{"id":602214,"date":"2026-04-23T20:06:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T20:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/602214\/"},"modified":"2026-04-23T20:06:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T20:06:12","slug":"tehran-is-following-ho-chi-minhs-playbook-in-vietnam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/602214\/","title":{"rendered":"Tehran is Following Ho Chi Minh\u2019s Playbook in Vietnam"},"content":{"rendered":"

No, Iran is not yet \u201canother Vietnam.\u201d There are no U.S. ground forces taking unsustainable casualties, no headlines tallying the week\u2019s dead, no massive anti-war protests in U.S. streets. And of course, rather than a beaten-down Lyndon Baines Johnson, the current U.S. president is bragging that he\u2019s only been at this war a few months and, by the way, he would have won Vietnam \u201cvery quickly<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the pressure that Tehran is applying to Donald Trump suddenly feels very much like what flummoxed LBJ in Vietnam. Specifically, it resembles the winning strategy so doggedly pursued by Ho Chi Minh, the iconic North Vietnamese leader.<\/p>\n

By resisting talks to end the war quickly and forcing Trump to extend his cease-fire<\/a> indefinitely\u2014which the president insisted he wouldn\u2019t do only days ago\u2014the Iranian leadership (whoever that might be) appears to be following Ho\u2019s playbook.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A group of about three dozen soldiers in green fatigues rest on a hillside stripped of most of its vegetation. Shattered tree trunks and fallen branches litter the ground, and a military helicopter is visible in the background.<\/p>\n

An area near Quang Tri serves as an outdoor chapel as members of the U.S. 1st Cavalry Division hold services for those killed in the area during the Vietnam War. Bettmann Archive\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

It was Ho and his successor in the 1960s, Le Duan, who defeated two Western imperial powers\u2014first France, then the United States\u2014by understanding what Tehran appears to understand: Aggressors from far away, no matter how powerful, will tire of war well before you do. As Ho told<\/a> the French colonialists back in 1946: \u201cYou can kill 10 of our men for every one we kill of yours, but even at those odds, you will lose and we will win.\u201d<\/p>\n

And it was Ho and Le Duan who repeatedly defied Johnson\u2019s increasingly desperate pleas for negotiations, just as Tehran is now humiliating Trump. In a letter<\/a> written to LBJ in 1967, Ho made clear that he would not consider entering into negotiations until \u201cthe unconditional cessation of U.S. bombing raids and all other acts of war,\u201d adding that the \u201cVietnamese people will never submit to force, they will never accept talks under threat of bombs.\u201d<\/p>\n

During the 1960s, Johnson regularly fulminated in his councils of war about Hanoi\u2019s \u00a0stubbornness, wondering why increased airstrikes and sustained bombing campaigns \u00a0beginning with Operation Rolling Thunder had failed to force North Vietnamese leaders to the table. \u201cI don\u2019t believe they\u2019re ever going to quit,\u201d he told<\/a> his defense secretary, Robert McNamara, at one point.<\/p>\n

Similarly in Iran\u2014while there has been evidence of what Trump called<\/a> \u201cseriously fractured\u201d leadership\u2014 Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf<\/a>, the parliamentary speaker, declared<\/a> that Tehran would \u201cnot accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.\u201d This week, Iranian negotiators left Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance waiting anxiously at the White House for a phone call that never came. For good measure, Ghalibaf\u2014who is supposedly more moderate than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in charge\u2014said Tehran was using the cease-fire to prepare \u201cto reveal new cards on the battlefield.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s response on April 21 was to announce<\/a> on Truth Social that he will \u201cextend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted.\u201d Translation: Iran now seems to be calling the shots.<\/p>\n

