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<\/a><\/p>\nImagine going back in time six months and telling everyone who would listen that a team from Pennsylvania was guaranteed a spot in the second round. That\u2019s exactly where we stand and it\u2019s the Penguins who currently sit in the driver\u2019s seat with a 59 percent chance of advancing.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not undeserved, either. Pittsburgh\u2019s incredible forward depth, elevated by Dan Muse\u2019s system, has rewired the franchise back toward legitimate playoff caliber. The Penguins have a borderline-elite offense that gives them a decent edge over a Flyers team that enters the playoffs as one of the few that are below-average offensively.<\/p>\n
Philadelphia\u2019s defensive ability under Tocchet, though, should be up to the task. It\u2019s what makes things closer than some might expect, given what it took for the Flyers to get to this point.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s two opposing identities facing off.<\/p>\n
The numbers<\/p>\n
The Penguins and Flyers may have finished the year tied in standings points, but these two teams are separated by 19 goals in Net Rating.<\/p>\n Each side of this matchup has a clear, defined strength \u2014 for Pittsburgh, it\u2019s a plus-26 Offensive Rating, while the Flyers boast a plus-19 Defensive Rating.<\/p>\n Those strengths have only been emphasized since the Olympics, with the Penguins upping their scoring chance creation and scoring a league-high 3.42 goals per 60. Led by some all-time greats, this team has a deep approach with a lot of dimension, between its transition game and ability to extend zone time. And that\u2019s what ultimately gives the Penguins an edge in this series.<\/p>\n Philadelphia\u2019s offense has shown real signs of improvement down the stretch, but improved defense has been the key to this team\u2019s playoff push, and it\u2019s going to be put to the test in this series. Steady goaltending has added even more reinforcements.<\/p>\n It just hasn\u2019t translated to the penalty kill for the Flyers. Despite being one of the better short-handed expected goal suppressors, this team has one of the highest rates of goals against since the NHL returned to play.<\/p>\n The Penguins haven\u2019t been that much better in short-handed situations. But they still have the special teams advantage because their power play is actually effective, unlike the Flyers, who can\u2019t convert on their chances. Philadelphia\u2019s season-wide 5.66 goals per 60 on the advantage sit dead last, despite ranking in the top-10 in xG.<\/p>\n The big question<\/p>\n Can Pittsburgh\u2019s veterans deliver vintage playoff greatness?<\/p>\n We\u2019re getting Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in a playoff series against the Flyers (at least) one last time.<\/p>\n We need to mention this: A player\u2019s career numbers against a specific team are often statistical noise. Crosby\u2019s numbers against Philly, though, might be the exception. In 93 regular-season games against them, he\u2019s put up 60 goals and 79 assists. In three games this season, he has four goals, an assist and a 3.95 Game Score on Dec. 1, his second-highest of 2025-26.<\/p>\n The fact that Penguins-Flyers is a thing at all, in April 2026, is wild. The fact that Crosby and Malkin are still driving the bus for Pittsburgh is predictable, in a sense, because both \u2014 albeit to varying degrees \u2014 have remained productive, important players despite their age. Now, they have a chance to add another chapter to their postseason resumes. Not that they need it.<\/p>\n Both are Conn Smythe winners (Malkin in 2009, Crosby in 2016 and 2017). Malkin did his best postseason work in his Conn Smythe year, putting up 4.22 points per 60. Crosby\u2019s most productive runs were actually in 2018, when they lost to Washington in the Eastern Conference final (a ridiculous 2.22 goals and 5.17 points per 60), and 2022, when they lost to the Islanders in the first round (two goals, eight assists in six games). That series against the Isles, as recently as this summer, felt like it could\u2019ve been the last time we\u2019d see either player in the postseason.<\/p>\n It wasn\u2019t. Crosby has bounced back from his knee injury at the Milan Olympics, putting up positive Game Scores in nine of his last 10 games after some initial wobbliness and continuing, under Muse, to lean into his effectiveness on the forecheck\/cycle game. Malkin, in terms of Net Rating, is on a similar scale with Crosby; he\u2019s played almost entirely on the wing this season, a move that may well extend his career. Does that mean that both are primed to turn the clock back to, say, Pittsburgh\u2019s first-round win over Philadelphia in 2009? Maybe, maybe not \u2014 and if they dominate, it\u2019s likely to look at least a bit different. The fact that we\u2019re having the discussion, though, is a treat.