Even as they\u2019ve been massively outspent in a Democratic-leaning state, Republicans say they still have a fighting chance to defeat a redistricting referendum in Virginia next week that could help tip the balance of power in the House in this fall\u2019s midterm elections.<\/p>\n
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Republicans have been clear-eyed about the obstacles they face in urging voters to reject a redrawn congressional map that would pave the way for Democrats to pick up as many as four seats. They are coming off an election just five months ago in which Democrats swept every statewide office on the ballot and expanded their legislative majority.<\/p>\n
But while Democrats hold a 3-1 ad spending advantage heading into Tuesday\u2019s special election, that edge has shrunk significantly in recent weeks. And the latest public polling has shown support for the new map with a single-digit lead \u2014 much narrower than Democrats\u2019 recent victories in the state.<\/p>\n
Republicans have also called on House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., former Gov. Glenn Youngkin and members of Congress to help make the case on the campaign trail in the closing stretch of the race \u2014 activity that has been met with similar firepower on the Democratic side.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have a lot of momentum on our side,\u201d Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., who participated in several rallies against the new map last weekend, said in an interview. \u201cAnd as the funding has come in, we\u2019ve been able to do more educating, more outreach to voters.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rep. John McGuire, R-Va., who, like Kiggans, will participate in additional rallies this weekend, added that it\u2019s \u201ca neck-and-neck, 50-50 fight right now,\u201d though he declined repeatedly to predict a win for the \u201cno\u201d side.<\/p>\n
The recent cash influx has allowed Republicans to eat into Democrats\u2019 spending edge. On March 21, the main group supporting the redistricting referendum, Virginians for Fair Elections, had spent 17 times the amount on ads as the primary group opposing the effort, Virginians for Fair Maps, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s now down to three times the amount. As of Friday, Virginians for Fair Elections had spent $48.2 million, while Virginians for Fair Maps had spent $14.1. Total Democratic spending in the race through Friday is $49.1 million, compared with total GOP spending of $17.2 million. Most of the cash on both sides has flowed in from so-called dark money groups<\/a> that aren\u2019t required to disclose their donors.<\/p>\n While that disparity is still glaring, Republicans are also encouraged by recent polling that has largely shown the race within the margin of error.<\/p>\n A Washington Post\/George Mason University poll <\/a>out this month showed that Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were more likely to vote in the April 21 race than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among all likely voters, 52% said they supported the referendum and 47% opposed it, a 5-point edge that was within the survey\u2019s margin of error.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s an uphill battle, because you\u2019re battling against tens of millions of dollars from all corners of the Democrat Party,\u201d said one Republican operative based in Virginia who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the race. \u201cAnd yet, from all public polling, we\u2019re within striking distance.\u201d<\/p>\n Through last weekend, Virginians for Fair Maps held rallies across Virginia featuring Johnson, Youngkin, McGuire, Kiggans and other members of the state\u2019s Republican congressional delegation. More are planned this weekend.<\/p>\n But one figure has been notably missing: President Donald Trump, who first jump-started the mid-decade redistricting battle last year by pressuring GOP-led states to redraw their maps. That prompted Democratic-led states, like Virginia, to launch their own countermoves.<\/p>\n Trump visited Charlottesville for a private fundraiser last week but did not mention the redistricting vote. And while he recently directed his ire<\/a> at Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger on Truth Social, he\u2019s also avoided mentioning the race there. Organizers behind and aligned with the campaign against the redistricting referendum told NBC News on Thursday that there were no plans for Trump to be involved and that they hadn\u2019t asked him to be.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not that we\u2019re not engaging them because we don\u2019t want them. It\u2019s just that we really do believe that it\u2019s more of a Virginia-based issue, and that that needs to be the focus,\u201d Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeff Ryer said. \u201cBut, you know, if the president wanted to engage, you know, we\u2019d have him. I\u2019d be more than happy to have a rally with President Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans in the state were split over whether Trump\u2019s lack of involvement was positive. On the one hand, many noted, Trump has a unique ability to turn out GOP base voters, which would be helpful during a springtime, single-issue ballot referendum.<\/p>\n But others acknowledged that hands-on involvement from Trump would also risk further energizing Democratic voters. Supporters of the new map have already framed much of their messaging around the effort as being a response to Trump.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t think it is necessarily a detriment to us that he\u2019s not making himself the face of the \u2018no\u2019 side,\u201d said the Virginia Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak openly. \u201cDemocrats\u2019 only strategy is to make this about Donald Trump, and this is not about Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n A White House spokesperson didn\u2019t respond to questions about Trump\u2019s involvement in the Virginia referendum.<\/p>\n Republicans have aggressively attempted to tie the measure to Spanberger, who, despite winning by 15 percentage points<\/a> in November, has seen her latest approval rating dip below 50%<\/a>. That\u2019s a far lower mark than the average for Virginia governors this early in their tenure over the last several decades, according to The Washington Post\u2019s polling<\/a>.<\/p>\n Democrats, for their part, are signaling cautious optimism, after feeling more concerned about their prospects of victory<\/a> a few weeks ago. Many cited recent analyses of early voting numbers<\/a> as a reason for their confidence \u2014 though some Republicans point out that turnout has also been strong in GOP-held districts<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m optimistic that Virginians are ready to take back their power, level the playing field, and pass this temporary measure to meet this moment \u2014 protecting our independent redistricting process while pushing back on Trump\u2019s power grab,\u201d said Keren Charles Dongo, the manager for the campaign backing the redistricting referendum.<\/p>\n The referendum seeks to temporarily bypass the state\u2019s bipartisan redistricting commission, which voters approved overwhelmingly in 2020, to enact a new map for the rest of the decade. It would return mapmaking duties to the commission after the 2030 census.<\/p>\n Over the past week, supporters of the new map held rallies and canvassing events featuring House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., former Attorney General Eric Holder and Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. A virtual rally Thursday night featured appearances by California Gov. Gavin Newsom \u2014 who successfully urged voters last year<\/a> to approve a redistricting effort \u2014 Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, along with other elected Democrats.<\/p>\n This weekend, supporters will hold rallies featuring Maryland Gov. Wes Moore \u2014 who, like Newsom, is seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender \u2014 Spanberger and Virginia congressional Democrats. (Notably, Moore also failed to push a redrawn map<\/a> through the Democratic-led state Legislature.)<\/p>\n Former President Barack Obama has gotten involved, too. He\u2019s been featured in ads for Virginians for Fair Elections, saying that \u201cRepublicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years.\u201d He also cut a new video out Friday<\/a> calling on Virginians to vote yes.<\/p>\n Republicans say that Democrats are only showcasing so many national figures because they\u2019re feeling the heat down the stretch. <\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t need anybody from the outside to come to Virginia,\u201d They do because they\u2019re struggling,\u201d said Jason Miyares, the former GOP state attorney general who is now a co-chair of Virginians for Fair Maps. \u201cTo outspend us 3 to 1 and basically have this a toss-up going to Election Day is stunning.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Even as they\u2019ve been massively outspent in a Democratic-leaning state, Republicans say they still have a fighting chance…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":591750,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-591749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/591749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=591749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/591749\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/591750"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=591749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=591749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=591749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Virginians](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/260417-hakeem-jeffries-rs-035a0d.jpg\")
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., speaks at a rally for the group behind the Virginia redistricting campaign.Bill Clark \/ CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images<\/p>\n