\u201cFifty years after the Vietnam War concluded, once again the U.S. is repeating this history in the war with Iran,\u201d said Hai Nguyen, the co-founder and director of the Global Vietnam Wars Studies Initiative<\/a> at the Harvard Kennedy School.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn an asymmetric war, similar to the Vietnamese during the Vietnam War, Iranians have advantages beyond what the Americans could comprehend,\u201d Nguyen told me. \u201cThey understand that the U.S. could drop thousands of tons of bombs, but it does not possess the patience to withstand a prolonged war. Like the Vietnamese revolutionaries, the Iranians appear ready to fight a protracted war with much sacrifice of national resources. Iran, in other words, understands the Achilles\u2019 heel of the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is what surrender looks like,\u201d wrote<\/a> former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder in a blog post. \u201cIt was Trump who wanted a ceasefire, seeing that further escalation wasn\u2019t bringing Iran around and fearing the economic and political fallout of continuing the war. If Trump now extends the ceasefire indefinitely, Iran is fine with that. Right now, all of the advantages are with Iran, not with Trump. The US president\u2019s only card is restarting a war he doesn\u2019t want. Meanwhile, Iran holds the rest of the cards.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even with huge swaths of its leadership wiped out, the Islamic Republic controls access to the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> and appears to be increasing that control, seizing several vessels this week and sneaking past the U.S. blockade. According<\/a> to the Financial Times, citing cargo tracking group Vortexa, as of Tuesday, approximately 34 oil tankers linked to Iran have passed through the blockade.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the director of the U.S. Defense Department\u2019s Defense Intelligence Agency, Marine Corps Lt. Gen. James H. Adams, conceded during congressional testimony that Iran \u201cretains thousands<\/a>\u201d of missiles and one-way attack drones. CBS reported<\/a> on April 22 that about half of Iran\u2019s stockpile of ballistic missiles and launch systems were still intact as of the start of the cease-fire<\/a> on April 8, along with about 60 percent of the IRGC\u2019s naval arm, which is used to disrupt the strait.<\/p>\n

These numbers tend to belie statements from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who declared<\/a> on the day the cease-fire began that \u201cOperation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A black-and-white photograph of a man with glasses and slicked-back hair speaking into multiple microphones. Behind him is a large map or diagram featuring circular inset photos.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tU.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara speaks during a press conference in Washington on April 26, 1964. Behind him is a map of Vietnam that shows various military installations. Marion S Trikosko\/PhotoQuest\/Getty Images
\n\t\t\t\t
<\/p>\n

\"Hegseth,<\/p>\n

Hegseth, a man in a blue suit and striped tie, speaks at a podium. Behind him is a large wall plaque that reads “THE PENTAGON WASHINGTON” featuring an illustration of the building, flanked by a light blue flag with an eagle.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tU.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks during a news conference on U.S. military action in Iran, at the Pentagon in Washington, on March 2. Brendan Smialowski\/AFP via Getty Images
\n\t\t\t\t
<\/p>\n

Indeed, what feels most Vietnam-like right now may be the daily declarations of battlefield success by Hegseth, who is proving to be a cartoonish version of McNamara, the \u201cbest and brightest<\/a>\u201d numbers whiz who repeatedly deceived the nation<\/a> into believing that the United States was winning in Vietnam. McNamara became notorious for citing \u201cbody counts\u201d and other statistical evidence of battlefield attrition. Similarly Hegseth\u2014whom Pentagon staff have reportedly<\/a> nicknamed \u201cDumb McNamara\u201d\u2014has been keen on quantifying Washington\u2019s \u201cdecisive military victory<\/a>\u201d in Iran by citing numbers of missiles, launchers, and ships destroyed, along with leaders killed.<\/p>\n

But that no longer counts as much as it did a month or two ago. In an assessment<\/a> of the Paris peace talks over Vietnam in 1969, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote: \u201cWe fought a military war; our opponents fought a political one. We sought physical attrition; our opponents aimed for our psychological exhaustion.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Vietnamese achieved exhaustion of their enemy in Washington well before the Americans could succeed at sufficient attrition in Vietnam. That led to an uncompromising stance by Hanoi when talks did begin and prompted Kissinger himself to declare falsely before the fall of South Vietnam that \u201cpeace is at hand.\u201d<\/p>\n

A similar dynamic may be at play with Iran at the moment. The main difference, perhaps, is that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians are trying to swiftly exhaust Trump with an economic assault<\/a> as well as a political war<\/a>\u2014one that could hurt him and his party badly, especially only six months away from the midterms.<\/p>\n

\u201cTehran may well be making the same calculation Hanoi did: If we absorb and endure U.S. aerial punishment while refusing to negotiate seriously, American public support for protracted indecisive war will erode over time, thus increasing the pressure on Washington to make more concessions in negotiations,\u201d said Brian VanDeMark, a historian at the U.S. Naval Academy.<\/p>\n

Vietnam hurt Johnson economically too, of course, as spending on the war increasingly led to a budget crisis<\/a> for Johnson and his beloved \u201cGreat Society\u201d programs\u2014eventually contributing to high inflation and devastating electoral defeats for the Democrats.<\/p>\n

