IRANCeasefire will be indefinite, Trump says, but experts say it could be months before Hormuz reopens<\/p>\n
President Trump confirmed there was no deadline<\/a> for ending the current ceasefire with Iran. The White House is waiting for a response from Iran before the next round of peace talks can start, Bloomberg says<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Strait of Hormuz remains closed: Iran struck three ships yesterday and seized two of them, according to the BBC<\/a>. The U.S. said it had forced 31 ships back into the Gulf since its blockade began. There\u2019s a 40% chance of recession in the U.S., Daco says<\/p>\n In a pessimistic email this morning, EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco put the odds of recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months at 40%. His logic: \u201cThe Middle East conflict is proving longer lasting and more destructive to energy production capacity,\u201d he said in the note. \u201cConcerns center on a slowing labor market, rising stress in private credit, and uncertainty around the pace and scale of AI-driven labor displacement. Taken together, we continue to assess U.S. recession odds over the next 12 months at around 40%.\u201d Assuming that doesn\u2019t happen, Daco estimates 1.8% growth in U.S. GDP for the year.<\/p>\n THE SPORTS PAGEHow Iran could face the USA in the World Cup<\/p>\n White House special envoy Paolo Zampolli caused global headlines after he confirmed that he asked Fifa to replace Iran with Italy<\/a> in the upcoming World Cup, a move that is surely against the rules of the tournament and will likely never happen. <\/p>\n However, a greater potential drama awaits the U.S. men\u2019s national team on July 3, the eve of Independence Day. That is when the second-place team from Group D plays the second-place team from Group G in the knockout stage of the cup.\u00a0<\/p>\n You guessed it, USA is in Group D and Iran is in Group G<\/a>. It is possible that both teams could survive the group stage and thus be drawn against each other for Match 95 of the contest. In Iran\u2019s group, they face New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt. The latter two would be expected to graduate first and second place, into the knockout stage. But all Iran (seeded 21st<\/a>) needs to do is beat New Zealand (seeded 85th) and maybe hold the other two to a draw and it could find itself in that July 3 face-off. The USA is seeded 16th and playing on home turf. It faces Paraguay (40th), Australia (27th), and Turkey (22nd), and thus ought to emerge top of the group. But the USA has a patchy record at the World Cup, and it\u2019s plausible that it will drop points in the group stage and thus find itself in that July 3 playoff. If the USA v. Iran match occurs, the Americans will be the natural favorites. No pressure, guys!<\/p>\n MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n How Spirit Airlines\u2019 business model collapsed\u2014and why a Trump bailout could make things worse<\/a> – Shawn Tully<\/p>\n Best Buy CEO Corie Barry is stepping down: How she went from architect of a comeback to cautionary tale<\/a> – Phil Wahba<\/p>\n The starter home is dying. Better.com\u2019s CEO says AI is the only thing that can save it<\/a> – Jake Angelo<\/p>\n \u2018I think it\u2019s a mistake\u2019: Delta CEO Ed Bastian refuses to call it \u2018artificial intelligence\u2019 because it scares people<\/a> – Nick Lichtenberg<\/p>\n The Strait of Hormuz chaos is just a \u2018dry run\u2019 for if war breaks out between the U.S. and China, Singapore foreign minister says<\/a> – Sasha Rogelberg<\/p>\n Cursor\u2019s 25-year-old CEO is a former Google intern who just inked a $60 billion deal with SpaceX<\/a> – Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez<\/p>\n CHART OF THE DAYThe more people use AI, the more they trust it<\/p>\n U.S. consumers \u201care increasingly suspicious of AI and lag way behind their Indian, UAE, Chinese and Saudi counterparts in adoption,\u201d according to this chart from Deutsche Bank, which pits AI adoption vs. AI trust. Only 52% of Americans say they use AI on a regular basis at work, whereas 90% use it regularly in some Asian markets. If AI is \u201can existential race for dominance,\u201d as some tech leaders and politicians insist, then the U.S. is already lagging, Deutsche argues. \u201cMass adoption is where the battle will be won and lost.\u201d<\/p>\n NUMBER OF THE DAY22%<\/p>\n The year-on-year growth in second-hand fashion transactions in March, according to Bank of America. Buying and selling used clothes peaked during the COVID pandemic, when sales and transactions grew at over 80% annual growth. After going through a trough, the resale apparel sector is coming back, especially for luxury goods. \u201cConsumers are turning to resale more often to stretch their budgets,\u201d analysts Liz Everett Krisberg and David Michael Tinsley said in a recent research note.<\/p>\n THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n \u2018We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history,\u2019 IEA chief says<\/a> – CNBC<\/p>\n Anthropic: No “kill switch” for AI in classified settings<\/a> – Axios<\/p>\n Republicans Are Worried the Redistricting Fight Is Backfiring<\/a> – WSJ<\/p>\n Alex Cooper, Husband Skip Team Meeting After Behavior Complaints<\/a> – Bloomberg<\/p>\n A 60-Day Deadline Could Pressure Trump on Ending the Iran War<\/a> – NYT<\/p>\n
\nNormalcy will not return soon. It will take six months to clear the strait of Iranian mines, the Washington Post says<\/a>, and that operation can only start after the end of the conflict.
\nDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired Navy Secretary John Phelan yesterday, the latest in a series of exits by high-ranking Pentagon officials. Here is the key sentence from Axios\u2019s report<\/a>: \u201cHegseth felt Phelan had bypassed the chain of command too much with a direct line to Trump, whose Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach is near Phelan’s mansion, [a] source familiar with the situation said.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image001.png\"\/)
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