The Vegas Golden Knights entered the NHL by exploiting a unique expansion draft format. They\u2019ve followed that success by competing for every star player on the trade and UFA markets, trading for elite performers Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner. They\u2019ve signed everyone they\u2019ve needed to sign, moved on from core players well before they were forced, and let older core pieces walk instead of committing UFA money to players past their prime.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also the part where they fired their 2023 Stanley Cup-winning head coach shortly before the playoffs began. It was a move so antithetical to the Winnipeg Jets\u2019 loyalty-focused approach that we felt moved to reimagine the Jets\u2019 10 most important transactions<\/a> through a more ruthless, Vegas-esque lens. Not every ruthless re-do worked out better for Winnipeg \u2014 be careful what you wish for \u2014 but the comment section was filled with people suggesting we take the ruthless approach toward this Jets offseason.<\/p>\n Now that Vegas has reached its third Stanley Cup Final in only nine years, it\u2019s time to make good on the request. This is Winnipeg\u2019s ruthless route forward \u2014 starting with difficult decisions about an aging core, superstars included.<\/p>\n 1. Picking a lane: Live in the moment, retool, or rebuild?<\/p>\n The backstory:\u00a0Winnipeg isn\u2019t good enough to win the Stanley Cup, as constructed, and needs more impact players<\/a> than it has available. Miss the playoffs again and core players like Connor Hellebuyck may shift their priorities elsewhere, despite long-term contracts.<\/p>\n In Vegas, the answer would be simple. Whereas most teams follow competitive cycles, the Golden Knights have maneuvered their way into a perpetual state of \u201cwin now.\u201d Don\u2019t want to pay Jonathan Marchessault? That\u2019s fine: Just acquire Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin, Reilly Smith, and Rasmus Andersson at successive trade deadlines. Sign UFA Alex Pietrangelo. Trade Nate Schmidt after the fact. You\u2019ll figure out the cap; you always do. And if a truly great player like Eichel, Stone, or Marner becomes available? Go all-in, fearing nothing. They\u2019ll sign long-term, without issue.<\/p>\n Winnipeg can\u2019t beat Vegas at being Vegas. The Jets\u2019 loyalty-based approach \u2014 signing top veterans well into their late 30s \u2014 is one alternative, but has its limits. The Jets have succeeded when they fin unheralded players on other teams but they haven\u2019t recently acquired elite talent via trade, UFA, or the draft. When they have spent first-round picks for Paul Stastny, Kevin Hayes, and Sean Monahan, those players have signed elsewhere. Winnipeg\u2019s approach requires an outstanding prospect pipeline, ambitious promotion from within, and excellent retention rates of its own top prospects but often lacks draft capital.<\/p>\n The ruthless approach:\u00a0Ownership would hate it. It would probably hurt attendance. It would dismantle decades-long relationships with players the Jets drafted, developed, and retained. But the most ruthless approach is to sell Winnipeg\u2019s mid-30s talent while it\u2019s still performing at a high level.<\/p>\n This is one of the worst UFA markets in years. The salary cap has increased to $104 million and is projected to go up again in 2027-28 and 2028-29. There may never be a better market for elite players like Mark Scheifele and Hellebuyck at $8.5 million cap hits. Scheifele just scored 103 points, while Hellebuyck added an Olympic gold medal to his Hart Trophy and three Vezinas. Josh Morrissey is one of the league\u2019s top defencemen, despite a paltry $6.25 million cap hit. Kyle Connor\u2019s $12 million AAV is higher, but he\u2019s scored the 11th most goals in the NHL over the past three seasons.<\/p>\n All four players have some level of no-trade protection. The process to encourage them to waive could be brutal. But their collective value will never be higher than this summer, with this cap, and these free agents<\/a>. The most ruthless approach would be to trade them while their values are at their peak.<\/p>\n The projected outcome:\u00a0Broken hearts. We often discuss players who won\u2019t come to Winnipeg. Now we\u2019re talking about trading four of its greatest players, all of whom chose to stay. The rest depends on Winnipeg\u2019s ability to manage such a massive undertaking.<\/p>\n Anecdotally, a rebuild could be the best or worst thing Winnipeg ever did. The horror stories are many, with Edmonton at risk of fumbling the top superstar of his era and Buffalo finally back in the playoffs over a decade after drafting Eichel. There are success stories; Montreal looks poised to contend for several years, while teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Colorado all bottomed out<\/a> before winning the Cup. In the background of all this, we\u2019re only two years removed from this alarm from ownership<\/a> about attendance issues.<\/p>\n This proactive, loving embrace of such risk is beyond the real life Jets, but a rebuild isn\u2019t a Vegas-style solution. The Golden Knights don\u2019t commit to draft capital \u2014 they move on from core players before their age-related decline causes their value to plunge. If Winnipeg\u2019s veterans ever truly wanted out, the Jets would be better off moving them too early than too late.<\/p>\n 2. Kevin Cheveldayoff: The end of an era?<\/p>\n The backstory:\u00a0Kevin Cheveldayoff will become the longest-serving GM when Doug Armstrong officially passes the Blues\u2019 job to Alex Steen on July 1. During Cheveldayoff\u2019s tenure, Winnipeg has won the 11th-most regular-season games and the 23rd-most playoff games in the league.<\/p>\n Cheveldayoff is meant to have the toughest job in the league, as agents and rival executives frequently remind me, due to the league\u2019s proliferation of no-trade clauses and UFA challenges. It\u2019s possible that Winnipeg\u2019s middling results in 15 seasons reflect disproportionate success relative to the task and that cutting Cheveldayoff loose would only cause Winnipeg to decline. In this thought exercise, however, results matter most.<\/p>\n The ruthless approach:\u00a0Cheveldayoff is fired.<\/p>\n The projected outcome:\u00a0One GM\u2019s array of strengths and weaknesses gets replaced by another GM\u2019s array of strengths and weaknesses. Perhaps Winnipeg\u2019s cap outlook gets murkier as Cheveldayoff and AGM Larry Simmons are replaced by people who are less fastidious than they are. Perhaps the Jets make a higher volume of signings or trades, throwing more ideas at the wall, or perhaps they get shut down by no-movement clauses more than they do now.<\/p>\n The new hire and their staff would have their own blueprint for contention, with or without a rebuild. Their plan and their specific relationships, biases, strengths, and weaknesses would lead to their own outcomes. Commenter Zee B. recently suggested<\/a> that Winnipeg \u201cno longer manages prospects for game impact \u2014 they manage them to maximize contract control. No one makes the big club until they can no longer clear waivers.\u201d Maybe that changes. Maybe the new staff takes a different approach to development. Maybe some prospects become spectacular busts under a new regime, while others develop more while playing with top NHL talent early in their careers.<\/p>\n We\u2019ve only seen one Jets GM since 2011 and he\u2019s not fond of sharing detailed stories about Winnipeg\u2019s challenges as a market. As such, it\u2019s difficult to speak with certainty about this outcome or how likely it is that a different GM would get better results.<\/p>\n 3. Scott Arniel\u2019s Presidents\u2019 Trophy and playoff miss<\/p>\n The backstory:\u00a0Scott Arniel is the 14th-longest tenured head coach in the NHL since taking over from Rick Bowness. Winnipeg has won the eighth-most regular-season games and the 12th-most playoff games during that time, but it just missed the playoffs.<\/p>\n The ruthless approach:\u00a0Arniel is fired. This is a piece about ruthlessness, after all.<\/p>\n