{"id":677964,"date":"2026-06-01T14:06:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T14:06:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/677964\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T14:06:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T14:06:10","slug":"black-and-latino-voters-face-an-affordability-gap-before-the-midterm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/677964\/","title":{"rendered":"Black and Latino voters face an affordability gap before the midterm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Affordability is a top issue for Americans and will be a\u00a0key\u00a0component in the 2026 midterms.<\/a> Racial and ethnic minorities will be a crucial voting bloc in future elections, and given that they are some of the most vulnerable communities bearing the brunt of economic downturns, their opinions on the economy shouldn\u2019t be overlooked. Lower-income Americans are widely understood to face tremendous challenges with daily-cost-of-living expenses, but\u00a0recent reports point to middle-class Americans also\u00a0struggling\u00a0with affordability across every state<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Below, Brookings scholars from the Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative<\/a> (RPII) discuss the affordability crisis<\/a> in America, and find a harsher reality than what President Trump has consistently described throughout his second term. From his State of the Union address claiming Americans are \u201cthriving\u201d to his mid-May assertion that he does not \u201cthink about Americans\u2019 financial situation\u201d<\/a> when negotiating with Iran, we analyze the disconnect between the administration\u2019s messaging and the lived experiences of Americans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Keon L. Gilbert<\/p>\n

Stagnant wages and policy shifts dim Black economic prospects<\/p>\n

Recent polling suggests that\u00a0a majority of Americans (57%)<\/a> believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, contradicting the Trump administration\u2019s\u00a0messaging of a \u201cthriving nation.\u201d Perhaps most telling, a net 76% of Americans describe current economic conditions as fair or poor.<\/p>\n

While President Trump inherited a\u00a0strong\u00a0economy<\/a>, \u00a0many\u00a0Americans believe there is a\u00a0cost-of-living crisis<\/a> and are uncertain about when or how conditions will improve. Many also believe the Trump administration has deepened the affordability\u00a0crisis<\/a> through rising prices<\/a>\u00a0and its geopolitical actions, contributing to\u00a0inflation outpacing wages<\/a>\u00a0for the\u00a0first time since May 2023 and reaching 3.8% this past April.\u00a0Although no single government agency controls the economy, many Americans across the political spectrum believe government should help manage the costs<\/a> of daily living\u2014from health care, medications, and groceries, to child care, housing, and utilities, and <\/a>. These rising costs are leading many households to fall behind on bills<\/a> such as rent, mortgage, car payments, and utilities. Middle- and lower-income households\u2014and Black and Hispanic households in particular\u2014will continue to bear the greatest burden if wages remain stagnant and economic conditions don\u2019t improve.<\/p>\n

Many Black communities are contending with recent federal workforce changes driven by Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) layoffs, which have had a disparate impact<\/a> on the Black community, particularly Black women. Recovery will be harder for them if the economy does not improve, a pattern evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when white unemployment declined while Black unemployment<\/a> remained unchanged. In April 2026, Black unemployment<\/a> fell to 7.3% after peaking at 8.2% in November 2025. These macroeconomic shifts are compounded by a political climate hostile to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies<\/a>, public sector jobs, and union protections, all areas where Black Americans have historically made gains through anti-discrimination policies and collective bargaining<\/a>. The Trump administration\u2019s rollback of anti-discrimination protections, combined with tariffs, layoffs, and firings concentrated in sectors employing large numbers of Black workers<\/a>\u2014including manufacturing, private education, and health services\u2014threatens to set back Black economic progress significantly<\/p>\n

The cost of this administration\u2019s policies has been passed on<\/a> to everyday Americans by corporations. Spending patterns are diverging sharply: More affluent Americans are spending more, with the top 20% of earners<\/a> accounting for 59% of consumer spending. Meanwhile, middle- and lower-income Americans are cutting costs where they can, cancelling subscriptions, saving more, and turning to social services such as food banks. Food bank usage has\u00a0surged<\/a>\u00a0since the\u00a0Trump administration\u2019s cuts to food assistance programs<\/a>, including SNAP, took effect through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Labor market shifts and stagnant wages will likely hinder economic progress in Black communities, including efforts to lower unemployment rates<\/a> and expand the number of \u00a0Black-owned businesses<\/a>.\u00a0There is little expectation that the racial income and wealth gaps<\/a> separating Black and white communities will narrow under the current administration\u2019s policies, and data suggest the divide is more likely to grow grow.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Without significant policy changes to raise wages, slow inflation, or expand rental, food, and health care assistance, most American families will continue to bear the consequences of a struggling economy. Trump has claimed the affordability crisis is over, but if that were true, Americans across income levels would not be experiencing the hardships the data show. Waning trust in both parties<\/a> has left many Americans skeptical that either can deliver. With the midterms approaching, the party that presents a credible plan to lower the cost of daily living\u2014and can actually execute it\u2014will have the advantage.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gabriel R. Sanchez<\/p>\n

