Seagulls settle on poles as boats navigate the sea on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n
Asghar Besharati | Getty Images<\/p>\n
U.S. Treasury yields moved higher Monday as investors weighed the implications of more costly energy prices<\/a> as a result of the Iran war and awaited the latest updates on the state of the domestic job market later this week.<\/p>\n The 2-year Treasury<\/a> yield moved up 3.3 basis points to 3.921% while the benchmark 10-year note<\/a> moved up 2.8 basis points to 4.406%.<\/p>\n One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.<\/p>\n Fixed income yields rose following conflicting claims out of the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil flowed before the war began in late February.<\/p>\n Iranian state media claimed the Islamic Republic hit a U.S. warship in the area, but the U.S. Central Command later denied the report<\/a>. Stock market futures slipped off, but were off their lows, while oil prices climbed but remained below earlier highs.<\/p>\n Bond traders are also awaiting data later in this week that will provide more clues on the muddy U.S. jobs picture.<\/p>\n April nonfarm payrolls are set for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a gain of just 53,000 following the 178,000 jobs added in March. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.<\/p>\n Markets have been weighing how the Federal Reserve will react to an economic picture that includes inflation staying above the central bank’s 2% target for several years, and mixed messages as to the state of U.S. employment. <\/p>\n The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee next meets June 16-17, and interest rate futures traders are nearly unanimous in pricing in no change to the Fed’s 3.50% to 3.75% overnight fed funds rate, based on the CME Group’s Fedwatch<\/a> tool. Last week’s final FOMC meeting under outgoing chair Jerome Powell, as well as subsequent statements from three officials, expressed misgivings<\/a> about the direction of monetary policy.<\/p>\n Regional presidents Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, Lorie Logan of Dallas and Beth Hammack of Cleveland all indicated that they objected to an apparent easing bias expressed in the committee’s post-meeting statement. Kashkari said Sunday in an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that he could actually see a rate increase as the next policy move, in the worst-case scenario \u2014 if inflation holds at elevated levels.<\/p>\n