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<\/p>\nWith two outs in the ninth inning of Friday night\u2019s San Francisco Giants game, Luis Arraez singled up the middle for his fourth hit. Giants announcer Duane Kuiper was optimistic \u2014 not that the single would lead to a comeback victory, necessarily, but that the extra at-bat for Matt Chapman, up next, could turn his season around. \u201cSometimes, all it takes is one at-bat,\u201d Kuiper said.<\/p>\n
Chapman ended the game by hitting a ball so poorly, so awkwardly, that it started in foul territory, then rolled back into play. The exit velocity was 50.1 mph, the launch angle was -66 degrees and the official distance traveled was one (1) foot. It could, perhaps, end up being the worst-hit fair ball of the 2026 season. It was not the hit that turned Chapman\u2019s season around. It was not the hit that turned the Giants\u2019 season around. It was just the final out of a 5-2 loss to the Athletics.<\/p>\n
It felt close to a breaking point. It was almost time for people in and around the Giants Cinematic Universe to call for Big Changes, even though the definition of Big Changes would have been vague to the point of being nonsensical and completely unhelpful. The yelling would have felt good in the moment, though.<\/p>\n
In the two games following that final out on Friday, however, the Giants scored 16 runs and collected 24 hits. They probably should have scored a lot more runs, considering they were 3-for-17 with runners in scoring position on Saturday, with all sorts of hard-hit outs sprinkled in throughout the weekend. All of the hitting was enough to get the Giants out of the cellar in a lot of offensive categories. They\u2019re no longer last in home runs, leapfrogging the Brewers, Red Sox and Marlins. They\u2019re now ahead of the Padres, Blue Jays and Mets in adjusted OPS. The aforementioned Chapman was all over both games, with well-timed doubles and runs driven in.<\/p>\n
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\n After two strong games this weekend, is Matt Chapman finally back on track? (Darren Yamashita \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re not familiar with the it\u2019s so over\/we\u2019re so back meme<\/a>, now\u2019s a great time to catch up, because it\u2019s apparently going to be the theme of the Giants\u2019 season. Good luck to you and your poor brain if they don\u2019t stick to one identity or the other. In the most basic zoomed-in view, the Giants have surpassed expectations for the road trip so far, and success against the Diamondbacks would make for an unambiguously excellent road trip. The obvious counterpoint is that every time they get close to making you feel better, they step on a rake, and, boy, does it keep happening, over and over again<\/a>.<\/p>\n The question before us: Can the Giants actually hit?<\/p>\n Before the season, the answer seemed obvious. Yes, they were going to score some runs, but the pitching was going to be an issue, especially the bullpen. So far, the actual problem has been the exact opposite, with a top-10 bullpen by ERA and expected ERA<\/a> and a lineup that can disappear for weeks at a time.<\/p>\n I have a half-baked theory, though. It\u2019s almost three-quarters-baked, with just a tiny bit of goop on the toothpick when you pull it out. It starts by looking at what hasn\u2019t changed for the Giants. It also doesn\u2019t answer the question, but we\u2019ll get to that. Here are some year-to-year numbers that have remained relatively static:<\/p>\n Statistic<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2026<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Avg. exit velo.<\/p>\n 88.9<\/p>\n 88.4<\/p>\n Bat speed<\/p>\n 71<\/p>\n 71<\/p>\n The bats are just as fast, if not a little faster, when you account for the Arraez effect. The difference between the exit velocities is nominal, and the Giants were never a bat-speed or exit-velocity darling, even when they were going well. This helps us because the lineups between last season and this season are mostly constant. If there were huge red flags, they\u2019d show up in the numbers that measure the physical side of baseball.<\/p>\n The numbers that are changing are more about approach and attack plans:<\/p>\n Batted ball statistics, by percentage<\/p>\n Statistic<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2026<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Barrel rate<\/p>\n 7.6<\/p>\n 6.3<\/p>\n Launch Angle<\/p>\n 15<\/p>\n 13.7<\/p>\n Ground ball<\/p>\n 40.6<\/p>\n 44.8<\/p>\n Fly ball<\/p>\n 27.9<\/p>\n 24.8<\/p>\n Before the weekend, the Giants were barreling fewer balls according to both Statcast and your own danged eyes, but the ground-ball rate was what really stood out. Last year, they had the eighth-lowest ground-ball rate in baseball, and that\u2019s a stat where lower is typically better. This year, the Giants have the seventh-highest ground ball rate. Again, a lot of these are the same batters, for the most part. They\u2019re just hitting the ball much, much differently.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s not a matter of slower bats. It shouldn\u2019t be a matter of age-related decline, not yet. This is why the 2026 Giants are so maddening.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s go back to the half-baked theory. It has to do with what\u2019s changed, and it\u2019s a two-parter. The first is that the league has changed, almost certainly because of ABS. There are more walks than there have been in a long time:<\/p>\n Season<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n BB%<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2026<\/p>\n 9.4<\/p>\n 2025<\/p>\n 8.2<\/p>\n 2024<\/p>\n 8.6<\/p>\n 2023<\/p>\n 8.4<\/p>\n 2022<\/p>\n 8.2<\/p>\n The Giants, on the other hand, are dead last in walks by a mile. Whatever the rest of the league is picking up on, the Giants are running in the opposite direction. And, again, these are mostly the same players. They were excellent at drawing walks months ago. Months!<\/p>\n Another thing that\u2019s changed, though, is that the Giants are attacking the ball differently. As in, their bats are literally traveling differently through the zone, and it hasn\u2019t been a good change.<\/p>\n Attack angle by season<\/p>\n 2025: 10 degrees
2026: 8 degrees<\/p>\n