<\/p>\n The outlook might be a little less rosy for Kris Letang, Pittsburgh\u2019s other geriatric, three-time champ. The 38-year-old had a genuinely hellish stretch post-Olympics, but since March 31, he has turned things around. Pittsburgh is winning his minutes, and he looks to have jelled with partner Samuel Girard. The Penguins don\u2019t have any other viable answers behind Erik Karlsson on the right side, so they\u2019ll need Letang to keep that up. In other words, if Pittsburgh has itself a nice playoff run, Crosby, Malkin and Letang will each almost certainly play a major role. Some things never change.<\/p>\n The X-factor<\/p>\n Can Porter Martone be Philadelphia\u2019s secret weapon?<\/p>\n Bless Porter Martone for one thing above all else: He gave us all an opportunity to reroute some of the Matvei Michkov discourse to another young, talented winger. Ten points in his first nine professional games, all primary points \u2014 not a bad introduction. That type of production is obviously impressive and welcomed for the Flyers, given their overall dearth of offense; before Martone joined the lineup, they were 26th in goals. Since, they\u2019re top-10. Add a top-six winger, and all of a sudden, your lineup makes a lot more sense.<\/p>\n The way Martone has gone about it should be noted, too. In those nine games, he shot the puck nearly 12.5 times per 60 minutes of play. Small sample size? Certainly. Still, that number is nearly three ahead of Owen Tippett and over four more than Michkov, and it puts Martone near the top of the list league-wide, behind only (gulp) Cutter Gauthier and Brady Tkachuk. Down-the-stretch games, even the ones Philadelphia played, aren\u2019t playoff hockey, but it\u2019s easy to imagine Martone making a difference against Pittsburgh. Wingers who combine his brand of physicality, productivity and play-driving are in short supply, and he certainly looks like he\u2019s cut from the Gauthier\/Tkachuk cloth.<\/p>\n The rosters<\/p>\n Outside the Big Three, the rest of the aging core in Pittsburgh has pulled its weight this year.<\/p>\n It starts with Erik Karlsson, who has turned back the clock with a fantastic season. The turnaround really started around New Year\u2019s. He averaged a Game Score of 0.75 to open the year, and since Jan. 1, has bumped that up to 1.75, the fifth-best mark among all defensemen.<\/p>\n Karlsson is still a scoring chance machine on the back end, whether he is driving to the slot himself or setting up his teammates. The vision is still a massive strength, but maybe the most impressive part is how that skill has translated in his own zone, from his entry defense to his low-risk retrievals and exits to get the Penguins out of danger. Add in the context of his situation and his matchup role with Parker Wotherspoon, and it makes his defensive game even more impressive.<\/p>\n Up front, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell are still mainstays in the Penguins\u2019 attack. While their respective scoring rates are pretty consistent relative to recent seasons past, the team is generating a lot more quality offense in their minutes this season. The one drawback is their play on the other end of the ice, which leaves the team without a true shutdown option in the top six.<\/p>\n Besides core performances, the other story in Pittsburgh this season is how well this team invested in reclamation projects, and Egor Chinakhov and Anthony Mantha are prime examples of that.<\/p>\n Chinakhov never put it together in Columbus; injuries derailed his progress, along with some less-than-favorable deployment. But he has carved out a top-six role in Pittsburgh. Sharing the ice with a dangerous passer such as Malkin has elevated his scoring, but so have some of his best traits, such as his speedy skating and a hard shot that he is more than willing to use.<\/p>\n Mantha has scored at a career-high rate of 3.07 points per 60 and showed an element of durability that has been missing over the past few seasons. Even Tommy Novak has shown some progress in his first full season with the Penguins; he is building on the puck-moving ability that helped him stand out in Nashville a few years ago.<\/p>\n Chinakhov, Mantha and Novak all take the pressure off Ben Kindel, who has been another bright spot this year on the third line. Add in some solid forecheckers in the bottom-six, such as Blake Lizotte and Justin Brazeau, and the Penguins have a surprisingly deep forward group to lean on.<\/p>\n Based on roster strength alone, the Flyers don\u2019t have the same offensive depth to match up to the Penguins. Martone has shown promise and there have been glimpses of Michkov\u2019s potential that instill a lot of confidence in the future and the overall rebuilding process.