Mark E.<\/p>\n
Appreciate the perspective when framing your question, Sarah. The best way to answer it might be to look at what the Giants did last season when Posey was in his first year as president of baseball operations. They waited until the first week of June to institute their first major shakeup, designating LaMonte Wade Jr. and backup catcher Sam Huff and signing Dom Smith.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n Harrison Bader has produced a .115\/.142\/.192 slash line through his first 15 games with the Giants.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not sure they wait till early June to make changes this season. Remember that they got off to a hot start last year in spite of Wade\u2019s struggles. They were 33-28 when they took him off the roster. They\u2019d also just lost for the sixth time in eight games. The whole point of firing Bob Melvin and replacing him with Vitello was a dissatisfaction with how long it took last year\u2019s team to correct course when the losing streaks began to pile up. So if the Giants keep losing series and the record sinks deeper below .500, I\u2019d expect the front office to be active in seeking to change the mix.<\/p>\n
Keep in mind, though, that players like Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee and Harrison Bader are everyday guys who aren\u2019t going anywhere. There\u2019s the Eldridge move to be made at some point. Other than that, though, the changes you\u2019re likely to see will be on the periphery of the roster.<\/p>\n
Are there any players on this roster who we can plausibly hope for a breakout from? As in, someone who could start producing better numbers than they ever have before? Right now it feels like almost everyone on the team has been worse than expected, so I\u2019m just looking for something to be hopeful about. \u2014 James E.<\/p>\n
Over the previous two seasons, the Giants have gotten mini breakouts from Luis Matos (for a week) and Tyler Fitzgerald (for two months), but neither was sustainable. I get it, though. Right now, you\u2019d settle for a flash in the pan if it can help the Giants score some more runs and win a series.<\/p>\n
If breakout performances were easy to predict, then they wouldn\u2019t be breakout performances. But I\u2019d focus on the pitching side. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if Landen Roupp became one of the better young starting pitchers in the league this season. As for the bullpen, I\u2019m not sure there\u2019s another fast riser like Ryan Walker in the minor leagues, but Blade Tidwell has all the arm talent to become a dominant reliever. The difference is that Walker was developed as a relief pitcher. There\u2019s no way to know how Tidwell will perform if asked to make 50-plus appearances. The same could be said for Keaton Winn and Caleb Kilian. The Giants have a lot of arm talent in the bullpen, but a lot of those arms will be used in totally uncharted ways. Temper your expectations accordingly.<\/p>\n
What is the vision for this team? I understand wanting to be like the Dodgers and maybe we are close to having a prospect printing system. But if the plan is young internal talent in the future to carry us, why bother with such a half-cooked roster? The lineup is probably better than this, fine. But the rotation? The bullpen? These have been known quantities. \u2014 Brandon D.<\/p>\n
The Giants had better not be half-cooked after they spent $182 million on Willy Adames, $150 million on Matt Chapman and more than $250 million while taking on the Rafael Devers deal. To my mind, Buster Posey\u2019s vision for this team has been to create more lineup and roster continuity. That\u2019s a great goal in theory. You want fans to feel like they can go to the ballpark and root for \u201ctheir guys.\u201d Except, well, when those guys score the fewest runs in the NL through the first three weeks of the season, then a lot of fans will be clamoring for changes. And that\u2019s not easy to do when you\u2019ve got a set lineup of position players who are pulling down a lot of money to play every day.<\/p>\n
If the Giants\u2019 core position players all have underwhelming seasons, then this team will be fortunate to finish at .500. Simple as that. Especially because the Giants are relying on that core to be productive enough to help them overcome some of their known deficiencies on the pitching side, which you alluded to.<\/p>\n
What happens if this ends up being another .500 season with no playoffs? I know we have a lot of time before worrying about that but it\u2019s hard not to feel that .500 center of gravity. \u2014 Chris A.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t blame you. It\u2019s been four years of same ol\u2019, same ol\u2019. As you noted, it\u2019s too early to think about the ramifications of another .500 season. I\u2019d have a hard time imagining that heads would roll, though. The Giants seem pretty committed to the current path. The improvement of the farm system is part of gauging their organizational progress, too.<\/p>\n
