Coastal scientists expect the Chesapeake Bay will experience one of its milder dead zones in recent decades this year.<\/p>\n
Lower than average precipitation this year meant lower river flows, and in turn, less dead zone-contributing nitrogen entered the watershed, according to the\u00a0Chesapeake Bay 2026 Hypoxia Forecast<\/a> released this month.<\/p>\n Dead zones consist of low-oxygen areas, known as hypoxia, which create difficult survival conditions for blue crabs, oysters, fish and other marine life. Hypoxia occurs when an excess of nutrients makes its way to the bay, forming large algal blooms, which eventually die and consume oxygen from the water.<\/a> Warming temperatures and fluctuating rain patterns can intensify conditions.<\/p>\n Dead zone severity is forecast to be about 31% less than average, potentially making this year one of the least severe years since 1985. That\u2019s according to the hypoxia forecast from\u00a0William & Mary\u2019s Batten School of Coastal and Marine Sciences and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and FlowWest, a science and engineering consulting firm.<\/p>\n With less-than-average precipitation and the entire commonwealth experiencing some level of drought conditions in April<\/a>, stream and river flows to the Chesapeake Bay at the beginning of this year were 32% lower than the long-term average.<\/p>\n \u201cLower nitrogen loads entering the bay this spring are expected to translate into better oxygen conditions for fish, crabs, oysters and other bay life this summer,\u201d said Aaron Bever, an environmental scientist with FlowWest, said in a release.<\/p>\n Long-term efforts to reduce nutrient runoff are working,\u00a0according to W&M\u2019s Batten School and VIMS. Marjy Friedrichs, a professor at the Batten School and VIMS, said cleaning wastewater treatment plants, as well as reducing fertilizer on bay-front properties and farms have improved the Chesapeake Bay\u2019s habitat.<\/p>\n \u201cOver the past 30, 40 years, we\u2019ve really made tremendous progress on reducing the amount of nutrients coming into the bay,\u201d Friedrichs said. \u201cWe knew that eventually the nutrient reductions were going to have an effect, but it takes a long time to see.\u201d<\/p>\n In 2023, scientists recorded the smallest dead zone<\/a> in the Chesapeake Bay since recording began in 1985.\u00a0 A mild dead zone means a cleaner, healthier bay, Friedrichs said, increasing the likelihood of catching a fish, and decreasing the chances of algal blooms in swimming spots.<\/p>\n Regardless of the favorable forecast, heavy rainfall, heat waves or extended calm periods still guide the size and duration of dead zones. They can also develop more easily with the effects of climate change<\/a>, such as increases in air and water temperatures, according to VIMS.<\/p>\n