{"id":594710,"date":"2026-04-20T01:49:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T01:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/594710\/"},"modified":"2026-04-20T01:49:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T01:49:32","slug":"straits-of-uncertainty-how-middle-east-turmoil-is-reshaping-global-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/594710\/","title":{"rendered":"Straits of Uncertainty: How Middle East Turmoil Is Reshaping Global Energy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tApril 17, 2026 \u2013 Global oil markets are facing an unprecedented supply shock\u2014it could take till year-end just to rebalance\u2014according to energy expert Dan Steffens. In this candid interview, Steffens explains the far-reaching consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure, widespread Middle East infrastructure damage, and why futures prices are badly disconnected from physical oil markets. He discusses looming diesel shortages due to a lack of heavy oil, the U.S.\u2019s new role as the world\u2019s largest oil producer, and the urgent need for natural gas to power AI data centers. Where will oil prices eventually settle? Listen in and find out what Dan has to say. Have any feedback, breaking news, or comments about today’s show? Click here<\/a> to send us a message.<\/p>\n

\n\tFollow more of Dan’s work: Energy Prospectus | Energy Focused<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\tAt Financial Sense\u00ae Wealth Management, we specialize in serving high net worth individuals to achieve their financial goals through tailored portfolio strategies and expert guidance. Reach out today at (888) 486-3939 or click here<\/a> to get in touch.<\/p>\n

\tWays to follow us<\/p>\n

\n\tClient website: Financial Sense Wealth Management<\/a>
X: Financial Sense (@FinancialSense_) \/ X<\/a>
LinkedIn: Financial Sense\u00ae Wealth Management: Overview | LinkedIn<\/a>
YouTube: Financial Sense – YouTube<\/a>
Apple Podcasts: Financial Sense Newshour – Podcast – Apple Podcasts<\/a>
Spotify: Financial Sense(R) Newshour | Podcast on Spotify<\/a><\/p>\n

\tWhat Dan says<\/p>\n

\t\tThe Strait of Hormuz closure trapped about 130 oil tankers and removed roughly 450 million barrels from the global market, leading to ongoing supply constraints even if the strait reopens.<\/p>\n

\t\tOil production disruptions and infrastructure damage in the Middle East will take months to recover, and the market may not rebalance until at least year-end.<\/p>\n

\t\tCurrent oil inventories are tighter than before the conflict, and reports of a 2 million barrel per day glut (the “missing barrels”) from the IEA are not showing up in commercial stockpiles.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe futures market for oil is extremely disconnected from the physical market, with spot sales as high as $140\u2013$150 per barrel while futures are much lower.<\/p>\n

\t\tDiesel shortages are imminent because U.S. shale oil is too light to produce sufficient diesel; heavy oil is required, and there will be more pressure on global supply chains.<\/p>\n

\t\tU.S. exports of light oil have increased dramatically, benefitting European refiners, but global logistics remain strained, and insurance risks for tankers have risen.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe U.S. has become the world’s top oil producer (over 13 million barrels a day), but future growth is limited by declining shale productivity and a need for heavy oil from Canada and Venezuela.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe pipeline and LNG sectors are seeing strong demand, with high dividend yields and growth potential; new LNG export facilities are boosting U.S. exports as global demand surges.<\/p>\n

\t\tThere\u2019s a long-term need for natural gas, particularly to power AI data centers, as renewable energy and electric vehicle infrastructure are not scalable quickly enough.<\/p>\n

\t\tThe push for a rapid energy transition to EVs and renewables is unrealistic worldwide; fossil fuels, especially natural gas and heavy oil, will remain critical for decades.<\/p>\n

