Today\u2019s notice: Thomas Massie is in trouble. Democrats who didn\u2019t get the party nod say they\u2019re doing just fine. An exclusive preview of what Oversight in a Democratic House could look like. How Mike Johnson spent recess. Capitol Gains does Vermont. The decline of Congress\u2019 rules. And: Will the real MAHA party please stand up?<\/p>\n
THE LATEST<\/p>\n
Critical: Massie. This week, Republican state lawmakers in Indiana who crossed Donald Trump on redistricting were sent packing by primary voters. Just across the state\u2019s border with Kentucky, it\u2019s looking like they might send home the Republican who most vocally crossed Trump on the Epstein files, too. NOTUS\u2019 Alex Roarty reports<\/a> on the vibes in Rep. Thomas Massie\u2019s district, where an expensive primary against the iconoclastic incumbent ends in 11 days.<\/p>\n MAGA is gaining ground. \u201cI think that the people who watch TV are seeing the ads, seeing the money spent, and they\u2019re buying into it,\u201d Republican state Rep. Steve Doan, a Massie supporter, said. He told Alex he thinks Massie will still win, but the race has \u201cnarrowed\u201d palpably.<\/p>\n Doan told Alex about a recent conversation with one voter who asked whether Massie was actually having a three-way affair with Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as was falsely suggested in a recent satirical ad created using AI.<\/p>\n Where things stand: After conversations with Massie backers, supporters of MAGA-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein and neutral Republicans in the district, Alex reports that it appears Massie still has a small edge. But Gallrein backers are feeling momentum and Massie\u2019s are hunkering down.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s going to be the closest race that Thomas has faced,\u201d Rich Hidy, the chair of the Campbell County Republican Party who\u2019s unaligned in the primary, told Alex.<\/p>\n Open tabs: Federal Trade Court Blocks Trump\u2019s Backup Tariff Plan<\/a> (NOTUS); U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump\u2019s Hormuz blockade for months<\/a> (WaPo); Federal and State Officials Discuss Closing Florida\u2019s \u2018Alligator Alcatraz\u2019<\/a> (NYT); How the Commanders returned to D.C.: The wild, unlikely saga of a years-long journey home<\/a> (The Athletic)<\/p>\n From the White House<\/p>\n \u201cLove tap\u201d is what Trump called fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian soil in an interview with ABC News yesterday<\/a>, after Iran fired at American ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The president insists the ceasefire is still in place, despite the sustained hostilities. \u201cThey trifled with us today. We blew them away,\u201d he said during a visit with construction workers on the National Mall last night. \u201cThey trifled. I call that a trifle.\u201d<\/p>\n What\u2019s next: More of the same? A deal with Iran \u201cmight not happen, but it could happen any day,\u201d Trump said.<\/p>\n From the campaign trail<\/p>\n Silver linings? \u201cIt\u2019s almost a badge of honor that D.C. has let us know who their candidate is, who they believe will bend the knee to party leadership and to corporate interests,\u201d Randy Villegas, one of the Democratic House primary candidates not endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this week, told NOTUS\u2019 Christa Dutton<\/a>. Candidates like him hope this is the year that insisting I\u2019m actually really glad the party didn\u2019t back me is a winning message.<\/p>\n They may not be wrong. \u201cPeople make that claim in other cycles, but I think it has a better chance of working this time than other times,\u201d Democratic pollster Adam Carlson said. For its part, a source familiar with the DCCC\u2019s reasoning said the organization picked the candidates it thought could win.<\/p>\n Corruption is emerging as a general election topic. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is out with a new video<\/a> claiming epic levels of fiscal responsibility, but not everyone\u2019s buying it.<\/p>\n Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, took aim at Donald Trump Jr.\u2019s and Eric Trump\u2019s ties to the defense industry and called for the Pentagon inspector general to probe the first family, per a new letter obtained exclusively by NOTUS\u2019 Joe Gould<\/a>.<\/p>\n The claim: Since the start of the president\u2019s second term, his adult kids \u201chave started conspicuously involving themselves in a variety of defense-related contracting firms,\u201d Garcia wrote. The lawmaker cited a new contract awarded to drone company Powerus after both sons invested in the firm and a $24 million award to Foundation Future Industries, where Eric Trump \u2014 a hospitality-industry executive \u2014 serves as chief strategy adviser.