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<\/p>\nFantasy Insider<\/p>\n
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Ludvig \u00c5berg sinks 7-foot birdie putt on No. 14 at Truist Championship<\/p>\n
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Written by Rob Bolton<\/p>\n
The head and the heart. Because these two staples that contribute to the decision-making process in all forms of gaming align less often than we want them to, it\u2019s magic when they do.<\/p>\n
Rory McIlroy at the 2025 Masters to complete the career Grand Slam? Ding. Gary Woodland rising from co-runner-up at the 2025 Texas Children\u2019s Hospital Open to winning the 2026 edition two weeks after sharing his ordeal with PTSD? Boom. They\u2019re the experiences you remember and celebrate almost as much as they do.<\/p>\n
The head always can argue that it\u2019s right, especially in the modern era in which there\u2019s never been as much data punched into prognostication. This process-based reasoning is valuable and preferred because it eliminates emotion.<\/p>\n
Victories for the heart typically are revealed after the head wins the quantifiable faceoff in advance of a decision. Chasing gut instincts is folly in a vacuum but, man, it\u2019s satisfying when you have a winning lottery ticket after you \u201chad a feeling.\u201d Veterans among us understand how this results-based reasoning yields education that transfers into your process for the next time you\u2019re making decisions. This also usually requires a resolution that allows for acceptance that you merely got lucky because, hey, that\u2019s golf.<\/p>\n
If there\u2019s a foil for the magic, it\u2019s presented at the Charles Schwab Challenge.<\/p>\n
As I detailed in the Power Rankings<\/a>, there hasn\u2019t been a first-time PGA TOUR winner or a winner in his first appearance at Colonial Country Club since Sergio Garcia checked both boxes in 2001. No other active tournament has been as exclusionary for as long to those seeking their breakthrough victories.<\/p>\n At +990 to win this week, Ludvig \u00c5berg is the favorite at DraftKings. He\u2019s No. 4 in my Power Rankings, 13th in the Official World Golf Ranking, and arrives having recorded a top-10 finish in six of his last seven starts. He\u2019s also a tournament debutant at the Charles Schwab. So … uh-oh?<\/p>\n The head considers those angles and immediately wants to shift to another option in the outright market. \u201cGonna go ahead and give the quarter-century-long trend this one.\u201d However, \u00c5berg isn\u2019t a non-winner on the PGA TOUR. He has a pair of titles. Hmm …<\/p>\n This is where the heart enters the chat. \u201cExactly. Stop it. He\u2019s Ludvig \u00c5berg! \u2018Nuff said.\u201d<\/p>\n Irrespective of their defenses, neither the head nor the heart can argue for or against the lanky Swede as the tournament favorite in the context of the variables that positioned him atop the board. DraftKings doesn\u2019t care as much about a historical bit of trivia \u2013 no matter how foreboding \u2013 as it does wanting to be able to turn the lights on come Monday. But if you\u2019re betting, you want every edge and you want to maximize every unit, so you won\u2019t ignore the extended drought.<\/p>\n For magic to happen for gamers seeking only a win at Colonial, the head must give in to the heart. It recognizes that \u00c5berg is generational talent-adjacent and how he\u2019s flourished across an array of first-time appearances since splashing in 2023. And while it\u2019s not easy to overlook the fact that he\u2019s won \u201conly\u201d twice in 62 PGA TOUR starts as a professional (for a winning percentage of 3.2, which is about the same as Adam Scott\u2019s career clip in 436 appearances), it also acknowledges that he was the runner-up in his debut at the 2024 Masters, which famously is the other tournament at which a debutant hasn\u2019t prevailed since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. No, second place isn\u2019t first place, but it was a standout introduction to Augusta National Golf Club that rewards experience.<\/p>\n So, if there\u2019s ever going to be a guy who best fits the profile as the next to win the Charles Schwab in his first try, it\u2019s \u00c5berg, and he might be the best option over the span of several years. Conveniently, bettors can dabble in other markets, and PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers can hedge with six-man lineups, but regardless, your heart will be challenging you to go big.<\/p>\n Michael Brennan (+7600), Matthieu Pavon (+20000) and Nick Dunlap (+39000) are the other first-timers at Colonial who have a victory on the PGA TOUR, but neither the head nor the heart considers any to be in the same conversation as it concerns our expectations for \u00c5berg.<\/p>\n Justin Thomas \u2026 The No. 1 in my Power Rankings is on a heater, not just for the first time since returning from a microdiscectomy but also in over a year since he went win-T2 at the 2025 editions of the RBC Heritage and Truist Championship, respectively. Moreover, in the absence of an obvious choice, he presents as a proper defense for front-runners who also don\u2019t want to overthink it.<\/p>\n Ludvig \u00c5berg … The conservative that I am can\u2019t designate him for the role for the reasons laid out above, but he\u2019s on a silver platter if you\u2019re chasing.Sungjae Im … Sticking with the Power Rankings in which he\u2019s No. 2, it could be argued that he\u2019s at the center of converging trends. That\u2019s never a bad way to decide on your leader if you\u2019re angling for value in a wide-open field.<\/p>\n Although the weather projects to be favorable early, Colonial has been known to hurl curveballs at the best-laid plans, so respect the cut and its impact. My lineup opens by preserving my last starts for both Im and \u00c5berg. While both could be useful at next week\u2019s edition of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday that concludes Segment 2 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, I will not hesitate to plug either in if necessary, either after the second or third round this week. It\u2019s specific to your situation, but it can be more valuable to absorb a zero in a round or two to retain a full start.