{"id":647374,"date":"2026-05-16T21:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T21:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/647374\/"},"modified":"2026-05-16T21:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T21:00:18","slug":"as-aukus-spending-and-delays-blow-out-will-australias-nuclear-submarines-ever-materialise-aukus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/647374\/","title":{"rendered":"As Aukus spending and delays blow out, will Australia\u2019s nuclear submarines ever materialise? | Aukus"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Australia\u2019s Aukus<\/a> spending blows out further, US submarine building falls years further behind: the strongest signal yet that America\u2019s promised Virginia-class submarines are increasingly unlikely to ever materialise under Australian command.<\/p>\n

This week the US navy admitted it would take until 2032 before it was building two Virginia-class boats a year \u2013 still below the rate needed to supply Australia.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s budget, released Tuesday, put an extra $400m towards the Aukus agreement over the next three years: the Australian Submarine Agency\u2019s total resourcing is now $2.13bn to the middle of 2029.<\/p>\n

In addition, Australia has sent A$2.76bn (US$2bn) to the US, and A$863m (\u00a3469m) to the UK, to boost their flagging submarine-building industrial bases.<\/p>\n

It remains a fraction of the total: to 2055, the Aukus deal is conservatively estimated to cost Australia $368bn.<\/p>\n

But the US Congress and navy, on which Australia will depend for its first nuclear-powered submarines \u2013 two second-hand Virginia-class attack submarines \u2013 continues to signal that it is not building enough submarines for its own fleet, let alone any to sell to Australia.<\/p>\n

Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n

Submarine building in the US has slowed dramatically over decades. It now takes US boatbuilders 10 years to build an attack submarine<\/a>. Twenty years ago, it was taking them six.<\/p>\n

For the past 15 years, the US navy has ordered Virginia-class submarines at a rate of two a year, but its shipyards have never met that build rate \u201cand since 2022 has been limited to about 1.1 to 1.2 boats per year, resulting in a growing backlog of boats procured but not yet built\u201d, the Congressional Research service says.<\/p>\n

As a result, the US Navy has only 49 of the 66 submarines it needs.<\/p>\n

Shipyards must build Virginia-class submarines at a rate of two a year to meet the US\u2019s own needs, and lift that to 2.33 boats a year to be able to supply submarines to Australia.<\/p>\n

Q&AWhat is Aukus pillar one?Show\"\"<\/p>\n

Pillar one of the Australia-UK-US (Aukus) agreement involves Australia being given the technology to command its own fleet of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines. There are two stages:<\/p>\n

\u2022 First, Australia will buy between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US, the first of these in 2032. But before any boat can be sold to Australia, the US commander-in-chief \u2013 the president of the day \u2013 must certify that the US relinquishing a submarine will not diminish its navy\u2019s undersea capability. The US submarine fleet now has only three-quarters of the submarines it needs (49 boats of a\u00a0force-level goal<\/a> of 66). And there are significant concerns the US cannot build enough submarines for its own needs, let alone any for Australia.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Second, by the \u201clate 2030s\u201d, according to the “optimal pathway” outlined in Australia\u2019s submarine industry strategy<\/a>, the UK will launch the first specifically designed and built Aukus submarine for Britain\u2019s Royal Navy.<\/p>\n

The first Australian-built Aukus submarine, for the Royal Australian Navy, will be in the water \u201cin the early 2040s\u201d. Australia will build up to eight Aukus boats, with the final vessels launched in the 2060s.<\/p>\n

Each of Australia\u2019s nuclear submarines is forecast to have a working life of about three decades. Australia will be responsible for securing and storing the nuclear waste from its submarines – including high-level nuclear waste and spent fuel (a weapons proliferation risk) – for thousands of years.<\/p>\n

Aukus is forecast to cost Australia up to A$368bn to the mid-2050s.<\/p>\n

Photograph: Colin Murty\/AFP<\/p>\n

Thank you for your feedback.<\/p>\n

The navy initially forecast<\/a> that it would reach that build rate \u2013 two Virginia-class boats a year \u2013 by 2026.<\/p>\n