<\/p>\n What comes next: It all dovetails with how Democrats, heading into the midterms, are painting the president as corrupt and self-interested, NOTUS\u2019 Igor Bobic reports<\/a>. But Garcia\u2019s letter also serves as a promise of the aggressive oversight Democrats could pursue if voters give them the House majority. They\u2019re also eyeing an investigation into potential \u201cpay-for-play dealings\u201d related to the president\u2019s pardons, NOTUS\u2019 Torrie Herrington reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile: Republicans stack cash for the general. Speaker Mike Johnson wraps up a fundraising blitz in Texas today, NOTUS\u2019 Kadia Goba reports. He\u2019s been raising money with a number of incumbents and new candidates he hopes to add to the state\u2019s congressional delegation.<\/p>\n THE BIG ONE<\/p>\n MAHA and the Democrats, an unexplored B-plot of 2026: For the most part, the party leaves the political movement championed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. alone. But should it? The focus on improving health care and regulating corporate power is a Venn diagram waiting for some Democratic shading, Rep. Chellie Pingree told NOTUS\u2019 Paige Winfield Cunningham<\/a>. She\u2019s among a few in her party who say Democrats should see recent disillusionment among the Make America Healthy Again set with Trump and the GOP as an opportunity.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not that simple, of course. Democrats do not like or want to stand with RFK Jr. after 2024. Vaccine skepticism \u2014 the best-known aspect of MAHA \u2014 is anathema to most of them, too.<\/p>\n MAHA isn\u2019t too thrilled with Democrats, either. Moms Across America founder and MAHA leader Zen Honeycutt has met with people like Pingree, but \u2026 \u201cI would like to see Democrats set aside their ire of Kennedy,\u201d she told Paige.<\/p>\n Why this is not a crazy idea: A recent KFF poll found voters who identify as MAHA supporters were more likely to say lowering health care costs was their top concern \u2014 more than improving food safety or any other issue. The Democratic midterm ad practically writes itself.<\/p>\n Why it is crazy: The vaccine thing! And an accepted political reality: Whether they planned to or not, MAHA leaders run a branch of the GOP now. At least that\u2019s how Democrats see it. \u201cI think they\u2019re afraid to engage with it and skeptical they can actually win over these voters,\u201d Ayodele Okeowo, a former Biden administration official who now does strategy for several MAHA-affiliated groups, told Paige.<\/p>\n ON NOTUS PODCAST<\/p>\n From your favorite podcast app: Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the DCCC, says Democrats will respond to Republican efforts to \u201crig the system\u201d through mid-decade redistricting. \u201cWe are going to fight back in the courts. We\u2019re obviously fighting back in statehouses, and we absolutely are fighting back on the ground, and people are fighting back with their vote,\u201d DelBene told NOTUS\u2019 Daniella Diaz on today\u2019s episode of On NOTUS<\/a>. DelBene also talked about the party\u2019s midterm strategy and top priorities if they win the majority in the House.<\/p>\n NEW ON NOTUS<\/p>\n The House\u2019s new normal is really new. Think about this: From 1995 until early 2023, only eight rules votes got rejected, including 20 straight years without one failing, NOTUS\u2019 Paul Kane writes<\/a>. Over the same period, only three discharge petitions succeeded. But in the last three years, House leaders have lost the rules vote 11 times and seven discharge petitions have forced votes against leadership\u2019s wishes.<\/p>\n Leaders seem to no longer have the tools to enforce discipline, Paul writes, which has made the present Congress quite strange. And, if anything, Congress is likely to get weirder over the next few years \u2014 the redistricting-palooza puts more emphasis on extremists and less on the kind of traditional legislator who relied on long-held norms to make tough compromises happen.<\/p>\n Vermont rich: Members of the state\u2019s congressional delegation are significantly more wealthy than the average Vermonter, NOTUS\u2019 Torrie Herrington and Taylor Giorno report<\/a>. That does not make it all that different from most state delegations, but one thing does: Democratic Sens. Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch, as well as the lone House member, Democrat Becca Balint, do not trade individual stocks. (Welch used to when he had Balint\u2019s job, but stopped.)<\/p>\n The analysis is the latest in NOTUS\u2019 Capitol Gains<\/a> project examining congressional wealth.<\/p>\n More: Tennessee Democrats Warn Their State\u2019s Redistricting Is Just the Start<\/a>, by Manuela Silva<\/p>\n NOT US<\/p>\n Thank you for reading! If you liked this edition of the NOTUS newsletter, please forward it to a friend. If this newsletter was shared with you, please subscribe<\/a> \u2014 it\u2019s free! Have a tip? Email us at tips@notus.com<\/a>. And as always, we\u2019d love to hear your thoughts at newsletters@notus.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s notice: Thomas Massie is in trouble. 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