The World Cup is almost here. Of the 48 teams, 32 will advance from the opening group stage to the knockout stage \u2014 a single-elimination bracket of matches to be played in 15 stadiums across North America.<\/p>\n
But where, exactly, could your team play after surviving the group?<\/p>\n
If the United States wins its group, for example, it will play its first elimination match in Santa Clara, Calif. If it finishes second, it will head to Arlington, Texas. But if it finishes third, it could play in Boston, New York or Kansas City, Mo. \u2014 or not at all, depending on how teams finish in other groups.<\/p>\n
So where a team plays its knockout games depends on its three matches<\/a> in the group stage, which begins June 11. To estimate each team\u2019s chances of getting out of its group, we used data from sportsbooks and prediction markets to measure team strength:<\/p>\n Each team\u2019s chance of advancing to the knockout stage <\/p>\n Group A Mexico Mexico89% Czech Republic Czech Rep.75% South Korea S. Korea69% South Africa S. Africa39%Group B Switzerland Switzerland92% Canada Canada82% Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia76% Qatar Qatar24%Group C Brazil Brazil99% Morocco Morocco85% Scotland Scotland65% Haiti Haiti15%Group D United States U.S.86% Turkey Turkey80% Paraguay Paraguay68% Australia Australia39%Group E Germany Germany97% Ecuador Ecuador83% Ivory Coast Ivory Coast74% Cura\u00e7ao Cura\u00e7ao15%Group F Netherlands Netherlands91% Japan Japan77% Sweden Sweden66% Tunisia Tunisia37%Group G Belgium Belgium96% Egypt Egypt74% Iran Iran65% New Zealand New Zealand32%Group H Spain Spain99% Uruguay Uruguay85% Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia49% Cape Verde Cape Verde24%Group I France France97% Norway Norway85% Senegal Senegal63% Iraq Iraq21%Group J Argentina Argentina98% Austria Austria80% Algeria Algeria65% Jordan Jordan23%Group K Portugal Portugal97% Colombia Colombia88% Democratic Republic of Congo D.R. Congo45% Uzbekistan Uzbekistan30%Group L England England97% Croatia Croatia79% Ghana Ghana55% Panama Panama32% <\/p>\n + Show all<\/p>\n We then simulated the tournament hundreds of thousands of times and counted up the number of times each team played at a given site.<\/p>\n The odds could shift drastically as the tournament progresses, so make travel plans at your own risk. Eight third-place teams will make the knockout stage, which could easily add some late chaos \u2014 an extra-time goal in the final group game could change a team\u2019s destination by 3,000 miles.<\/p>\n You can use the tables below to look up probabilities for any team<\/a> or any of the 15 cities<\/a> where elimination matches will be held. We\u2019ll update this page with the latest odds regularly until the group stage begins.<\/p>\n Every possible location for the United States AlgeriaArgentinaAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBrazilCanadaCape VerdeColombiaCroatiaCura\u00e7aothe Czech Republicthe Democratic Republic of CongoEcuadorEgyptEnglandFranceGermanyGhanaHaitiIranIraqthe Ivory CoastJapanJordanMexicoMoroccothe NetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPanamaParaguayPortugalQatarSaudi ArabiaScotlandSenegalSouth AfricaSouth KoreaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTunisiaTurkeythe United StatesUruguayUzbekistan<\/p>\n Round of 32 Boston (June 29) Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.10%New York (June 30) MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.4%Bay Area (July 1) Levi\u2019s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.42%Kansas City, Mo. (July 3) Arrowhead Stadium1%Dallas (July 3) AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas29%Round of 16 Philadelphia (July 4) Lincoln Financial Field6%Seattle (July 6) Lumen Field24%Atlanta (July 7) Mercedes-Benz Stadium17%Vancouver, B.C. (July 7) BC Place<1%Quarterfinals Boston (July 9) Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.2%Los Angeles (July 10) SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.13%Kansas City, Mo. (July 11) Arrowhead Stadium7%Semifinals Dallas (July 14) AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas6%Atlanta (July 15) Mercedes-Benz Stadium3%Third-place match Miami (July 18) Hard Rock Stadium5%Final New York (July 19) MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.4% <\/p>\n Each team\u2019s chance of playing in New York AtlantaBostonDallasHoustonKansas City, Mo. Los AngelesMexico CityMiamiMonterrey, MexicoNew YorkPhiladelphiaSeattlethe Bay AreaTorontoVancouver, B.C.<\/p>\n MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.<\/p>\n Rnd. of 32 June 30Rnd. of 16 July 5Final July 19 France France65%18%23% Norway Norway24%25%6% Sweden Sweden19%10%2% Japan Japan17%13%4% Tunisia Tunisia14%5%1% Netherlands Netherlands10%12%7% Senegal Senegal9%12%2% Paraguay Paraguay6%\u20142% Turkey Turkey5%\u20142% Iran Iran5%\u20141% Australia Australia4%\u20141% Egypt Egypt4%\u20141% United States U.S.4%\u20144% Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia3%\u20141% New Zealand New Zealand3%\u20141% Uruguay Uruguay2%\u20143% Cape Verde Cape Verde2%\u20141% Iraq Iraq2%3%1% Belgium Belgium1%\u20145% Spain Spain<1%\u201424% Scotland Scotland<1%3%1% Morocco Morocco<1%9%4% Haiti Haiti<1%<1%<1% Brazil Brazil<1%48%15% Germany Germany\u201413%11% England England\u2014\u201418% Ecuador Ecuador\u201416%2% Argentina Argentina\u2014\u201415% Portugal Portugal\u2014\u201413% Ivory Coast Ivory Coast\u201411%1% Colombia Colombia\u2014\u20144% Switzerland Switzerland\u2014\u20143% Mexico Mexico\u2014\u20143% Croatia Croatia\u2014\u20143% Cura\u00e7ao Cura\u00e7ao\u20142%<1% Austria Austria\u2014\u20142% Canada Canada\u2014\u20142% Czech Republic Czech Rep.\u2014\u20141% South Korea S. Korea\u2014\u20141% Algeria Algeria\u2014\u20141% Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia\u2014\u20141% Ghana Ghana\u2014\u20141% Democratic Republic of Congo D.R. Congo\u2014\u20141% Panama Panama\u2014\u20141% South Africa S. Africa\u2014\u20141% Qatar Qatar\u2014\u20141% Jordan Jordan\u2014\u20141% Uzbekistan Uzbekistan\u2014\u20141% <\/p>\n