\tTranscript<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, this Friday is a good day for consumers. The price of oil is coming down. Is the Strait of Hormuz opening up? Oil prices have come down from the 100 level; we’re down to the low 80s. Will we go lower? Well, it depends on what’s going on in the Middle East. Joining me on the program is Dan Steffens from Energy Prospectus. Dan, let’s talk about oil because we’re looking at oil prices that almost shot up as high as they were during the Ukrainian invasion back in 2022. We got up to almost 120 a barrel. We’re down on this day because the Strait is open, at least. Who knows how long that will last\u2014maybe it’ll open for good, but who knows? So what’s your take on oil and where we might go from here? Do we get down to the low 70s, which is what people are hoping for?<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
No, I don’t think so. I can’t see that happening. You know, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 45 days, so there’s that. And there are 130 oil tankers that were trapped inside the Persian Gulf that are just stranded. Maybe they’re full and ready to go, but I don’t know when they’ll actually be able to go through the Strait. You know, right after someone in Iran announces the Strait is open, then their military generals say that, oh no, everybody’s got to check in with them. No tanker can leave until that. And then the US basically tells everybody, warns everyone they’re still not sure if there are mines in the strait. We haven’t de-mined the whole Strait and all this. So I don’t know. And I’ve been looking at some of the tanker companies that own those ships. They’re pretty much saying they’re going to wait a while to see how this holds up. They don’t want to be the first tanker that gets blown up by a mine or something. And so you have 45 days of supply where 10 or 11 million barrels a day were off the market\u2014so we’re talking about 450 million barrels. That oil is not going to instantly show up next week in China, or in Europe, or something. So we’re going to go through a long period of still being undersupplied. And even if the Strait is fully open, consider the fact that there\u2019s been significant damage done to some oil fields; a bunch of fields are shut in because they can’t export\u2014they’re full, and it takes time to restart that production. There’s been damage to infrastructure\u201410 or 12 tankers were seriously damaged, so they’re out of commission anyway. This is going to take a long time. I think it takes at least until the end of the year before the oil market gets rebalanced, and that assumes we come to some enforceable peace agreement that they’ll actually go for. In Iran, I mean, the history of Iran over the last 45, 47 years or so, they haven’t really abided by any peace agreement or any kind of agreement they’ve signed. They always cheat. You can’t really trust them. But I don’t know\u2014they’ve been hurt badly, so maybe they’ll be better going forward. I don’t know.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, I guess the big question, especially for the administration, is where oil prices are come November.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Right, right. And that’s one of the foresights. You know, Trump knows that lower gasoline prices are probably critical to winning the midterm election. So that’s putting pressure on him. And it’s also the only way he can keep saying that he’s lowering inflation. So they’ll keep pushing this: that they’ve got a great deal, they’re going to get this thing solved, and we’ll go from there. But I don’t know.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, let’s talk about oil inventories. They were pretty tight leading into the war, and they’re probably much tighter now. And I want to talk about something you and I discussed before we went on air: every time the oil price would spike up, you have the IEA coming out and talking about this 2 million barrel a day glut. They’ve been talking about that for almost a year and a half. I call it, Dan, the missing barrels. If we are producing excess oil of 2 million barrels a day, I don’t see it showing up anywhere. It’s not showing up in Cushing, it’s not showing up in inventories. So it’s almost like a false narrative to control the oil markets, because I don’t see where it’s showing up, do you?<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
No. You could say that there was a bunch of it in floating storage, but if it’s floating out in the middle of the ocean, it’s not available for commercial use. And now that’s all been used, because they’ve lifted the sanctions on that. So those ships that had some oil have already emptied. But I mean, you think 400 or 500, okay. And then we’ve been draining oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cushion this. But still, I’m seeing reports that Europe has only got like five or six weeks of jet fuel left before they have to shut down their flights. Then you’ve got diesel\u2014as you probably notice when you go by some filling stations, diesel is getting higher and higher. The gap between gasoline and diesel is going to grow because we cannot make diesel out of the high ultra-light oil that comes out of the shale plays. It’s perfect for making gasoline, but it’s not good for making diesel. You need black oil or heavy oil. So all oil is not the same. And all NGLs are not the same. This is going to get really out of whack. But