What if this season becomes an absolute disaster, the manager turns out to be a bad bet who\u2019s totally out of his depth, and the Giants lose 90-plus games? Well, I\u2019d have a hard time envisioning the board of directors firing Buster Posey. He\u2019d show himself the door first.<\/p>\n
I am concerned that contract and veteran status play far too big a role in lineup decisions: (Luis) Arraez at second, (Rafael) Devers at first even when that\u2019s not their best position on the team. (Casey) Schmitt DHing is ridiculous. Seems bad both for winning but also sends a general message that it\u2019s not a meritocracy. Thoughts? \u2014Aslater<\/p>\n
Over the first couple of series, while Devers was limited to DH, it was impossible prima facie to justify starting Arraez at second base and Schmitt at first base instead of vice versa. Except for this: the alternative would be not having Arraez on the roster at all. The Giants promised Arraez that he\u2019d be given the opportunity to prove he can play a full season at second base. That\u2019s what it took to sign him. That\u2019s also not the same thing as promising that he\u2019d be the everyday second baseman. If we\u2019re looking up a month from now and he\u2019s at minus-8 Outs Above Average, then even he\u2019d have to acknowledge that it isn\u2019t working out. (And as I type this on Tuesday, he just made a great play to snag a line drive.) For now, you give him a chance to sink or swim. That\u2019s what we\u2019re seeing with several aspects of this team right now, including Jung Hoo Lee continuing to start against left-handed pitchers, etc.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
\n Luis Arraez has played error-free defense at second base while producing three Outs Above Average. (Daniel Kucin Jr. \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n
I think it would send a worse message to the clubhouse if the Giants made a promise when signing a three-time batting champion and then renege on it after three weeks.<\/p>\n
Given that teams regularly give Jung Hoo Lee the third-base line, why is it still not an emphasis getting him to take advantage and lay down an occasional bunt? We saw Yaz and when Belt do it occasionally to keep defenses honest, and JHL\u2019s skill set should be more conducive to it (and frankly it\u2019s hard to imagine him being the player we want him to be if he can\u2019t manage that). On a related note, at what point does the contract\/Korean market become not enough to justify his place as an everyday player? We have a decent sample size of JHL vs. LHP and it\u2019s not pretty. \u2014 Bryan P.<\/p>\n
I agree with you. Based on his comments to the San Francisco Chronicle over the weekend, Lee would agree with you, too. He is just at the 55th percentile in sprint speed. He hasn\u2019t been the blazer we thought he\u2019d be. And he doesn\u2019t employ his speed well within the game. He\u2019s not aggressive on the bases. He doesn\u2019t steal. He doesn\u2019t try to bunt for hits. He\u2019s just not a very disruptive presence in the lineup.<\/p>\n
Nobody seems able to agree on how valuable contact skills are in today\u2019s game but I tend to believe that teams underrate a hitter like Arraez because of what he can do to create action. Arraez achieves this because he\u2019s got the shortest swing in the league (5.7 feet). He\u2019s truly unlike any other big-league hitter. That\u2019s not the case for Lee. His swing (7.6 feet) is actually longer than you might expect. Among the Giants\u2019 everyday players, only Willy Adames has a longer swing. I\u2019m not a hitting coach, but I\u2019d assume that Lee\u2019s swing length is why you see so many ground balls and fewer of those Arraez-like punched singles to the outfield.<\/p>\n
All of this to say: The jury\u2019s still out on Lee. In fairness, he\u2019s having a good road trip. He\u2019s been outstanding in right field. The Giants know how important he could be if he can develop some confidence and consistency at the plate. They\u2019re invested in him, both financially and in terms of plate appearances. If he continues to struggle against left-handed pitchers, though, I don\u2019t think the coaching staff should wait long to make a change. Sitting Lee against lefties also improves their bench, which otherwise does not have an answer for late-inning right-handed relievers.<\/p>\n
Stay tuned for Part 2 of the Mailbagg, coming tomorrow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome to the first regular-season installment of the Giants Mailbagg. There\u2019s 90 percent of the season to play…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":585830,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[363,2329,99],"class_list":["post-585829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-san-francisco-giants","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585829","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=585829"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585829\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/585830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=585829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=585829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=585829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}