\u201cIt\u2019s kind of a double whammy,\u201d Williams added.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n Farmer Orville Williams looks at drought-stressed wheat in one of his fields Saturday, May 16, 2026, near Montezuma, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Farmer Orville Williams looks at drought-stressed wheat in one of his fields Saturday, May 16, 2026, near Montezuma, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Storm clouds build in the distance beyond a drought-stressed wheat field Friday, May 15, 2026, near Cimarron, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Storm clouds build in the distance beyond a drought-stressed wheat field Friday, May 15, 2026, near Cimarron, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n Crop estimates underscore just how bad the situation is. Growers will see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1.56 billion bushels this year, down 21% from 2025. That\u2019s especially harmful to Kansas, one of the top overall producers of wheat in the U.S.<\/p>\n Only in five of the past 40 years has Kansas\u2019 wheat crop been in such a bad state, an analysis of USDA data shows, with 58% of the crop rated as \u201cpoor\u201d or \u201cvery poor\u201d as of May 17. The last time the fields were in as bad a condition was during a severe drought in 2023.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s very tough conditions that growers are faced with right now,\u201d said Kansas State agronomist Romulo Lollato. And he said that affects consumers, \u201cwhether it is through going to a bakery and having higher bread prices, or whether it\u2019s through losing some of the international market out there for the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n With this year so bad, many wheat growers have been forced to file for crop insurance or consider whether they can lean on other crops to withstand the uncertainties.<\/p>\n Williams saw close to 100 bushels of wheat per acre irrigated last year, but this year might only have 30 to 40. He splits his wheat crop between irrigated and dryland \u2014 for which farmers depend on rainfall and soil moisture \u2014 and there, he might only see 10 to 15 bushels per acre.<\/p>\n Williams and other farmers said they know they\u2019ll lose money this year. \u201cI guess my attitude is: Stay the course. Don\u2019t make any new purchases,\u201d he added. \u201cAnd forget your wants and just do your needs.\u201d<\/p>\n The weather is unpredictable, and farmers\u2019 costs are adding up.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n A drought-stressed stalk of wheat lies on a parched field Saturday, May 16, 2026, near Macksville, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n A drought-stressed stalk of wheat lies on a parched field Saturday, May 16, 2026, near Macksville, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n Climate change, caused by the burning of gas, oil and coal, has made farming a number of crops increasingly challenging over the years, experts say, and wheat is no exception. Several wheat farmers described worsening extremes this year, including the winter\u2019s intense and unseasonable heat<\/a>, late freezes and an ongoing shortage of rain. <\/p>\n The U.S., meanwhile, has lost ground in the global wheat market to Russia and the European Union; national wheat acreage has dropped over the past several years for a variety of reasons, said Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s certainly a downward trend for wheat in the Great Plains and elsewhere in the U.S. based on a number of factors, and certainly the weather challenges over the last couple of decades have been a big part of that,\u201d Rippey said.<\/p>\n \n Farmer Vance Ehmke looks at wheat damaged by a late freeze in one of his fields Friday, May 15, 2026, near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)\n <\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke looks at wheat damaged by a late freeze in one of his fields Friday, May 15, 2026, near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n \n Farmer Orville Williams looks at drought-stressed wheat in one of his fields Saturday, May 16, 2026, near Montezuma, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)\n <\/p>\n Farmer Orville Williams looks at drought-stressed wheat in one of his fields Saturday, May 16, 2026, near Montezuma, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n Still, wheat is the nation\u2019s third field crop as planted acreage, production and gross farm receipts after corn and soybeans, according to the USDA. The U.S. is one of the world\u2019s largest producers by volume of wheat each year, and it\u2019s a major exporter of the crop. <\/p>\n Thousands of U.S. farmers rely on wheat as an important livelihood, and factors outside of their control have made their work more difficult.<\/p>\n The dry conditions sped up how fast the crop grew, USDA data show, not a positive sign for the quality of the harvest.<\/p>\n By the end of the first full week of May, 86% of wheat crops in Kansas had produced a seed head, while 61% was typical in the previous 10 years at the same point in the season. The plant is \u201cgenetically programmed\u201d to produce a head before dying, Rippey said, but if they do so too early, the result will often be poor quality.<\/p>\n Only 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of wheat were planted this year to begin with, and harvested acreage hit just 22 million, marking abandonment, which is when farmers stop tending to a crop before harvesting, at slightly above 32% of this year\u2019s wheat crop, according to USDA estimates. <\/p>\n Except for the 2022-2023 cycle, there have only been a handful of other years in history where U.S. winter wheat abandonment has been higher, Rippey noted.