{"id":638719,"date":"2026-05-12T14:54:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T14:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/638719\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T14:54:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T14:54:08","slug":"mlb-home-run-predictions-today-best-hr-prop-bets-picks-parlay-odds-for-tuesday-may-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/638719\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Tuesday, May 12"},"content":{"rendered":"

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Let’s go! We are back in the black for the first time this year after a +520 Julio Rodriguez<\/a> jack last night. The train has left the station, and it’s time to stack some home runs and MLB player props<\/a> with the weather turning in our favor.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

When Aaron Judge<\/a> is projecting +EV, he has to be added to the card early because the market is going to adjust quickly, and Andrew Vaughn<\/a> is being slept on by oddsmakers since returning from the IL.<\/p>\n

These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 12.<\/p>\n

Best MLB home run props today<\/p>\n

Player to hit a HR<\/p>\n

Odds<\/p>\n

Aaron Judge<\/p>\n

+310<\/p>\n

Andrew Vaughn<\/p>\n

+610<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+310)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s one of those days where the best hitter in baseball is projecting as +EV to go deep at +240 or better.<\/p>\n

Aaron Judge<\/a> sits right at the top of the home run prop projections at Covers today, and he\u2019ll either face a Baltimore Orioles<\/a> bullpen game or\u00a0Trevor Rogers<\/a> returning from the IL. Either scenario is bad news for the Orioles\u2019 relievers, who are likely going to have to cover plenty of innings.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

Only one bullpen has thrown more innings over the last two weeks than the\u00a0Orioles at 56, and they also own the ninth-worst ERA during that span at 4.66. Their co-closers, Rico Garcia<\/a> and Anthony Nunez<\/a>, have both pitched on back-to-back days and are likely unavailable today.<\/p>\n

Judge should also benefit from a 7-mph wind blowing out to left field, and Camden Yards still features some of the shortest dimensions in baseball down the lines.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: MASN, YES<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Andrew Vaughn (+610)<\/p>\n

Andrew Vaughn<\/a> has popped up on the projections at Covers for the first time, with a fair home run price around +480 today.<\/p>\n

American Family Field ranks as the sixth-best home run park for right-handed hitters, and Vaughn is into his sixth game since missing most of the season, so the rust appears gone. He\u2019s already homered, owns a .880 OPS, and his 35.3% BlastContact rate over the last 14 days ranks second in all of baseball, thanks to an absurd 47.1% SqUpContact rate.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

The right-handed bat also gets to attack knuckleballs today, with San Diego Padres<\/a> righty Matt Waldron<\/a> on the mound. Waldron\u2019s floater can disappear quickly, and after a strong outing last time out plus a road start here, a rough performance feels more likely than another good one for a pitcher carrying a 7.71 ERA.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV<\/p>\n

Josh Inglis’ 2026 Transparency Record<\/p>\n

HR picks: 13-67 +0.06 units<\/p>\n

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.<\/p>\n

This article originally appeared on Covers.com<\/a>, read the full article here<\/a> and view our best betting sites<\/a> or check out our top sportsbook promos<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. Let’s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":638720,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[4260,21298,255051,371,48328,217511,363,18703,2328,99,92892],"class_list":["post-638719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-aaron-judge","tag-andrew-vaughn","tag-anthony-nunez","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-julio-rodriguez","tag-matt-waldron","tag-mlb","tag-rico-garcia","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-sports","tag-trevor-rogers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/638719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=638719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/638719\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/638720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=638719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=638719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=638719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}