When the Los Angeles Rams drafted Ty Simpson on Thursday, one of the criticisms of the pick was that \u201cnext year\u2019s quarterback class is better\u201d with an expectation that players like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Brendan Sorsby, Julian Sayin, C.J. Carr, LaNorris and others will headline a 2027 draft for the ages.<\/p>\n
However, this was also used as a reason not to draft quarterbacks in 2025 when Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart were the only first round picks because \u201cnext year\u2019s class will be so much better\u201d, which not coincidentally also included Manning and Sellers.<\/p>\n
Field Yates, who I think got the job as ESPN\u2019s lead draft analyst by filling out an online application, mocked six quarterbacks in the top-16 of his \u201cway too early\u201d 2026 mock draft from last year<\/a>:<\/p>\n Yates had Manning and Sellers going 1-2, Cade Klubnik going third, Sam Leavitt going ninth, Drew Allar going 11th, and Garrett Nussmeier going 16th.<\/p>\n Well, Manning fanatics (Manatics?) insist that he was always going to return to school in 2026, which is a really easy claim to make after Arch had such a disappointing debut season as Texas\u2019s starter. This hasn\u2019t deterred analysts from once again projecting Arch Manning as the first overall pick in next year\u2019s draft.<\/p>\n Sellers was projected as a top-3 quarterback in the 2026 class but also opted to return to school, which probably wasn\u2019t that hard of a decision given that his touchdown total fell from an already-low 18 to 13. In two years as South Carolina\u2019s starter, Sellers has only thrown 596 pass attempts and his stats are extremely underwhelming<\/a> for a \u201cprojected first round pick\u201d. If Sellers had the season people were expecting a year ago, going back to college in 2026 feels like an absurd claim.<\/p>\n Klubnik went to the Jets in the 4th roundLeavitt hurt his foot, played poorly for Arizona State, and transferred to LSU this yearAllar was drafted by the Steelers in the 3rd roundNussmeier was drafted by the Chiefs in the 7th round<\/p>\n So out of Field Yates\u2019s six projected top-16 picks at the QB position, three did not enter the draft and three were drafted between rounds 3-7.<\/p>\n A mock draft at CBS Sports was only marginally more accurate because it included Fernando Mendoza.<\/p>\n A 2026 mock draft by Ryan Wilson last June predicted 5 first round quarterbacks<\/a>, not including Arch Manning:<\/p>\n Garrett Nussmeier went 1st overallDrew Allar went 8thFernando Mendoza went 18thCade Klubnik went 27th (to the Rams)LaNorris Sellers went 32nd<\/p>\n So out of these five first round quarterbacks, one went first (which is a pretty impressive guess by Wilson given how mediocre Mendoza was at Cal) and the other five I already mentioned. He would have had Arch at number one if he didn\u2019t think he was going back to Texas in 2026.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not like it was only a few people who felt that the 2026 QB class was \u201ctoo good not to wait for\u201d either.<\/p>\n Right before training camp, ESPN\u2019s Matt Miller projected Klubnik<\/a> as the first pick:<\/p>\n \u201cKlubnik enters the season as my No. 1 QB. In 2024, he threw for 3,639 yards, 36 touchdowns and six interceptions, highlighted by a gutsy performance against Texas<\/a> in the College Football Playoff (336 passing yards, three TDs, one INT). Klubnik reminds me of Baker Mayfield<\/a> — whom Cleveland selected with the No. 1 pick in 2018 — in terms of arm strength, mobility and playmaking awareness.\u201c<\/p>\n And Nussmeier as the 12th pick:<\/p>\n \u201cNussmeier showed flashes in his first season as a starter, throwing for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, Garrett plays with fire and energy and isn\u2019t afraid to take chances. If he cuts down on his interceptions, Nussmeier has the velocity, accuracy and playmaking ability to move up draft boards.\u201d<\/p>\n These turned out to be day three picks. Nussmeier is barely in the NFL. Even if you think that\u2019s partly related to injury (and that\u2019s an excuse, let\u2019s be honest) it\u2019s still due to something. That\u2019s all that matters.<\/p>\n For Allar, Miller\u2019s suggestion that \u201cHis development in 2024, in which he increased his completion percentage from 59.9% to 66.5%, is encouraging and suggests that more improvement is on the way.\u201d proved not to be true. He regressed, a lot, he did not improve.<\/p>\n The premise that the Rams should not have drafted Ty Simpson MIGHT hold water, but it has nothing to do with \u201cwait until next year\u201d.<\/p>\n Go back another year and look at 2025 mock drafts from 2024:<\/p>\n Bleacher Report\u2019s \u201cway too early\u201d 2025 mock draft had<\/a>:<\/p>\n Carson Beck going 1st overallShedeur Sanders going 4th overallJalen Milroe going 7th overallWill Howard going 21st overall<\/p>\n Beck didn\u2019t enter the draft because he wasn\u2019t good enough. He transferred to Miami and this year he was drafted in the third round by the Cardinals.<\/p>\n Sanders was a fifth round pick. Milroe was a third round pick. Howard was a sixth round pick.<\/p>\n