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cattle graze in a field of abandoned wheat Friday, May 15, 2026, near Cimarron, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Cattle graze in a field of abandoned wheat Friday, May 15, 2026, near Cimarron, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Wheat plants struggle to survive in a drought-stressed field near Macksville, Kan., Saturday, May 16, 2026. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Wheat plants struggle to survive in a drought-stressed field near Macksville, Kan., Saturday, May 16, 2026. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n In Kansas, about 17% of the crop is being abandoned this year.<\/p>\n \u201cRain makes grain,\u201d said Mike Nickelson, a wheat and corn farmer in western Kansas. \u201cThat\u2019s the whole key. We can do the very best we can do and then if we don\u2019t get the rain, then it makes it pretty tough.\u201d<\/p>\n Forecasters are predicting a substantial El Nino<\/a>, a cyclical and natural process in which patches of the equatorial Pacific warm and alter the world\u2019s weather patterns, including rainfall. Because in the U.S., that is expected to mean warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer, it could be months before there is any drought relief. <\/p>\n \u201cIt seems like we\u2019re the ones out trying to feed the world and we\u2019re the ones suffering the most,\u201d Nickelson, 60, added. \u201cMy son is here farming with me, and I\u2019d really like to transition him to help take over the farm. I\u2019m like, really, do I want him to have to do this? I mean, it\u2019s a great life, but man, right now it\u2019s just tough.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke checks a wheat field decimated by wheat streak mosaic virus Friday, May 15, 2026, on his farm near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke checks a wheat field decimated by wheat streak mosaic virus Friday, May 15, 2026, on his farm near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke checks soil moisture in a wheat field decimated by wheat streak mosaic virus Friday, May 15, 2026, on his farm near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke checks soil moisture in a wheat field decimated by wheat streak mosaic virus Friday, May 15, 2026, on his farm near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n The war in Iran, meanwhile, has sent fuel prices soaring. Williams, the Montezuma farmer, said he drives 150 to 200 miles (240 to 320 kilometers) a day, and diesel is up nearly $2 per gallon from one year ago. <\/p>\n The cost of seed, fertilizer and more is rapidly adding up, too. Some growers bought fertilizer ahead of time for this season, but they worry about the year ahead. Farmers already have been navigating the consequences of the Trump administration\u2019s rocky trade policy.<\/p>\n Nickelson said urea, a type of fertilizer for agriculture, previously cost $400 a ton. He is now paying between $600 and $700 a ton. \u201cYou hope to break even, but I\u2019m not sure we\u2019re gonna do that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n There aren\u2019t many options for farmers to make up for losses.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke checks a wheat field decimated by wheat streak mosaic virus Friday, May 15, 2026, on his farm near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Farmer Vance Ehmke checks a wheat field decimated by wheat streak mosaic virus Friday, May 15, 2026, on his farm near Healy, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n For Ben Palen, a fifth-generation farmer and farming consultant, solutions are tough, and relief feels minimal.<\/p>\n Crop insurance to account for the losses only go so far. The Trump administration has offered one-time bridge payments for qualifying farmers<\/a> of a variety of crops to aid their increasing costs amid trade disruptions and inflation, but those funds are also limited. <\/p>\n Allowing the wheat to fallow \u2014 essentially leaving it unused to prep land for the next crop \u2014 or planting something unplanned aren\u2019t viable options, either. It\u2019s not just a matter of adding more water to the land to try to get wheat to stick, and it\u2019s difficult for farmers to change course to another crop at this point in the year.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a little late now to try to plant something on say, a wheat crop that\u2019s failed on a particular farm,\u201d Palen, 70, said, \u201cbecause we just don\u2019t have soil moisture to get another crop started. <\/p>\n \u201cThis is probably about as challenging of a time to be a farmer that I can recollect,\u201d he added. \u201cIt\u2019s a pretty serious situation.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Drought-stressed wheat is silhouetted against the setting sun Friday, May 15, 2026, in a field near Cimarron, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Drought-stressed wheat is silhouetted against the setting sun Friday, May 15, 2026, in a field near Cimarron, Kan. (AP Photo\/Charlie Riedel)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n This story has been updated to correct that wheat production is forecast to be down 21% from 2025, not down to 1.05 billion bushels that year. This story also corrects the spelling of the Kansas State agronomist\u2019s surname; his name is Romulo Lollato, not Romulo Lolloto.<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n St. John reported from Detroit. Associated Press journalists Alyssa Goodman in New York and M.K. Wildeman in Hartford, Connecticut, contributed to this report.<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n Read more of AP\u2019s climate coverage<\/a>.<\/p>\n ___<\/p>\n The Associated Press\u2019 climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP\u2019s standards<\/a> for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"MONTEZUMA, Kan. 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