(Bloomberg) — A rally in Nokia Oyj is forcing investors to reconsider the company not as an old telecom-equipment stock, but as part of the infrastructure underpinning the artificial intelligence boom.<\/p>\n
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Shares of the Finnish company have surged more than 140% this year, making it the fourth-best performer in the Stoxx Europe 600. The stock is at the highest levels since 2008, thanks to soaring demand for its optical equipment that\u2019s playing a bigger role in data centers.<\/p>\n
The rally has already transformed how the market values the stock. Its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio has more than doubled to about 36 times, from roughly 17 times at the start of the year. Yet the AI and cloud business behind much of the excitement still accounted for just 8% of group sales in the first quarter, underscoring the debate over how much future growth investors should price in today.<\/p>\n
With Nokia already trading on AI sentiment, \u201cthe easy re-rating is gone,\u201d said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. \u201cThe interesting question is whether there is a second leg.\u201d<\/p>\n
Shares of optical component makers have soared this year as investors search for fresh targets with exposure to the AI boom. In the US, Lumentum Holdings Inc. and Coherent Corp. more than doubled. In Europe, Soitec and Aixtron SE have also posted strong gains.<\/p>\n
Once known for its sturdy handsets, the iconic Snake game and a global mobile-phone market share that peaked at roughly 40%, Nokia has spent years as a symbol of faded technology eminence. The shares are still trading nearly 80% below their 2000 peak.<\/p>\n
Since selling its mobile phone business to Microsoft Corp. in 2014, it has refocused to telecom infrastructure, a market with little growth predicted in the next 10 years as the 5G network buildout matures in many countries.<\/p>\n
Nokia\u2019s acquisition of Infinera Corp. last year bolstered its positioning in optical networking, just as the rising use of AI tools require faster and more efficient movement of data between computing clusters. The investment is bearing fruit already: AI-related sales grew by 49% in the first quarter. In April, it raised the guidance for the segments exposed to cloud customers.<\/p>\n
Nvidia Corp.\u2019s $1 billion investment in Nokia gave investors another reason to see it as part of the AI infrastructure trade rather than just a legacy telecom-equipment supplier. Under the deal, Nvidia\u2019s chips will be used to accelerate Nokia\u2019s software for 5G and 6G networks, and Nvidia will explore ways to use Nokia\u2019s data center technology in its own AI infrastructure.<\/p>\n
Story Continues <\/p>\n
These wins have pushed some to rethink how Nokia should be valued. Morgan Stanley analysts, for example, said price targets based mainly on next year\u2019s earnings risk missing the bigger picture if AI-related demand supports growth over a longer period. They argue that a valuation approach giving more weight to future cash flows better captures that potential.<\/p>\n
UBS takes a more segmented view. Its analysts said Nokia may be better assessed through a sum-of-the-parts framework, because investors are unlikely to apply the same multiple to its AI-exposed networking assets as they do to slower-growing parts of the business.<\/p>\n
Analyst views have yet to fully catch up with the rally, with the average price target still 25% below the current price. Less than half of analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate the stock as a buy.<\/p>\n
For Nokia, its core business of mobile networks remains a big drag. It still accounts for over half of overall sales and commands a lower operating margin than the AI-exposed segment. It has struggled to grow for years due to a reduced spending budget at telecom carriers and key contract losses in the US.<\/p>\n
So should Nokia be seen as a legacy telecom stock or an AI winner? The answer is likely somewhere in between. But after this year\u2019s gains, the next leg may depend on whether its orders can broaden to more customers and if that will translate to better profitability.<\/p>\n
With Nokia\u2019s products gaining traction among cloud providers, \u201cthat has helped fuel the idea that there may be a \u2018mini-Arista\u2019 and a \u2018mini-Ciena\u2019 inside Nokia,\u201d said BNP Paribas analyst Jakob Bluestone, referring to US-listed Arista Networks Inc. and Ciena Corp. That said, \u201cthe old Nokia has not disappeared either.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nokia trades at a more than 50% discount to Ciena on a 12-month forward price-to-earnings basis. Ciena gives investors a more direct way to play optical-networking demand from AI and cloud spending. At Nokia, the same exposure is still only part of a broader group.<\/p>\n
Given the AI part of the business is already priced for strong growth, the risk is that the market becomes over-supplied over time, just like other capital cycles in history, said Sondre Solvoll Bakketun, a portfolio manager at Skagen Vekst.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs fundamental investors, we see less attractive risk\/reward where the stock is currently priced and have scaled back our position significantly over the last few months,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Tech Chart of the Day<\/p>\n
Traders pushed bearish bets on Xiaomi Corp. to a record ahead of first-quarter earnings amid concerns over rising memory costs and escalating rivalry in China\u2019s electric vehicle market.<\/p>\n
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Chinese semiconductor stocks rose in Hong Kong on optimism over a potential breakthrough in technology by Huawei Technologies Co.<\/p>\n
A Samsung Electronics Co. union representing workers outside the ultra-profitable semiconductor division asked a Korean court to block voting on a tentative deal that would distribute about 40 trillion won ($26.6 billion) in bonuses to chip employees.<\/p>\n
Taiwan overtook India in stock market value, powered mainly by a breakneck rally in the world\u2019s largest chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.<\/p>\n
Earnings Due Tuesday<\/p>\n
–With assistance from Charlotte Yang and Subrat Patnaik.<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek<\/p>\n
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