Navy officials then forecast that date at 2028.<\/p>\n

Now it has been pushed further again: to 2032.<\/p>\n

Giving evidence before the House Appropriations Committee defense subcommittee this week, the chief of naval operations, Admiral Daryl Caudle, said: \u201cI would say we\u2019re going to be up on step with that [production rate] around 2032 based on the things we\u2019ve done \u2026 we should be up to two-per-year in the early 2030s.\u201d<\/p>\n

Caudle gave evidence he believed Aukus was progressing apace.<\/p>\n

\u201cI just got back from Perth, they\u2019re making their milestones<\/a>. There\u2019s a couple things they\u2019re behind on, I\u2019m frustrated with, that are part of the support system there \u2026 But all the production work there on the pier \u2026 they\u2019re making their marks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe integration of their sailors and officers and maintenance personnel at Pearl Harbor naval shipyard is fantastic. This is working and we want to support them and it is going to turn out really great when we get it delivered.\u201d<\/p>\n

But even if US boat-builders reached a production rate of two Virginia-class submarines a year, it would still be insufficient to contribute to Aukus \u2013 short of the 2.33 boats a year required to have sufficient submarines to sell even one to Australia.<\/p>\n

The US legislation governing Aukus states that the president of the US can only transfer a submarine to Australia if losing that submarine from US service \u201cwill not degrade<\/a> the United States undersea capabilities\u201d.<\/p>\n

There is further evidence of the structural challenges facing US shipbuilding, emerging from Washington, and from yards across the country.<\/p>\n

The US Navy\u2019s shipbuilding plan<\/a> \u2013 a detailed 30-year roadmap of all of the navy\u2019s planned vessels, released this month \u2013 does not account for building any additional submarines for Aukus. The entire document mentions Aukus only once, as a footnote, saying it has been excluded from the navy\u2019s projections.<\/p>\n

A report issued last month \u2013 Challenges Facing the Navy\u2019s and Coast Guard\u2019s Shipbuilding Programs and the Shipbuilding Industrial Base<\/a> \u2013 paints a dire picture of an industry that has consistently failed to meet targets.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Navy and the shipbuilding industrial base have had the resources, but have been unable to deliver the ships that the service has ordered in a timely manner.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the 2000s, it took US boat-builders six years to build and deliver an attack submarine the report said<\/a>. In the 2020s, it takes 10 years.<\/p>\n

Workforce challenges were the greatest brake on production rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cNearly all the major shipyards are having difficulty hiring and retaining workers, and a generation of longtime shipyard workers has retired or soon will. As a result, the workforces in many of those yards are, overall, less experienced than they were in the past.\u201d<\/p>\n

As well, up to 70% of suppliers of parts have no competitors, so \u201ca single supplier of a critical component could disrupt ship construction if it encountered difficulties in production\u201d.<\/p>\n

The US Congressional Research Service<\/a> has openly countenanced \u201calternative divisions of labour\u201d under which no Virginia-class submarines are ever transferred to Australian control.<\/p>\n

The research service\u2019s latest report on Aukus<\/a>, issued in January, considered a revision under which the submarines earmarked for sale to Australia are instead retained under US command to be sailed out of Australian bases.<\/p>\n

The report argued both for and against the US selling three Virginia-class submarines to Australia, beginning in 2032. But it makes the case that, in the event of a \u201cconflict or crisis\u201d with China over Taiwan, submarines under Australian command could not be ordered into operation, whereas US-commanded vessels, operated out of Australian bases, could be immediately deployed.<\/p>\n

Acting secretary of the navy, Hung Cao, appearing before the same house subcommittee as Admiral Caudle this week, gave an insight into the US perspective. He said he felt the submarines \u2013 under US or Australian command \u2013 were, essentially, interchangeable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe enemy will not know if it\u2019s an American submarine out there or an Australian submarine, because it\u2019s going to all be the same<\/a>\u2026 let them guess what\u2019s out there.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As Australia\u2019s Aukus spending blows out further, US submarine building falls years further behind: the strongest signal yet…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":647375,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-647374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=647374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/647375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=647374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=647374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=647374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}