{"id":598969,"date":"2026-04-22T05:03:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T05:03:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/598969\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T05:03:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T05:03:14","slug":"researchers-dispute-us-governments-upbeat-data-about-pepfars-impact-on-hiv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/598969\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers Dispute US Government&#8217;s Upbeat Data About PEPFAR\u2019s Impact On HIV"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"126415\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/millions-at-risk-of-hiv-infection-and-death-after-us-funding-cuts-warns-unaids\/screenshot-2025-07-09-at-17-15-05\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-09-at-17.15.05.png?fit=1766%2C982&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1766,982\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"PEPFAR Luyengo Clinic\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Luyengo Clinic in Eswatini. PEPFAR funded 80% of the clinic\u2019s cost, and the HIV treatment of 3,000 clients has been in jeopardy.&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-09-at-17.15.05.png?fit=640%2C356&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"wp-image-126415\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-2025-07-09-at-17.15.05-1024x569.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"556\"  \/>PEPFAR funded 80% of the running costs of Luyengo Clinic in Eswatini, and the HIV treatment of 3,000 clients was distrupted when the US froze foreign aid.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers have challenged several upbeat claims made by the United States government about the continued impact of the US President\u2019s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The US State Department claims that PEPFAR has sustained its impact on HIV despite the service disruptions and funding cuts introduced by the Trump administration.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2026\/04\/pepfar-data-release\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">data release<\/a> covering 1 July through 31 September (the fourth quarter of the US budget cycle), the US government reports that PEPFAR supported 20,6 million people in over 50 countries on anti-retroviral (ARV) treatment. They note that this is \u201cstable from the same FY 2024 reporting period\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThree million people now receive treatment from national governments rather than external PEPFAR implementers,\u201d with two million \u201csuccessfully transitioned\u201d during the fourth quarter alone, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2026\/04\/pepfar-data-release\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">statement<\/a> from the US State Department\u2019s Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy (GHSD).<\/p>\n<p>PEPFAR initiated 103,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), \u201cmore than double the 43,000 from a year ago\u201d, according to the GHSD. PrEP involves HIV negative people taking ARVs to prevent infection.<\/p>\n<p>While the GHSD acknowledges a decline in the number of children on HIV treatment \u2013 from 643,627 in 2022 to 508,703 in 2025 \u2013 it attributes this to \u201ctremendous progress\u201d in prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT).<\/p>\n<p>Historically, however, HIV positive children are hard to reach, and only slightly over half of children under the age of 15 who are living with HIV are actually on ARVs, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.unicef.org\/topic\/hivaids\/paediatric-treatment-and-care\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">according to UNICEF<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe message is clear: we cut overall spending by 30% while preserving critical frontline HIV care and eliminating wasteful programs. This proves the America First Global Health Strategy works,\u201d according to the GHSD.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Substantial disruptions\u2019<\/p>\n<p>But researchers \u2013 from AmFAR, the Foundation for AIDS Research, and the International AIDS Society (IAS) \u2013 argue in a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.64898\/2026.04.17.26351143v1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\"> preprint<\/a> article that there have been \u201csubstantial disruptions across PEPFAR service areas\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Their analysis is based on both the newly released fourth quarter figures plus \u200b\u200bdata from \u201can earlier inadvertent release [that] included all four quarters.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It covers 31,746 facilities and community service sites, which the researchers classify according to their reporting records as \u201ccontinuous\u201d (71.3%, who submitted reports every month), \u201cintermittent\u201d (16.9%, submitting some reports) and \u201ccommunity services\u201d (2.5%).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>They report a \u201cmodest\u201d 0,3% decline in people accessing HIV treatment, which is similar to the State Department assertion.<\/p>\n<p>But the researchers \u2013 Brian Honermann, Elise Lankiewicz, Jennifer Sherwood and Greg Millett from AmFAR and Anna Grimsrud from IAS \u2013 assert that this stable figure \u201cobscures substantial changes\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201ccontinuous facilities\u201d rebounded to slightly above their 2024 level as they maintained \u201cat least some level of support from PEPFAR and are primarily owned and operated by ministries of health\u201d. (Around three-quarters of PEPFAR-supported facilities in 2024 were government facilities.)<\/p>\n<p>They describe access to treatment as a \u201clagging indicator\u201d of the overall health system performance because stable patients on treatment \u201calready have strong routines in place for continually collecting medication.