{"id":62879,"date":"2025-08-06T15:27:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T15:27:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/62879\/"},"modified":"2025-08-06T15:27:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T15:27:13","slug":"how-will-the-united-states-democracy-recover-after-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/62879\/","title":{"rendered":"How Will the United States’ Democracy Recover After Trump?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many Americans, worried about what has become of their democracy under U.S. President Donald Trump, are beginning to wonder whether and how it can recover<\/a> once he leaves office. While it is too early to know what the political landscape will look like in 2028 and beyond, the United States can already learn from the experiences of other countries that have attempted democratic recovery. Recent developments in Poland and Brazil are illuminating\u2014though sobering\u2014in this regard.<\/p>\n

In Poland\u2019s presidential election earlier this year, conservative politician Karol Nawrocki<\/a> narrowly defeated liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski. Nawrocki\u2019s campaign was backed by Law and Justice\u2014the party that spearheaded the erosion of Poland\u2019s democratic institutions and norms after coming to power in 2015. To many, the 2023 electoral defeat of Law and Justice and the emergence of a solidly pro-democratic prime minister, Donald Tusk, appeared to signal a positive turning point for Polish democracy. But Nawrocki\u2019s victory has highlighted the enduring popularity and influence of illiberal forces within the country.<\/p>\n

Many Americans, worried about what has become of their democracy under U.S. President Donald Trump, are beginning to wonder whether and how it can recover<\/a> once he leaves office. While it is too early to know what the political landscape will look like in 2028 and beyond, the United States can already learn from the experiences of other countries that have attempted democratic recovery. Recent developments in Poland and Brazil are illuminating\u2014though sobering\u2014in this regard.<\/p>\n

In Poland\u2019s presidential election earlier this year, conservative politician Karol Nawrocki<\/a> narrowly defeated liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski. Nawrocki\u2019s campaign was backed by Law and Justice\u2014the party that spearheaded the erosion of Poland\u2019s democratic institutions and norms after coming to power in 2015. To many, the 2023 electoral defeat of Law and Justice and the emergence of a solidly pro-democratic prime minister, Donald Tusk, appeared to signal a positive turning point for Polish democracy. But Nawrocki\u2019s victory has highlighted the enduring popularity and influence of illiberal forces within the country.<\/p>\n

Similarly, recent events in Brazil have shown that President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019s 2022 electoral victory over Jair Bolsonaro has not brought about the one-and-done democratic recovery many might have hoped for. In February of this year, Bolsonaro\u2019s supporters mobilized in the tens of thousands<\/a> to protest his indictment for orchestrating a coup attempt at the end of his presidency. Bolsonaro has publicly insisted<\/a> that he will run in Brazil\u2019s 2026 presidential election, despite being barred from office until 2030 for his false claims about voter fraud. The Supreme Court on Monday ordered him held under house arrest<\/a> while on trial for the alleged coup attempt in 2023, but it\u2019s clear that the forces and sentiments that propelled the illiberal strongman to office remain powerful today.<\/p>\n

Taken together, these cases provide three valuable lessons for the United States as it prepares for an eventual post-Trump era.<\/p>\n

1. The Limitations of Pro-Democracy Coalitions<\/p>\n

First, transforming pro-democracy electoral coalitions into effective political leadership is difficult.<\/p>\n

In Poland\u2019s 2023 parliamentary elections, multiple coalitions comprised of parties spanning the center-left through the center-right\u2014including the Civic Coalition, the Third Way coalition, and the Left coalition\u2014banded together to oust Law and Justice. Together, this opposition won 54 percent<\/a> of the vote and successfully formed the current Tusk-led government.<\/p>\n

But maintaining a united front has proved challenging, particularly on ideologically charged issues. For example, last year, a measure put forward by the ruling coalition to soften abortion laws failed<\/a> after parties within the coalition clashed, with one voting against it. This year\u2019s presidential election further shook the coalition: Members blamed Tusk<\/a> for mismanaging Trzaskowski\u2019s campaign, and the Third Way coalition split up<\/a> to run independently in future elections after its centrist platform performed poorly in the vote.<\/p>\n

For Brazil\u2019s 2022 election campaign, Lula formed a broad, anti-Bolsonaro unity coalition<\/a> of politicians from across the political spectrum and selected a center-right politician, Geraldo Alckmin, as his running mate. While this coalition successfully brought Lula to power, it has proved less effective as a governing coalition, with parties that supported Lula\u2019s ascent now disagreeing with him on various policy issues and feeling frustrated by Lula\u2019s prioritization of his own Workers\u2019 Party. This has translated into the lowest level of legislative support<\/a> from congressional allies for a Brazilian president since 1995, stymying Lula\u2019s policymaking agenda.<\/p>\n

In both cases, these pro-democracy coalitions lacked a strong shared political agenda beyond their opposition to the incumbent. Once in power, new leadership quickly found itself hamstrung by these very groupings in its efforts to craft and enact promised policies.<\/p>\n

2. The Challenge of Delivering to the Public<\/p>\n

These cases also show how difficult it can be for leaders to balance restoring democratic processes and institutions with meeting citizens\u2019 more immediate needs and demands.<\/p>\n