yeah, the IEA\u2014I stopped trusting them years ago. I’ve been getting their reports for 25 years, and they’re always flopping around on what they want to say. But here we are, and we’ve got a real shortage. It’s the biggest shock to supply ever\u2014by like double. And let’s say they open the strait today. I don’t really think you’re going to get full traffic. And what if they have more negotiations this weekend and they don’t get an agreement? Then we don’t really have anything; it could spike up again tomorrow. I was just looking at this chart today\u2014in the last 30 days, we ran up to 95, then dropped back to 84, then went up to 101 on March 24, soon after the bombing started, then dropped back to 86. Then it goes to 116 on April 7, when I think they rejected Trump’s 15-point plan or something, and then it drops down to 92. This morning it dropped down to 81, then goes over 84, and I think right now it’s like 83.50 as we’re talking\u2014on heavy, heavy volume. Where this thing ends up, who knows. But it could spike right back up. I mean, if they walk away from these peace talks again next Monday or Tuesday, it could run right back up to 100. You just don’t know. And here’s what’s happening in the physical market: there are spot sales going for 140, $150 for immediate delivery. The futures market has never been this out of whack with the physical market. Now, the futures\u2014these are the May contracts. Right now, the front-month NYMEX contract is for May, so that expires at the end of the month. The fact that we’re really close to expiration also exaggerates the moves. All of the selling this morning was just triggered by computers\u2014by algorithms that force these sales right through all the stop-loss orders. Then it gets down so low, and if I’m a refiner, I’m taking this opportunity to buy\u2014to take delivery at Cushing for 81 or $82 and get a break on it because they definitely need it. Our inventories are really going to start being impacted. Some of the more tankers are coming down to the Houston area now to fill up because they can sell that oil, get it back over to Europe, and sell it for 120 or $130 a barrel.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
So, yeah, I’m worried about my own state of California, where we just lost another refiner this month. We lost one last year, now we just lost Valero up in San Francisco. That’s 20% of the gasoline in California. They’ve opened up drilling offshore Santa Barbara, and that oil is going directly to Los Angeles. So at least Los Angeles will have gasoline. But our stupid governor is suing the Trump administration to stop the drilling. So, Dan, we get a lot of our oil from the Middle East, right?<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Yeah, most of the oil that we import in the United States is coming to the West Coast. We don’t get any of it down here in Texas. We don’t import that much; I don’t even think it’s a million barrels a day. We produce about 13.5 million barrels a day, but a lot of it is light oil. I saw in the latest report that our exports have increased significantly, because that light oil is what the European refiners need. They’re going to come in and pay a premium to get that light oil and get it over to Europe. So, there are going to be all these disconnects in the supply chain, and that’s just going to add more cost going forward. And I’m sure\u2014just think about this: what are the insurance rates going to be on these tankers now, and all that? I don’t know, but we’ll see. I’m just anxious\u2014in five days, we may be back to $100 oil again. I don’t know, but I’m not selling anything for a while. People ask, “Where do you think it’s going to settle?” Well, I’ll tell you right now, I’m using 81 a barrel as where I expect to average for 2025, and then 75 a barrel in 2026 and $77 a barrel in 2027. That’s what I’m using in all my forecast valuation models right now. And every day, as long as it’s above 80, I’m pretty confident my models are still accurate. Some of the companies that don’t have any oil hedge\u2014like EOG and Diamondback\u2014don’t have any hedges, and I put pretty big cushions in my forecast models to absorb that if I’m off.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
So who would have thought, Dan, that the US has got oil companies in Venezuela now, so we have Venezuelan oil. I would have never thought that\u2014as a good friend of the late Matt Simmons, we used to have him on the show quite frequently, especially after he wrote “Twilight in the Desert.” Matt didn’t see the shale play, and look where the US is\u2014I think we were down to about, what, 5 million barrels a day?<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