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Decline in testing, PrEP and health workers<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"115324\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/zimbabwe-turns-tide-on-hiv-although-a-few-people-still-refuse-treatment\/hiv-pic_1-jpg\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/HIV-pic_1.jpg.webp?fit=1920%2C1280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1280\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"HIV testing\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;A Zimbabwean health worker administers an HIV test.&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/HIV-pic_1.jpg.webp?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"wp-image-115324\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/HIV-pic_1.jpg-1024x683.webp.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\"  \/>A Zimbabwean health worker administers an HIV test.<\/p>\n<p>The drop in HIV testing portends future weaknesses. There was an overall 17% decline in HIV testing \u2013 the gateway to ensuring people with HIV are on treatment \u2013 resulting in a 16% decrease in the number of people initiated on ARV treatment.<\/p>\n<p>Infant HIV testing declined by 6%, and infant diagnoses declined by 12% in the \u201ccontinuous facilities\u201d. There was a precipitous decline of 60% in testing and 31% in diagnosis in the \u201cintermittent facilities\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe significant declines in HIV testing, diagnoses, treatment initiations, and treatment retention programming, however, raise serious concerns for countries\u2019 capacity to maintain progress toward the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unaids.org\/sites\/default\/files\/media_asset\/progress-towards-95-95-95_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">95-95-95 targets <\/a>\u2013 the United Nations target of 95% of people with HIV knowing their status; 95% on ARVs and 95% virally suppressed, adopted in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>PrEP initiations declined by 33% \u2013\u00a0 largely as the Trump administration has designated PrEP for pregnant and breastfeeding women, rather than the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unaids.org\/en\/topic\/key-populations#:~:text=According%20to%20UNAIDS%2C%20the%20five%20main%20key,of%20new%20HIV%20infections%20in%20sub%2DSaharan%20Africa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">key populations<\/a>\u201d most at risk of HIV.<\/p>\n<p>The PEPFAR-supported workforce was reduced by 22% between 2024 and 2025, a loss of some 76,051 jobs.<\/p>\n<p>Instability, grant cancellation<\/p>\n<p>The researchers \u2013 Brian Honermann, Elise Lankiewicz, Jennifer Sherwood and Greg Millett from AmFAR and Anna Grimsrud from IAS \u2013 recount the damage to PEPFAR starting from Trump\u2019s executive order on 20 January, freezing all foreign aid disbursements.<\/p>\n<p>This was followed by a stop work order on 24 January 24 for all foreign aid awards, including PEPFAR.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFollowing this period, a series of waivers allowed for the partial resumption of PEPFAR programming, including a PEPFAR-specific waiver that permitted a defined subset of HIV care, treatment, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission services to continue,\u201d they note.<\/p>\n<p>But \u201cthe subsequent months were characterized by considerable instability, including cycles of award cancellations and reinstatements, legal challenges to the freeze, and the permanent dissolution of USAID, which was one of two major PEPFAR implementing agencies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>They point to other research that has modelled the calamitous impact of these disruptions on the fight against HIV.<\/p>\n<p>The last PEPFAR data?<\/p>\n<p>They also acknowledge that the full implications of the foreign aid review have been \u201cdifficult to assess\u201d as the US government has released \u201cno official list of terminated and active awards post-review\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>However, they also note that \u201cthis is potentially the last data set PEPFAR will ever release\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUnder the terms of the <a href=\"https:\/\/healthpolicy-watch.news\/us-speeds-up-signing-of-bilateral-health-agreements\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">memoranda of understanding (MOUs)<\/a> that the US State Department is currently signing with partner governments, public disclosure of data from those data sets is prohibited, including with external researchers, academics, or advocacy organizations,\u201d they note.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWithout public data sets that enable national, sub-national, facility-level, and implementing mechanism level scrutiny, it is virtually impossible for external oversight and accountability to take place, whether within the US government or outside it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"image-credits\">Image Credits: <a href=\"\" target=\"_blank\">UNAIDS<\/a>, <a href=\"\" target=\"_blank\">UNICEF Zimbabwe<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:0.9rem; text-align:center\">Combat the infodemic in health information and support health policy reporting from the global South.  Our  growing network of journalists in Africa, Asia, Geneva and New York connect the dots between regional realities and the big global debates, with evidence-based, open access news and analysis. To make a personal or organisational contribution click here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"PEPFAR funded 80% of the running costs of Luyengo Clinic in Eswatini, and the HIV treatment of 3,000&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":277863,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-598969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/277863"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}