In Poland, Tusk\u2019s government focused much of its early energy on the task of unwinding Law and Justice\u2019s anti-democratic grip<\/a> on various institutions, such as the public media and the judiciary. This re-democratizing push, while certainly understandable, has come at the expense of other political priorities.<\/p>\n

Tusk\u2019s government has faced significant criticism<\/a> for failing to implement its campaign promises on progressive policy issues, including abortion and women\u2019s rights. At the same time, the government has done little to endear itself to Polish citizens who fall outside of Tusk\u2019s traditional base<\/a>\u2014including rural communities, low-educated voters, or young men. And across the political spectrum, there is a growing weariness<\/a> with the government\u2019s focus on holding its Law and Justice predecessors accountable at the expense of future-oriented issues.<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Donald<\/p>\n

Donald Trump wears a red hat and points his finger.<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\n Donald Trump wears a red hat and points his finger.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Actually, Trump Has a Coherent Vision
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

\n \tWhat seems like chaos is in fact a unified plan to reshape the United States. \t <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A woodcut style illustration depicts five U.S. presidents, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Nixon, Bush, and Trump<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\n A woodcut style illustration depicts five U.S. presidents, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Nixon, Bush, and Trump<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Is Trump\u2019s Use of Executive Power Really So Different?
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

\n \tPresidents of both parties have relied on expansive authority to achieve their goals. \t <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"U.S.<\/p>\n

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts during Trump\u2019s inauguration in Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\n U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts during Trump\u2019s inauguration in Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The U.S. Judicial Crisis Is Uniquely Dangerous
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

\n \tBut other democracies provide a roadmap for courts to prevail over attacks from the executive branch. \t <\/p>\n

In Brazil, similarly, Lula\u2019s mixed record on socioeconomic issues has come to define his presidency.<\/p>\n

Early into his tenure, a positive turn in Brazil\u2019s economy served Lula well. His promise to bring back the prosperity of his previous presidency seemed tenable, and he expanded the social programs that he had previously championed. But while Brazil\u2019s economy remains in relatively good shape, Lula has been unable to provide the economic opportunities the country\u2019s large working class anticipated. And as concerns grow around rising inflation, crime, and socioeconomic ills, Brazilians are growing increasingly dissatisfied<\/a> with his leadership.<\/p>\n

The result is a vicious cycle. Public concerns about democratic slippage drive new leaders into power. But when these leaders fail to deliver on core economic and policy promises, voters and political allies are quick to turn on them\u2014eroding their legislative power or electoral support\u2014which in turn weakens their efforts to restore democracy.<\/p>\n

3. The Persistence of Toxic Polarization<\/p>\n

A third lesson concerns the difficulty of reducing political polarization, which, in both Poland and Brazil, illiberal leaders have fueled by spreading conspiracy theories and stoking partisan antagonisms. Though no longer in power, these leaders continue to sow divisions, making it difficult for new leadership to restore democratic norms once rooted in political tolerance and moderation.<\/p>\n

In Poland, for example, polarization surrounding the judicial system\u2014which Law and Justice fostered while in power\u2014has complicated<\/a> the Tusk government\u2019s attempts to restore the independence of the courts and other institutions. More broadly, Law and Justice has spread polarizing narratives about almost every reform measure that the new government has sought to advance. This year\u2019s presidential election was plagued by political polarization<\/a> as well\u2014reflected in low public trust in institutions, extreme media bias, and inflammatory messaging by politicians.<\/p>\n

The same goes for Brazil, where Bolsonaro and his followers continue to spread extremist narratives regarding the Brazilian judiciary, Lula\u2019s integrity, and political life generally. Even though national elections are still a year away, the atmosphere of toxic polarization is already choking Brazil\u2019s daily political life, distorting debates over accountability and rule of law.<\/p>\n

In the United States, the story is not much different from the one in Brazil and Poland.<\/p>\n

President Joe Biden came to office in 2021 determined to repair the damage to democracy inflicted by Trump during his first term. Yet he struggled to prevent defections from his broad anti-Trump coalition, especially among Black and Hispanic voters. And while the administration did make progress in terms of democratic recovery, its economic record had greater impact on the outcome of the 2024 election. Moreover, despite Biden\u2019s efforts to lower the temperature of day-to-day politics, toxic polarization only swelled during his presidency.<\/p>\n

Avoiding these pitfalls will not be easy for leaders who hope to rebuild U.S. democracy once Trump leaves the political stage. Understanding how their counterparts abroad navigated similar situations\u2014and where they went wrong\u2014would be a good start.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Many Americans, worried about what has become of their democracy under U.S. President Donald Trump, are beginning to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62880,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,941,8649,12,1070,40637,3,5332,111,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":{"0":"post-62879","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-states","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-brazil","10":"tag-democracy","11":"tag-donald-trump","12":"tag-elections","13":"tag-homepage_regional_americas","14":"tag-news","15":"tag-poland","16":"tag-politics","17":"tag-united-states","18":"tag-united-states-of-america","19":"tag-unitedstates","20":"tag-unitedstatesofamerica","21":"tag-us","22":"tag-usa"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62879\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62880"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}