But the chokehold that the Iranians have is much more substantial and immediate than anything that Ho once enjoyed, driving up energy prices worldwide<\/a>. The Strait of Hormuz closure is already the worst<\/a> oil supply disruption in history and could lead to a global recession, according<\/a> to the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n

Still, the stock market<\/a> and other indices<\/a> have continued strong, and Trump is giving no indication that he\u2019s on a back foot, suggesting that he has all the time in the world. In an interview<\/a> with CNBC on April 21, he rattled off a dubious list of figures about U.S. involvement in previous wars going back to World War I, claiming he was only \u201cfive months\u201d into his current conflict (actually, it\u2019s closer to three months). \u201cI would have won Vietnam very quickly. I would have, if I were president, I would have won Iraq in the same amount of time that we won, because essentially, we won here,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But so far, little seems to have been won at all.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A group of seven workers in bright orange jumpsuits use shovels and brooms to clear dust and debris from a street. In the background, a building has been heavily damaged, with large sections of its structure collapsed into a pile of rubble.<\/p>\n

Workers clean at the site of Israeli-U.S. strikes in Tehran on April 7. AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n

It is an all-too-familiar strategic error made by great powers when they invade one too many smaller ones, as Washington itself has learned since 9\/11. Indeed, the Trump administration has made clear that the president has sought to avoid the quagmire of Iraq and Afghanistan by avoiding the deployment of ground troops<\/a> if possible.<\/p>\n

In Afghanistan, before the United States pulled out following a fitful two-decade effort to pacify the nation, the Taliban used to say, \u201cYou have the watches, but we have the time.\u201d The common thread tying together Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan is that nationalist resistance\u2014whether by the Viet Cong, Iraqi jihadis, or the Taliban\u2014will often outlast the endurance of even a powerful foreign occupier.<\/p>\n

As Nguyen put it, \u201cAfter the war, McNamara said that one of the reasons for the Americans\u2019 defeat in Vietnam was that they did not understand Vietnam\u2019s long history of struggle against invasions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last June, following Trump\u2019s involvement in the short U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, Vance\u2014known to be a skeptic of such conflicts\u2014said<\/a> in a speech: \u201cWhat I call the Trump Doctrine is quite simple: Number one, you articulate a clear American interest, and that\u2019s\u2014in this case\u2014that Iran can\u2019t have a nuclear weapon. Number two, you try to aggressively diplomatically solve that problem. And number three, when you can\u2019t solve it diplomatically, you use overwhelming military power to solve it, and then you get the hell out of there before it ever becomes a protracted conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A black-and-white photograph of Lyndon B. Johnson sitting at a desk, looking down at a document with a weary expression. He has one hand pressed against his forehead and his tie is loosened.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tU.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson looks at documents on his desk in the Cabinet Room of the White House as he prepares to make an address about the Vietnam War. Bettmann Archive\/Getty Images
\n\t\t\t\t
<\/p>\n

\"Donald<\/p>\n

Donald Trump sits at a large wooden desk in the Oval Office, looking down at an open folder. Several framed photos and various flags, including the U.S. Navy flag, are visible in the background.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tU.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign paperwork in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on March 16. Alex Wong\/Getty Images
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<\/p>\n

In this case, Trump has not stated a clear goal, and if he does eventually get Iran to the table, it\u2019s looking increasingly like the United States may have to accept compromises similar to President Barack Obama\u2019s 2015 nuclear deal. That includes the question of what to do about Iran\u2019s nearly-bomb-ready enriched nuclear material. The earlier pact, before Trump canceled it, required<\/a> Iran to ship 98 percent of it out of the country. Now Trump keeps insisting Iran will hand over its nuclear material, while Tehran says it\u2019s made no such concession.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhere the stronger power\u2019s interest is limited, it\u2019s frequently the case that weaker beats the strong because the stronger power reaches its threshold to quit before the weaker power does,\u201d said retired U.S. Army Col. C. Anthony Pfaff, a strategist at the Atlantic Council.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s what I see in this exchange,\u201d he added. \u201cEven if we present Tehran with reasonable demands from their point of view, they\u2019re incentivized to hold out for more.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"No, Iran is not yet \u201canother Vietnam.\u201d There are no U.S. ground forces taking unsustainable casualties, no headlines…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":602215,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,801,211919,3,21,19,22,20,25,24,1139],"class_list":["post-602214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-iran","tag-iran-u-s","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=602214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/602215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=602214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=602214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=602214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}