{"id":637845,"date":"2026-05-12T04:11:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T04:11:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/637845\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T04:11:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T04:11:15","slug":"this-could-be-historic-year-for-el-nino-heres-what-it-means-for-ct","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/637845\/","title":{"rendered":"This could be historic year for El Ni\u00f1o. Here’s what it means for CT"},"content":{"rendered":"

AccuWeather<\/a> meteorologists say that it is increasingly likely<\/a> that a rare \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>\u201d may form over the eastern Pacific Ocean this month, bringing potentially a milder and drier year for much of the Northeast, increasing chances of drought and fire risk.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months, according to Tyler Roys, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. There have been 27 El Ni\u00f1os since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years. The last one, a mild El Ni\u00f1o, happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024.<\/p>\n

The latest probabilities from NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center<\/a> indicate a 61% chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing this spring into early summer and a 25% chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o by the end of the year. Roys said that AccuWeather forecasts suggest there is at least a 20% chance this El Ni\u00f1o could become a \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d one in which ocean surface temperatures are at least two degrees warmer than average. The last Super El Ni\u00f1o occurred in 2015-16, Roys said.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters near the Equator,\u201d Roys said. \u201cWhat we\u2019re looking for to declare a Super El Ni\u00f1o is water temperatures two degrees above the historical average. When you think about it, that doesn\u2019t seem like a lot, but when it comes to sea surface temperatures and historical averages, two degrees actually does happen to be a lot. We are anticipating that we will declare an El Ni\u00f1o later this month, and we may see a rare Super El Ni\u00f1o. The chance is higher this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

What to know about the predictions for a potentially record-breaking El Nino<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Roys said that while El Nino\u2019s are rare, Super El Nino\u2019s are even rarer. There have been only five documented since 1950, including 2015-16, 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73.<\/p>\n

The stronger the El Ni\u00f1o, the greater the possible impact on global weather patterns, Roys said. In the northern part of the United States, including the Northwest through the Rockies and into New England, a strong El Ni\u00f1o year could bring a more dry and milder winter season. But a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Southwest to Florida and the Southeast, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhere we see the biggest impact is on the tropics. It increases the frequency of wind bursts and that impacts tropical storms, depressions, and major hurricanes. El Ni\u00f1o weakens tropical trade winds that usually flow east-to-west and can reserve them, impacting global weather patterns,\u201d Roys said. \u201cIn the Atlantic, this often means more sinking air and stronger winds, which usually result in a more quiet hurricane season.\u201d<\/p>\n

Roys said is that in stronger El Ni\u00f1o years, the Atlantic rarely sees major hurricanes. Although, hurricanes are still possible, as several formed in the Atlantic basin in 2023-24 during the last El Ni\u00f1o year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe good side is we typically don\u2019t see a big impact on the Northeast until the fall and winter time,\u201d Roys said. \u201cWe start to see some impact of El Ni\u00f1o around the beginning of fall in September. During the winter months, there are usually less snow impacts and drier conditions. Perhaps some storms will be more mixed weather events with snow and rain. On average, winters tend to be more mild during strong El Ni\u00f1o years in the Northeast.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the East Coast may get spared from a busy hurricane season, the wildlife threat will continue to persist, Roys said. Nearly the entire state of Connecticut is already in abnormally dry conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor<\/a>. The state\u2019s wildfire risk remains moderate, according to the state\u2019s Forest Fire Danger Report<\/a>. But a strong El Ni\u00f1o year could mean dry conditions persist, even into the fall and winter months, creating hazardous fire conditions.<\/p>\n

During El Ni\u00f1o years, summers often become hotter and more humid in the north, with higher frequencies of heavy rain events. But Roys said that those rain events often are quick and not sustained over several days, meaning moisture may dry out. But the possibility for more intense thunderstorms is greater this summer.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are forecasting that dry conditions will likely continue to persist through the summer,\u201d Roys said. \u201cThere are many factors at play and not just El Ni\u00f1o. We don\u2019t see drought conditions quickly disappearing looking at our long range models. We do see some possibilities for intense thunderstorms forming but not sustained rainfall events. We are predicting a drier first half of the summer season, which could have impacts on wildfire activity.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now, leaves have not fully formed, meaning the sun is penetrating the forest floor. Dead leaves, twigs and brush make the forest ground potentially vulnerable to fires. That risk should lessen a bit once the trees have fully matured leaves,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Stephen Underwood can be reached at sunderwood@courant.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"AccuWeather meteorologists say that it is increasingly likely that a rare \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d may form over the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":637846,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[18838,20242,15861,15229,58629,192,983,154565,79,2986,275425,6322,112848,6399],"class_list":["post-637845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-accuweather","tag-connecticut-news","tag-ct-news","tag-drought","tag-el-nino","tag-environment","tag-local-news","tag-meteorologist","tag-science","tag-weather","tag-weather-pattens","tag-wildfire","tag-wildfire-risk","tag-wildfires"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/637845","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=637845"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/637845\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/637846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=637845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=637845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=637845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}