(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, fueling optimism that a deal to end their war is in reach after Tehran announced the Strait of Hormuz was open again.<\/p>\n
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In a Friday phone interview, Trump asserted that any moratorium on Iran\u2019s nuclear activities would not expire, saying it would be \u201cunlimited.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cMost of the main points are finalized. It\u2019ll go pretty quickly,\u201d Trump said. He also denied that the US would release any frozen funds to Iran \u2014 a key demand of the regime that he and his supporters have long decried.<\/p>\n
Details of any potential deal remained murky and Iran has yet to comment on Trump\u2019s claim, which is virtually certain to go against its longstanding insistence that it has the right to enrich uranium.<\/p>\n
At the same time, momentum built throughout the day toward an agreement. Leaders in Tehran said that Hormuz is open for commercial shipping after Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. At least eight oil tankers that had been stuck in the Persian Gulf raced toward the strait afterward in an apparent willingness to test the announcement.<\/p>\n
Returning to Washington from a Phoenix event late Friday night, Trump offered more optimism about the discussions, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that he had received some \u201cpretty good news\u201d that pertained to Iran, without sharing details. Trump said that negotiations would continue \u201cover the weekend.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI just think it\u2019s something that should happen. It\u2019s something that only makes sense to happen. And I think it will. We\u2019ll see what happens,\u201d he said. \u201cI think that is going to be very beneficial. And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the president also floated the threat of resuming strikes on Iran once the current ceasefire expires next week. \u201cMaybe I won\u2019t extend it, so you have a blockade, and unfortunately we have to start dropping bombs again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s comments and Tehran\u2019s declaration marked the latest signs that the two sides are working behind the scenes on a deal to bring an end to the war that began in late February when the US and Israel launched attacks across Iran.<\/p>\n
Those strikes prompted Iran to retaliate against US bases around the region and hit oil and gas infrastructure belonging to American allies in the Persian Gulf, setting off a global energy crisis.<\/p>\n
Oil, fuel and natural gas prices plunged on hopes that the latest developments would mean an end to the war and more energy supplies could transit safely through the strait. Brent crude traded 9% lower at around $90 a barrel by 2:09 PM New York time and wiped out most of the gains that came since the onset of the war. Diesel prices in the US and Europe were also lower.<\/p>\n
In a notable shift, real-world oil prices also eased significantly alongside headline futures prices. On Friday, Dated Brent, the world\u2019s most important physical price, fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 11.<\/p>\n
Stocks extended their rally on speculation the war would soon end.<\/p>\n
While markets responded positively, reaching a deal with Iran could be politically perilous for Trump. The contours of the pact resemble the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which imposed time limits on Iran\u2019s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.<\/p>\n
GLOBAL REACT: US-Iran Deal in Sight \u2014 Lasting Peace Still Remote<\/p>\n
Trump withdrew from the Obama-era agreement in 2018, calling it the \u201cworst deal ever.\u201d He said it amounted to a massive financial giveaway that didn\u2019t eliminate Iran\u2019s ability to build a nuclear weapon or limit its ballistic missiles and support for proxy groups.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf there is a deal with sanctions relief and cash transfers, that\u2019s a huge risk because the president campaigned against this kind of stuff,\u201d said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe question is not how does a deal undercut the president\u2019s rhetoric?\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s how does a deal potentially undercut the president\u2019s declared strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n
One proposal under discussion is for the US to release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Tehran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium, Axios reported, citing two US officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks whom it didn\u2019t identify.<\/p>\n
Trump pushed back on that idea in the phone interview, repeatedly saying \u201cno\u201d when asked if he would release the $20 billion. Some of his supporters, including Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have voiced concern about Trump entering into an arrangement that resembles the one former President Barack Obama agreed to.<\/p>\n
\u201cI have every confidence that President Trump will not allow Iran to be enriched by tens of billions of dollars for holding the world hostage and creating mayhem in the region,\u201d Graham posted Friday on X. \u201cNo JCPOAs on President Trump\u2019s watch.\u201d<\/p>\n
An earlier round of ceasefire talks in Islamabad, led by Vice President JD Vance, failed to produce a deal. Pakistani and US officials suggested another round was in the works. Asked if he would travel to Pakistan to sign an agreement, Trump said, \u201cI may.\u201d<\/p>\n
Many traders and analysts remain skeptical that meaningful crude flows can resume quickly. The US has said the blockade imposed earlier this week on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports remains in place. Iran\u2019s foreign ministry said it considers a blockade to be a violation of the ceasefire agreement with the US and pledged Tehran would take action if it persists.<\/p>\n
In the phone interview, Trump said the US-Iran discussions are a \u201ctotally separate deal\u201d from the Lebanon ceasefire. Still, Israel\u2019s military campaign in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, had been a major impediment to a broader deal. That ceasefire was holding on Friday.<\/p>\n
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s office on Friday said the military had \u201cnot yet finished the job\u201d against Hezbollah. The goal is to dismantle the group and \u201cthis will not be achieved tomorrow,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n
The Israeli military has occupied large parts of southern Lebanon during the campaign, which local authorities say has killed more than 2,000 people and displaced a million more.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to get along hopefully with everybody, and we\u2019re going to straighten out Lebanon,\u201d Trump said. \u201cWe\u2019re not going to be bombing the hell out of Lebanon, not going to let anybody do that.\u201d<\/p>\n
–With assistance from Justin Sink, Devika Krishna Kumar, Magdalena Del Valle, John Bowker, Meghashyam Mali, Michelle Jamrisko and Courtney Subramanian.<\/p>\n
(Updates to add Trump remarks in sixth through eighth paragraphs.)<\/p>\n
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