Getting Iran to capitulate is like breaking a wild horse. Anyone who\u2019s done it \u2014 or even watched it done \u2014 knows how this goes. Calm one minute, violent the next. You get a step forward, then you lose half of it back. The horse is testing you \u2014 your patience, your resolve, your willingness to stay in the saddle when it tries to throw you.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s Iran.<\/p>\n
And here\u2019s the part the foreign policy commentariat still doesn\u2019t get: Donald Trump<\/a> actually understands this dynamic.<\/p>\n What Comes Next In The Iran War? What This Ceasefire Will And Won’t Do<\/a><\/p>\n Not from theory. From instinct.<\/p>\n Iran is not a normal negotiating partner. It\u2019s not even a unified one. Power is fragmented across clerics, politicians, intelligence services and, most importantly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps<\/a> \u2014 a state within a state that answers to ideology, money and survival.<\/p>\n Read On The Fox News App<\/a><\/p>\n And inside that system are hard-liners who don\u2019t want a deal \u2014 period. These are people who would rather burn down the house than give up their nuclear potential<\/a>, their offshore wealth and their grip on power. For them, compromise isn\u2019t a concession. It\u2019s extinction.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s Nuclear Gamble Leaves America One Choice \u2014 And It Can’t Be A Deal<\/a><\/p>\n So when I hear the usual noise \u2014 why the mixed signals, why the tough talk one day and restraint the next \u2014 I have to laugh. That critique assumes we\u2019re dealing with rational, Western-style negotiators who respond to consistency and good-faith process.<\/p>\n We\u2019re not.<\/p>\n We\u2019re dealing with a regime that has spent 45 years perfecting delay, deception and division. Show them a straight line and they\u2019ll run circles around it. Telegraph your endgame and they\u2019ll stall you to death.<\/p>\n Steve Forbes: Iran\u2019s Nuclear Insanity Leaves America And Allies No Room To Blink<\/a><\/p>\n What Trump is doing \u2014 whether people like his style or not \u2014 is exactly what this situation demands: pressure, pause, pressure again. Open a door, then make it very clear what happens if they try to game it. Keep them off balance. Keep them guessing.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not chaos. That\u2019s leverage.<\/p>\n And here\u2019s where the leverage really comes from \u2014 and it\u2019s something most analysts either miss or are too uncomfortable to say out loud.<\/p>\n Amb Gordon Sondland: Nato Blinked On Iran, And Trump Has Every Right To Be Furious<\/a><\/p>\n The leverage is the overwhelming military capability<\/a> that\u2019s been assembled \u2014 and the very clear willingness to use it if the horse needs a severe correction.<\/p>\n Not as bluster. Not as background noise. As a credible, ever-present option.<\/p>\n Tehran understands that when push comes to shove, this isn\u2019t an academic exercise. The same apparatus that can impose sanctions can also impose consequences \u2014 rapidly and decisively \u2014 against leadership targets, command structures and critical infrastructure if the regime crosses the line or continues to play rope-a-dope.<\/p>\n Robert Maginnis: Why Islamabad Talks Were Always Doomed To Fail<\/a><\/p>\n That reality changes behavior.<\/p>\n It forces calculations inside a regime that has historically believed it could outlast, outmaneuver or simply exhaust Western resolve. It introduces doubt where there used to be confidence. It sharpens the internal debate between those who want to test limits and those who understand the cost of getting it wrong.<\/p>\n This is, at its core, a test of wills and power<\/a>, carried out to its logical conclusion.<\/p>\n Why Trump, Iran Seem Light-years Apart On Any Possible Deal To End The War<\/a><\/p>\n Most leaders don\u2019t understand that. They look for an off-ramp too early. They prioritize optics over outcomes. They confuse activity with achievement.<\/p>\n Trump doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n He understands that if you ease off before the dynamic shifts, you don\u2019t get a better deal \u2014 you get played. He understands that credibility isn\u2019t built on statements; it\u2019s built on a demonstrated willingness to act. And he understands that regimes like Iran only recalibrate when the alternative becomes unacceptable.