<\/p>\n Pierceson CoodyRickie FowlerBen GriffinJustin Thomas (C)Sungjae Im (1)Ludvig \u00c5berg (2)<\/p>\n For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.<\/p>\n Russell Henley … Second-shortest at +1950 to win at DraftKings and populating almost 39% of the saved rosters at last check, but his successes in Texas have been few and far between in recent years. A solo fourth at the Valero Texas Open in 2024 is the nearest impressive object in the rearview mirror, and he\u2019s made only one appearance at the Charles Schwab in the last seven years (T16, 2023). However, with roster fatigue and his penchant to cash, he\u2019s a fair complement on a roster on which someone else is your captain.Akshay Bhatia … Hasn\u2019t so much slumped as he has slid since prevailing in a playoff at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in early March. No doubt it was a taxing stretch of action in which he earned the right to participate, but he was performing at an elite clip ahead of it. Cashed for a T22 at Colonial last year, but after he sat T4 through three rounds, so there might be as much thirst for redemption as there is to get back on the bicycle in the macro. Temper your expectations for the lefty as we continue to observe his matriculation to a fully formed profile. Still, with 44% of gamers on board, they\u2019re not concerned.Sahith Theegala … Given how his injured neck forced him to play from behind throughout 2025, he is not complaining that he\u2019s gained entry into all of the Signature Events so far this season. With four top 10s, another four top 25s and only one missed cut in 15 starts, he\u2019s officially back. However, he slowed at the end of his last road trip that extended five weeks, and he\u2019s just 1-for-2 at Colonial with a T57 (in his last visit in 2022) \u2013 a track on which it\u2019d be unexpected to find one\u2019s game \u2013 so even though over 18% of your fellow gamers are invested, sit this one out.Harry Hall … Although he\u2019s outside the top 20 in ownership percentage at 4.1, course-history buffs are attracted to a T3 in 2023 and a T6 last year, and rightfully so. And while he recently hung up a T8 at the Truist Championship, it\u2019s his only top 25 in his last seven starts, so it\u2019s fair to wonder how much of a toll his foray in the Signature Events has taken downstream.David Lingmerth … In the field at the Korn Ferry Tour\u2019s UNC Health Championship<\/a>. It\u2019d be his first live action since he opened the 2024 season with a pair of missed cuts before stepping away to address a serious level of undisclosed physical discomfort<\/a>. Now 38 years of age, it\u2019s encouraging that he\u2019s ready to give it a go again. The Swede rattled off a career-best five top 10s in 2022-23, and he has what essentially is a full season of 25 starts via a Major Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR<\/a>, so monitor his progress with the thought that he could contribute later this year.Aaron Baddeley … Also committed to the UNC Health Championship for what would be his first sanctioned start since the conclusion of the 2025 regular season on the PGA TOUR. The Aussie is equipped with six starts on a Minor Medical Extension due to a bout with inflammation in his body last year. Coupled with the fact that he\u2019s 45, his potential impact on PGA TOUR fantasy gamers is minimal, but salary leaguers who bought in at a penny for 2026 now have reason to be hopeful.<\/p>\n As it concerns his next goal, he could target finishing inside the top 70 of the FedExCup with his non-member equivalent at the conclusion of the Wyndham Championship. As it stands right now, he\u2019d slot 84th among members. He\u2019s also 13th on the Korn Ferry Tour Points List, which will graduate its top 20 to the PGA TOUR in 2027. Effective this season, the Top 70 Non-Member category is No. 27 in the Priority Ranking and below that of the Korn Ferry Tour cohort at No. 21. While there\u2019d likely be little effect for tournament entry in practice should he land in the lower of the two \u2013 consider that Sahith Theegala and Adam Scott are in Category 28 right now, and both are having solid seasons without headwinds for entry \u2013 it could influence Brown\u2019s short-range dedication to the PGA TOUR as he strides forward on the weekly. Each of his three PGA TOUR starts before THE CJ CUP were when the Korn Ferry Tour was dark, so there wasn\u2019t a choice to make if he wanted to compete.<\/p>\n Finishing inside the top 100 at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall for fully exempt status in 2027 is reserved for fully exempt members in 2026, so Brown would need to win a PGA TOUR event to join the FedExCup standings. Of course, if that happens, then he\u2019s fully exempt in the big leagues for the entirety of the next two seasons, anyway.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the target for finishing inside the top 100 of the FedExCup at the end of the season comes into play when determining his rookie eligibility. To date, he\u2019s made seven PGA TOUR starts this season. Once he\u2019s officially tagged with STM, he can become a rookie at one of three checkpoints: 1) His 10th start; 2) Sitting inside the top 70 of the FedExCup with his non-member equivalent at the conclusion of the Wyndham Championship; or 3) Sitting inside the top 100 of the FedExCup with his non-member equivalent at the conclusion of the 2026 season. (For my latest Rookie Ranking on X, click or tap here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n Put it all together, and you can understand how the meritocracy rewards good play for non-members. If there\u2019s a rub, it\u2019s that PGA TOUR gamers aren\u2019t promised more of him because of his options. It\u2019s Brown\u2019s world, so at least continue to enjoy the show.<\/p>\n For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET today.<\/p>\n