<\/p>\n Until those two officially take over, it\u2019s up to Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett and Trevor Zegras to lead the way.<\/p>\n Konency\u2019s production has been consistent over the years in Philadelphia, as a dual-threat who can chip in a little bit of everything. His play with Christian Dvorak has been clutch since the Olympic break. The two have benefited from timely saves and hot shooting to outscore expectations with an 11-4 edge in their five-on-five minutes together.<\/p>\n A move to the Flyers has agreed with Zegras, who is having one of his best seasons. Not only is his scoring on the rise after a couple of tough years in Anaheim, but his two-way game has also been a lot stronger. His crafty passing clicks with Tippett\u2019s shoot-first approach and gives this team a few scoring options.<\/p>\n If the Flyers had elite difference-makers at the top, it would take a lot of pressure off that trio of forwards, who are all better suited as second (and third) wave options.<\/p>\n Instead, Philadelphia has to hope its defensive chops can keep games low-event enough to stay in it.<\/p>\n Noah Cates continues to develop into a real shutdown threat. The return of Tyson Foerster adds a pesky defensive presence and forechecker into the mix. Sean Couturier\u2019s offense may have faded over the last few seasons, but he is still reliable in his own zone, too.<\/p>\n Those same strengths (and weaknesses) trickle onto the blue line.<\/p>\n Travis Sanheim\u2019s defensive game is franchise-worthy, but he doesn\u2019t have the offense to match up to other true No. 1s. Neither does any other Flyers defender.<\/p>\n It all comes down to how much this team can limit, unless they can keep defying the odds by scoring above the sum of their parts.<\/p>\n Rasmus Ristolainen should help with the former. He is set to make his playoff debut in his 13th NHL season and has been a strong fit alongside Sanheim on the top pair that matches up against the opponents\u2019 best. Cam York has also been solid in his own zone, alongside Jamie Drysdale, who is having a breakthrough year.<\/p>\n The key matchup<\/p>\n Stuart Skinner vs. Dan Vladar<\/p>\n This series also has an interesting goaltending narrative. Dan Vladar and Stuart Skinner are both following redemption arcs \u2014 Vladar missed out on a chance to succeed Jacob Markstrom as Calgary\u2019s starter, and Skinner, despite some sustained solid play, was too meltdown-prone for Edmonton to keep around for another postseason.<\/p>\n Each, to some degree, has spent his time in Pennsylvania figuring things out. Vladar has brought real stability to the Flyers\u2019 crease, putting up a .906 save percentage in a season when the league average is .896, saving more than 11.4 goals above expected and generally playing like Philadelphia\u2019s most valuable player.<\/p>\n Skinner hasn\u2019t been as good (.888 save percentage) or as crucial to his team\u2019s success. He has, though, saved about 5.4 goals above expected, despite throwing up negative outings in that stat in 12 of his 27 starts with Pittsburgh. Vladar, for perspective, has 18 such starts out of 52. He gives the Flyers an edge, at least on paper.<\/p>\n The bottom line<\/p>\n The Flyers have a defensive identity and a superior goaltender, and they showed flashes of improved offense down the stretch, but Pittsburgh\u2019s scoring depth (and the guy at the top of the lineup) make them the odds-on favorite in one of the first round\u2019s marquee matchups.<\/p>\n References<\/p>\n How these projections work<\/a> Resources<\/p>\n Evolving Hockey<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Understanding projection uncertainty\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n
Natural Stat Trick<\/a>
Hockey Reference<\/a>
NHL<\/a>
All Three Zones Tracking<\/a> by Corey Sznajder<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Before the season started, no one saw this coming. Maybe you thought the Pittsburgh Penguins would be too…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":587961,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,1789,1790,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-587960","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-nhl","9":"tag-philadelphia-flyers","10":"tag-pittsburgh-penguins","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=587960"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587960\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/587961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=587960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=587960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=587960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}