And here we dipped below 4 for a few months, I think.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Yeah, and here we are at 13.5 million barrels. Throw in Venezuelan oil\u2014we are, on the planet, the largest oil producer.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Yeah. And I really do hope everything works out in Venezuela. I went there a couple of times, and you have never seen poverty like you’ve seen in Venezuela. It’s so corrupt\u2014the government has always been corrupt, and they squandered all their wealth by running off the American oil companies. But eventually, maybe they’ll get up to 2 million; it’s not going to be like 5 million barrels a day or anything like that. And it’s very, very heavy oil\u2014it’s very sour oil. It costs more to refine and move and everything. I tell you, I think the big winners in this could be in Canada. They produce a lot of heavy oil, and we\u2019re going to need that heavy oil for diesel, and so is Europe. We’ll be refining diesel and shipping it over to Europe, as well as jet fuel. You need heavy oil to make jet fuel. Home heating oil, diesel, and jet fuel are the main things you need black oil for.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, it’s amazing. Oil stocks have done well this year, and the thing that really surprises me is, even with the pullback in oil and the selloff we’ve seen in pipeline companies\u2014which usually just get transit fees\u2014the dividend yields on these companies are over 7%, and they’ve been growing at almost 7%. I mean, I love them. We own two of them.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Well, the thing to remember is, none of these stocks are really trading as if oil is going to stay at 90 or 100. In the fourth quarter, WTI averaged 59.14. Every upstream company I follow was profitable in that quarter\u2014every single one. So you can imagine then, WTI has averaged about $68 in the first quarter, up $9 a barrel, just because of that run-up to the war. They got a premium for that. If it averages 90 for the first quarter, these companies are going to be reporting significant cash flow. I personally, at 72, want companies that pay really good dividends, and there are a lot of these companies that do. Our high-yield income portfolio\u2014I think the average yield is 7 or 8%, and they also have a lot of growth. I don\u2019t invest just for dividend yield; I invest for both growth and income, and potential near-term dividend increases. And they will, now, because of these prices. Let’s say it just settles at 75\u2014that\u2019s $12 more than the average price last year in 2025. So if in 2026 we’re at 75 and 77 in 2027, it\u2019s going up. But I talked to some analysts in Canada quite a bit, and even before the war we were saying, because of the lack of expenditures on exploration and the development of new supplies, that we were definitely headed toward a period of much higher oil prices. In the shale plays, a lot of the tier one acreage has been drilled, and they don’t have a lot of upside left. Even if you go full “drill baby drill,” maybe another million barrels a day, but there are so many wells on steep decline, and they produce that light oil. We’re going to need heavy oil. We’ll have to start exploring more in the Gulf of Mexico, up in Alaska, even offshore Africa and elsewhere. These are longer-term projects, too. You need the investors and capital markets to get more confidence that oil prices aren’t going to go back down to 50 or something like that. I can’t possibly see that happening. But you need confidence in the markets to invest billions in new offshore drilling.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
You know, I think what this war has really demonstrated is that this global economy of ours, as high-tech as it is, still runs on oil. And not to bash the IEA, but I remember three or four years ago, they were urging oil companies to divest themselves of drilling and oil assets because they would end up being stranded assets, since we would all be driving EVs and the economy would be powered by solar panels and windmills.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Yeah, I don’t think there’s ever been a bigger paradigm shift push\u2014when they were literally convincing everybody oil was bad, we all need to be driving EVs, when they knew there\u2019s no way we could all be driving electric cars. There’s not enough copper in the world; we’d have to rebuild and expand our grid by trillions. Really, this world will be running on fossil fuels for the next hundred years or so. At some point, oil does get so expensive that we do start shifting more big trucks and such to natural gas. Natural gas is great for electricity generation and we can run internal combustion vehicles on it\u2014we have for years. Actually, trucks run cleaner. The trucking companies just haven’t bought in because they’d have to pay about $15,000 a truck to convert them, and you also have to have the delivery system\u2014compressed natural gas filling stations all along the interstates. But that could be done. Instead of the money wasted on windmills, we could have expanded the distribution network for natural gas.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, it’s amazing. I’ve seen Amazon has switched to EVs, and have you seen the new semi-electric vehicle that Tesla\u2019s come out with? You have DHL now buying their trucks and going to these EV semi-trucks.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Oh yeah. I’m glad\u2014it’s good that we have electric vehicles. Maybe the richer countries\u2014like us and Europe\u2014can convert some to it, but you’re not going to get these third world countries on board. They don’t even have grids strong enough to get electricity to their homes, much less power all their vehicles. That’s not going to happen. And gas is just going to stay pretty abundant. With our ability to drill deeper horizontal wells, and all the gas reserves left in the Permian Basin, we’ve easily got a couple of hundred years’ worth of natural gas reserves. I follow a company that actually helps AI data centers put in their own power plants\u2014their backlog is incredible.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
