Control of the House of Representatives could come down to four pivotal battleground races in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n
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With an increasingly limited map of competitive seats, both Democrats and Republicans are emphasizing the importance of these campaigns, which are about to get floods of money and investment from both sides.<\/p>\n
Some of that has already started, including from Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is on a party-building kick as he faces a re-election bid that, as of yet, is not expected to be particularly competitive. Shapiro, a potential 2028 presidential contender, has emphasized those four races, making primary endorsements in each and signaling he will be deeply involved in them as November nears. Help the battleground Democrats win, and Shapiro will be able to tell Democratic presidential voters about how he helped the party retake the House and defeat a broad spectrum of Republican House members. Fall short, and his political strength will come under further scrutiny.<\/p>\n
And there\u2019s the Donald Trump factor, too. Pennsylvania \u2014 a state critical to his 2016 and 2024 presidential victories \u2014 is one of his most-trafficked campaign stops. Republican victories, including by one of his closest congressional allies, would bolster his own political strength amid what is shaping up as a difficult election cycle for the GOP. Unlike Shapiro, though, Trump has yet to signal how big a role he will play in the contests.<\/p>\n
Tuesday\u2019s primaries locked in the cast of characters in those districts, though most of the matchups were virtually assured beforehand.<\/p>\n
In Pennsylvania\u2019s 1st District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick \u2014 one of the only congressional Republicans who won a district then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024 \u2014 will face Board of Bucks County Commissioners member Bob Harvie. In the 7th District, first-term Rep. Ryan Mackenzie will face state firefighters union head Bob Brooks in the state\u2019s swingiest district. <\/p>\n
![\"House](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/260519-Ryan-MacKenzie-aa-1040-82d21f.jpg\")
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., in Washington in March 2025.Tom Williams \/ Getty Images file<\/p>\n
In the neighboring 8th District, another first-term Republican, Rep. Rob Bresnahan, will face off with Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. And in the 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry, the onetime head of the House Freedom Caucus, will face former newscaster Janelle Stelson in a rematch of a 2024 contest Perry narrowly won.<\/p>\n
NBC News spoke with more than a dozen Pennsylvania political operatives, national strategists working on the races and candidates running in them. The picture that emerged was of a Democratic Party eager to zoom in on a tightly clustered group of pickup opportunities and tag-team the races with Shapiro, while Republicans, aware of the challenges, hope their battle-tested incumbents can withstand the onslaught. And the candidates from both sides, meanwhile, are portraying themselves as above Washington partisanship and in touch with working-class concerns.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe math is simple: Democrats can win back the House by flipping four seats in Pennsylvania,\u201d Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Eli Cousin said in a statement, calling the four Republicans \u201cuniquely vulnerable\u201d and touting Shapiro as \u201ca political juggernaut at the top of the ticket.\u201d<\/p>\n
A Democratic operative close to multiple potential 2028 contenders told NBC News they are \u201cfeeling very confident\u201d about the handful of battleground House races in Pennsylvania. But should Democrats fall short in any number of those contests, this person said, \u201cwhat a problem that would be.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cNot just for Democrats, because we need Congress, but because this was supposed to be the shining example of candidate selection and the governor getting in early and all that stuff,\u201d said this person, who requested anonymity because they are not allowed to speak with the media.<\/p>\n
Republicans who spoke with NBC News acknowledged the challenge of facing Shapiro\u2019s ticket in a state where he enjoys high approval ratings and defeated his 2022 opponent, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, by 15 points. And that is in addition to a tough national environment in which Trump\u2019s approval numbers are sagging and voters have expressed dissatisfaction with the economy and his handling of the war in Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn addition to facing uphill national tides against them, they also have to deal with the fact that Josh Shapiro is going to have unlimited money,\u201d said a former Trump campaign official with ties to the state, adding: \u201cWhich means that instead of spending money on his own re-election, he\u2019s going to be spending money targeting\u201d Perry, Mackenzie and Bresnahan.<\/p>\n
The former Trump campaign official said the candidate likeliest to feel the most heat from Shapiro is Perry, who was closely involved with Trump\u2019s effort to overturn the 2020 election and defeated Stelson in 2024 by a few thousand votes. This person said that if Shapiro makes it \u201chis mission\u201d to defeat Perry as outside spending floods the district, it will be difficult for Perry to prevail.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy guess is the No. 1 thing he talks about is getting Scott Perry so that he can call up any national donor and say not only did I flip two freshman districts, but also the former head of the Freedom Caucus is gone,\u201d the person said.<\/p>\n
In a primary night address to supporters Tuesday, Shapiro noted that Pennsylvanians \u201chave a lot of power and a lot of responsibility this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cYou also deserve leaders in Congress who will focus on getting stuff done for you \u2014 not going to D.C. to say yes to whatever they\u2019re told, no matter how much it hurts Pennsylvanians,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cThink about what it will look like after we flip four seats here in Pennsylvania and win all across this country in November to have a Congress that actually fights for us.\u201d <\/p>\n
The districts cover the Lehigh Valley, Wilkes-Barre\/Scranton through the Poconos, south-central Pennsylvania and a slice of suburban Philadelphia. The candidates have stressed bipartisanship in their messaging \u2014 and even some Republicans Shapiro is targeting have refrained from criticizing him.<\/p>\n
In interviews, Harvie said one of the facts he was most proud of in his time as commissioner was the high number of bipartisan votes he has taken. Cognetti, who ran for mayor as an independent, described the electorate in her city and district as favoring leaders who \u201cdon\u2019t govern in a partisan way.\u201d <\/p>\n
![\"Scranton](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/260519-Paige-Cognetti-aa-1044-a8227a.jpg\")
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in 2024.Matt Slocum \/ AP file<\/p>\n
Stelson said she was \u201cthe nonpartisan voice of this area for more than 30 years\u201d in local TV news, adding, \u201cFor me, it doesn\u2019t matter which party, Democrat, Republican, you will represent everyone, the independents, and I want them to know I\u2019m listening and I\u2019m going to be doing the work.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the Republican side, Bresnahan talked up his work on constituent services and membership in the Problem Solvers\u2019 Caucus. He touted bipartisan work on his website and, in a working-class district, was particularly proud of being one of a small handful of Republicans to win the backing of the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest federal employee union.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m one of only two Republicans in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania that they\u2019ve endorsed, because I\u2019m willing to work across the aisle,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Republicans see Bresnahan\u2019s work on labor issues as one of his best calling cards in what will be a difficult race. They\u2019re hopeful that a bruising primary in the neighboring district can boost Mackenzie\u2019s chances, while Fitzpatrick\u2019s proven ability to win in a tough political environment will serve him well.<\/p>\n
![\"Brian](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/260519-Brian-Fitzpatrick-aa-1042-cf39bd.jpg\")
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., at the Capitol on March 27.Tom Williams \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
A national Republican strategist working on the races said: \u201cI don\u2019t think anyone\u2019s under any illusions that it\u2019s gonna be easy. Everyone\u2019s very clear about the fact that we\u2019re looking to defy history here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrats in Pennsylvania are coalescing around a midterm message focused on the economy and, more recently, corruption. In his primary night address, Shapiro mentioned \u201ccorruption\u201d in Washington at least a dozen times. Both Stelson and Cognetti have framed themselves as corruption fighters in their runs.<\/p>\n