<\/p>\n Morning Glory: The Us-iran Negotiations In Islamabad Became Reykjav\u00edk 2.0<\/a><\/p>\n That\u2019s what\u2019s happening now.<\/p>\n And yes, it makes people uneasy.<\/p>\n Turn on the TV and it\u2019s a minute-by-minute panic cycle. Gas prices tick up \u2014 breaking news. Some leak hits the wires \u2014 six hours of speculation. Who said what at 9 a.m. versus 3 p.m. \u2014 treated like it\u2019s dispositive.<\/p>\n No Retreat At Hormuz \u2014 Iran Must Not Control The World\u2019s Energy Lifeline<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s noise.<\/p>\n This is not a daily trading strategy. This is a generational geopolitical play.<\/p>\n The upside, if we get this right, is enormous. A truly non-nuclear Iran changes the entire equation in the Middle East<\/a>. It removes the single biggest destabilizing force in the region.<\/p>\n Pakistani General Says Iran Diplomacy Still ‘Alive, Despite Us Blockade, Failed Talks<\/a><\/p>\n Imagine a world where Iran is not shooting at Israel, not funding proxy militias across multiple theaters and not sitting on the threshold of a nuclear weapon. Even if the regime remains clerical, its ability to wreak havoc is dramatically reduced.<\/p>\n That opens the door to something real \u2014 trade, investment, normalization<\/a>. Stronger economic ties between Israel, the Gulf states, the United States and beyond. Capital flows instead of capital flight. Stability instead of constant brinkmanship.<\/p>\n That\u2019s what\u2019s on the table.<\/p>\n Steve Forbes: No More Delusions \u2014 America Has To Finish The Job In Iran<\/a><\/p>\n Now look at Europe.<\/p>\n The Europeans, predictably, want to make the campaign contribution after the candidate has already won the election. They\u2019ll criticize the tone, question the tactics and keep one foot in and one foot out \u2014 until the outcome is clear.<\/p>\n Then they\u2019ll show up and declare themselves indispensable.<\/p>\n Trump Pushed Iran To The Brink \u2014 But Did We Win Anything That Lasts?<\/a><\/p>\n We\u2019ve seen this movie before.<\/p>\n The reality is that without sustained American pressure \u2014 economic<\/a> and military \u2014 there is no deal worth having. None. Iran has no incentive to move unless it believes the alternative is materially worse.<\/p>\n That\u2019s what Trump has restored: credibility<\/a>.<\/p>\n Morning Glory: President Trump Leads The West To A Big Win Against Iran<\/a><\/p>\n And credibility is everything in this kind of negotiation.<\/p>\n What\u2019s required now is discipline. Not second-guessing every tactical move. Not flinching every time there\u2019s volatility. Certainly not pulling back just because the process looks messy.<\/p>\n Of course it\u2019s messy. It\u2019s supposed to be.<\/p>\n One Month At War With Iran \u2014 Can Washington\u00a0define Victory?<\/a><\/p>\n Breaking a horse is messy. Push too hard and you get thrown. Ease off too soon and you lose control. The key is staying on long enough for the dynamic to change.<\/p>\n That\u2019s what\u2019s happening here.<\/p>\n The pressure is real<\/a>. Iran\u2019s economy is under strain. Its currency has taken repeated hits. Public dissatisfaction is not theoretical \u2014 it\u2019s visible. And inside the regime<\/a>, the debate over how far they can push \u2014 and how much they can take \u2014 is intensifying.<\/p>\n Not Bluffing: Stephen Miller Says Trump Is Directly Involved, ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Iran Negotiations<\/a><\/p>\n That\u2019s progress.<\/p>\n Not a signing ceremony. Not a neat press release. Pressure.<\/p>\n So let\u2019s take a breath.<\/p>\n Why Trump Faces An Agonizing Decision On Obliterating Iran\u2019s Oil Supply If He Can\u2019t Get A Deal<\/a><\/p>\n Stop obsessing over hourly gas prices. Stop parsing every headline like it\u2019s the final chapter. This is a long game, and it\u2019s being played at a level that requires patience and nerve.<\/p>\n The stakes are enormous. A neutered, non-nuclear Iran removes the last major obstacle to a more stable, more prosperous Middle East \u2014 one where trade, not terror, defines its relationships.<\/p>\n Click Here For More Fox News Opinion<\/a><\/p>\n You don\u2019t get there with process. You get there with pressure.<\/p>\n And for all the noise, that\u2019s exactly what Trump is delivering.<\/p>\n Click Here To Download The Fox News App<\/a><\/p>\n He\u2019s staying in the saddle.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s how you break the horse.<\/p>\n