{"id":587824,"date":"2026-04-16T13:57:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T13:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/587824\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T13:57:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T13:57:16","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-thursday-is-san-diegos-streak-about-to-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/587824\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Thursday: Is San Diego’s streak about to end?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 16, 2026, 08:21 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Thursday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Corey Seager<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+472)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.88 EV<\/p>\n

Wyatt Langford<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+537)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $39.89 EV<\/p>\n

Julio Rodriguez<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+205)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.49 EV<\/p>\n

Jackson Merrill<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+193)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.94 EV<\/p>\n

Nick Kurtz<\/a> | OVER 1.5 TB (+153)
Projection: 45% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.62 EV<\/p>\n

Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Walker Buehler<\/a> | OVER 2.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.43 EV<\/p>\n

Walker Buehler | UNDER 3.5 K (+106)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.22 EV<\/p>\n

Jacob Lopez<\/a> | OVER 2.5 ER (+112)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.44 EV<\/p>\n

Foster Griffin<\/a> | OVER 4.5 K (+103)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.27 EV<\/p>\n

Ryan Weiss<\/a> | OVER 3.5 K (-129)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.35 EV<\/p>\n

Patrick Corbin<\/a> | OVER 4.5 K (+128)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.40 EV<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Foster Griffin<\/p>\n

+139<\/p>\n

39.3<\/p>\n

-7.10<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-109<\/p>\n

-8.39<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O +100<\/p>\n

8.57<\/p>\n

-21.14<\/p>\n

Braxton Ashcraft<\/p>\n

-168<\/p>\n

60.8<\/p>\n

-2.48<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-119<\/p>\n

-3.90<\/p>\n

U -121<\/p>\n

10.63<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Landen Roupp<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

48.4<\/p>\n

1.64<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-145<\/p>\n

0.03<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

8.42<\/p>\n

-9.70<\/p>\n

Chase Burns<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

51.6<\/p>\n

-9.42<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+112<\/p>\n

-13.50<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

0.94<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kris Bubic<\/p>\n

-112<\/p>\n

58.3<\/p>\n

11.45<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+112<\/p>\n

11.64<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

9.13<\/p>\n

2.84<\/p>\n

Keider Montero<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

41.7<\/p>\n

-20.81<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-146<\/p>\n

-20.24<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-12.04<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Walbert Urena<\/p>\n

+224<\/p>\n

20.9<\/p>\n

-36.79<\/p>\n

+2.0<\/p>\n

-121<\/p>\n

-34.74<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

9.12<\/p>\n

-26.51<\/p>\n

Max Fried<\/p>\n

-280<\/p>\n

79.1<\/p>\n

9.24<\/p>\n

-2.0<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

23.78<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

17.05<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Patrick Corbin<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

46.6<\/p>\n

-4.55<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-146<\/p>\n

-3.67<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.41<\/p>\n

-15.45<\/p>\n

Brandon Sproat<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

53.4<\/p>\n

-4.56<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+112<\/p>\n

-9.20<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

6.19<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Steven Matz<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

52.6<\/p>\n

-6.65<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-106<\/p>\n

-10.02<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -119<\/p>\n

9.06<\/p>\n

-0.97<\/p>\n

Anthony Kay<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

47.4<\/p>\n

-1.64<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

-2.28<\/p>\n

U -101<\/p>\n

-8.08<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jack Leiter<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

57.2<\/p>\n

5.00<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

5.59<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -122<\/p>\n

10.51<\/p>\n

11.24<\/p>\n

Jacob Lopez<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

42.8<\/p>\n

-14.54<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-135<\/p>\n

-16.03<\/p>\n

U +101<\/p>\n

-21.87<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Shane Baz<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

39.8<\/p>\n

-19.26<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-149<\/p>\n

-18.45<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.39<\/p>\n

-7.17<\/p>\n

Parker Messick<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

60.2<\/p>\n

8.37<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+114<\/p>\n

9.57<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-1.95<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tomoyuki Sugano<\/p>\n

+159<\/p>\n

37.1<\/p>\n

-5.80<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

-7.85<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -120<\/p>\n

9.61<\/p>\n

-1.15<\/p>\n

Ryan Weiss<\/p>\n

-194<\/p>\n

62.9<\/p>\n

-3.57<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

-0.22<\/p>\n

U +100<\/p>\n

-7.84<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Luis Castillo<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

60.7<\/p>\n

11.35<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+105<\/p>\n

14.14<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

9.99<\/p>\n

16.52<\/p>\n

Walker Buehler<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

39.3<\/p>\n

-21.60<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

-23.09<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-25.97<\/p>\n

Top Betting Trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres<\/a> Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in seven straight games. (+8.30 Units \/ 98% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -137<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Toronto has gone under this bet in five consecutive road contests. (+5.20 Units \/ 75% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +120<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Reds<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Reds have hit the under for this bet in 12 of their last 15 home games. (+8.40 Units \/ 43% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +120<\/p>\n

Chicago White Sox<\/a> Team Total UNDER:
Chicago has failed to reach their team total in eight of their last 10 games. (+5.95 Units \/ 51% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -105<\/p>\n

Athletics<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The A’s have lost this bet in eight of their last 10 overall games. (+5.60 Units \/ 48% ROI). Current odds: -0.5 @ +114<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 16, 2026, 08:21 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":587825,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[363,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-587824","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-mlb","9":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=587824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587824\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/587825"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=587824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=587824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=587824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}