So, yeah, I mean, we’re going to need natural gas. It seems like the only short-term solution to power these AI centers is natural gas. You’re following a company; we are, too. One thing we\u2019ve seen\u2014especially in elections last year\u2014are utility rates becoming a political issue. Some states are even banning AI centers for that reason. So, the administration is urging these tech companies to put together deals for natural gas plants directly with energy companies so they don\u2019t drive up local utility rates.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Yeah, and on the AI data centers\u2014for one thing, let’s talk about natural gas. There are two really big natural gas export facilities coming online. Exxon\u2019s Golden Pass facility has already started loading ships with LNG, and there are going to be seven trains. I think there were only one or two on at Corpus Christi 3, and now they\u2019ll get up to seven trains running by the end of the year. That adds about 4 BCF per day of additional export capacity. Just in the last 10 years, we’ve gone from virtually zero exports to over 20 BCF a day. I saw the announcement just the other day that we set a new record for the amount of LNG exported. If you’ve been paying attention to war damage, Iran significantly damaged Oman\u2019s big LNG export facility. It’s been half destroyed and has to be rebuilt\u2014it’ll take three or four years to rebuild. This is super bullish for US LNG exporters, because before all this started, you kept hearing there was going to be a big surplus of LNG and these things wouldn\u2019t be able to sell their gas. Well, now, you’ll see for the next five years they’ll be able to sell all the LNG\u2014Europe\u2019s going to need every drop. I looked this morning\u2014our gas prices are $2.70 or 2.80, and Europe’s at $14 or $15 per MMBtu, Asia at $19 or $20 per MMBtu. Profit margins on LNG are outstanding. And with this additional demand, when people look at the natural gas storage report every week and see it’s a little above the five-year average, that’s misleading. Our natural gas demand is now 15 or 20 billion cubic feet per day higher than it was five years ago. We’re going to need a lot of gas in storage to make it through the winters every year now.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
Well, I love the pipeline companies, you know. With T-bill rates down to the 3% range, I’ll take a 7% plus dividend yield that grows at 7% every day of the week.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Oh yeah, they’re great. There are some big ones that pay really nice dividends. And I think the LNG tanker companies look good too. Some of these royalty funds\u2014I don’t think people really understand them\u2014they don’t have much risk because they don’t have drilling risk, and they will really benefit from a long period of higher oil prices, that’s for sure.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
All right. Well, listen, Dan, as we close\u2014and what a great weekend. Stock market up, oil prices down. If people want to follow your work at Energy Prospectus, tell them how they can do so easily.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Well, our website is energyprospectus.com, and if you want to contact us, you can send an email to Sabrina\u2014she is my helper. If you send email to energyperspectusmail.com, they go to her. Say you heard about us on your show, and I think she’ll give you a hundred-dollar discount on the first year. It’s normally $350 to subscribe, so you get a hundred dollars off your first year. We do a newsletter every month\u2014I’m writing one this weekend\u2014a lot to talk about for sure. We publish independent reports on a bunch of companies. It\u2019s a crazy time right now, but there\u2019s a lot of opportunity in this market.<\/p>\n

\n\tJim Puplava:
All right. Dan, you have yourself a great weekend. Thanks for coming on the program.<\/p>\n

\n\tDan Steffens:
Okay, thanks for having me.<\/p>\n

\n\tTo learn more about Financial Sense\u00ae Wealth Management, give us a call at (888) 486-3939<\/a> or click here<\/a> to contact us.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe views and opinions expressed in this interview are solely those of the interviewee(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views, policies, or positions of Financial Sense Wealth Management.<\/p>\n

\n\tContent is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or other advice.<\/p>\n

\n\tThere are risks involved in investing, including the potential for loss of principal.<\/p>\n

\n\tForward-looking statements are based on assumptions that may not materialize and are subject to risks and uncertainties.<\/p>\n

\n\tAny mention of specific securities or investment strategies is not an endorsement or recommendation.<\/p>\n

\n\tAdvisory services offered through Financial Sense\u00ae Advisors, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Financial Sense\u00ae Securities, Inc., Member FINRA\/SIPC. DBA Financial Sense\u00ae Wealth Management. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"April 17, 2026 \u2013 Global oil markets are facing an unprecedented supply shock\u2014it could take till year-end just…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":594711,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-594710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/594711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}