Voters of color who backed Trump in 2024 are having second thoughts<\/p>\n

As the midterm elections near, data and public perception fall short of the \u201cgolden age\u00a0of America<\/a>\u201c President Trump promised. Despite rising gas prices and little improvement across other goods, the administration continues to tout the strength<\/a> of the American economy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index\u2014the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure excluding food and energy\u2014prices rose 3.2% over the past year,<\/a> indicating continued pressure on household budgets. Gas prices have been particularly damaging. Americans recently experienced the largest monthly jump<\/a> in gas prices in 60 years, contributing to an overall spike in inflation in April.<\/a> The president\u2019s economic approval ratings<\/a> have dropped significantly, with 64% of Americans saying<\/a> rising gas prices have created financial hardship for their households. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Experts note that the\u00a0policy shocks<\/a> stemming from the Trump administration\u2019s tariff and immigration policies have made the economic outlook more volatile and weakened Americans\u2019 spending power<\/a>. The administration\u2019s war with Iran has only added further financial strain.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The economic well-being of the nation\u2019s racial and ethnic minorities is especially precarious. The Trump administration\u2019s policy agenda is exasperating racial economic inequalities, threatening the Black\u00a0middle class<\/a>, and devastating industries with high concentrations of Latino workers<\/a>, including construction, health services, and manufacturing. Cuts to social programs are also having an outsized impact on Native American communities and other racially diverse populations<\/a>, reinforcing that the lived experiences of many Americans are far from \u201cgolden.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The President\u2019s own messaging suggests more economic pain may lie ahead for diverse Americans, who rely on federal programs at greater rates than white Americans. Trump has stated it is \u201cnot possible\u201d<\/a> for the U.S. to pay for Medicaid, Medicare, and day care because \u201cWe\u2019re fighting wars.\u201d For racial and ethnic minorities already struggling to get by, the prospect of losing access to health care and child care. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The state of the economy will be the most important indicator of which party wins the congressional majority in the upcoming midterms. As discussed in prior posts<\/a>, economic concerns drove Latinos and other racial and ethnic minorities to support President Trump at higher rates in 2024 than in his prior two campaigns.\u00a0It stands to reason that continued economic hardship may lead these voters to reconsider. There is growing evidence that key segments of the electorate, including Latino small business owners<\/a>,\u00a0Black voters<\/a>, and other constituencies, are already doing so. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is far from the golden age the president described in his State of the Union address. In contrast to 2024, when most voters had greater confidence in President Trump and the GOP to address the economy, recent polling suggests<\/a> that public confidence in the administration\u2019s ability to improve economic well-being is waning. The advantage Trump and the GOP once held on economic issues has largely disappeared, and the president\u2019s approval on tariffs and inflation now trails even his overall approval ratings. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Latinos reflect this broader trend. The economy, which drove Trump\u2019s gains with this key voting bloc in 2024, is now pushing Latino voters toward Democrats ahead of the congressional races. A recent UnidosUS survey<\/a> found that 65% of Latino voters believe President Trump and congressional Republicans are not focused enough on improving the economy, and nearly 4 in 10 Latinos say their economic situation has worsened over the past year. The survey projects that if the midterms were held today, Democrats would win the Latino vote by a wide margin\u201452% to 28%\u2014though many Latino voters remain undecided. With Latino voters prioritizing inflation, jobs, and housing control of Congress may hinge on whether Latinos and other voters of color who voted for Trump in 2024 have lost their\u00a0confidence in his ability to improve the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rashawn Ray<\/p>\n

Behind Trump’s economic boasts, a more complicated picture <\/p>\n

Months after President Trump boasted in his State of the Union address of a \u201cturnaround for the ages,\u201d citing record employment, a soaring stock market, falling crime, and housing relief, public opinion polling suggests otherwise. Some\u00a064% of Americans disapprove of Trump\u2019s handling of the economy<\/a>, and only 37% approve of him overall. As the midterms approach, Americans\u2019 negative views on the economy, their perception of who is to blame, will be a deciding factor this fall.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The\u00a0data<\/a> tell a clear story of why public opinion on the economy has shifted so quickly.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On jobs,\u00a0Trump has claimed more Americans are working than ever\u2014technically true in raw numbers, but misleading in context. The unemployment rate<\/a> remained relatively flat, moving from 4.2% in April 2025 to 4.3% in April 2026, with a peak of 4.5% in November 2025. The total number of jobs<\/a> added in 2025\u2014181,000\u2014was by far the lowest\u00a0since the pandemic<\/a> year of 2020. For Black workers, the picture is worse:\u00a0Black unemployment surged to 8.2% by late 2025<\/a>, a level economists associate with recessionary conditions. And the longstanding Black-white unemployment gap of roughly 2 to 1 has not improved.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On housing,\u00a0Trump has claimed the annual cost of a new mortgage is down nearly $5,000, but housing\u00a0costs are actually up<\/a> 1.8% year over year. Black homeownership stands at roughly 45% compared with about 74% for white households<\/a>\u2014a gap that has persisted for generations<\/a>\u00a0and shows no signs of narrowing under current policy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On money and the stock market,\u00a0Trump has boasted of 53 all-time highs, but the S&P 500 has risen roughly in line with pre-inauguration analyst projections. Meanwhile, racial inequalities in access to retirement accounts persist<\/a>, particularly for Latino workers. Rural communities and low-income workers face compounding economic pressures on multiple fronts: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that for families earning less than $55,000 a year<\/a>, losses in Medicaid and food assistance under Trump\u2019s One Big Beautiful Bill will likely outweigh any tax savings, leaving them financially worse off. For working-class families in manufacturing towns and communities of color, the \u201cgolden age\u201d may remain out of reach.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On violent crime,\u00a0Trump has claimed credit for a historic drop in murder rates, citing National Guard deployments to Washington, D.C., Memphis, and New Orleans as proof. He is correct that last year\u2019s murder rate<\/a> saw its single largest recorded annual decline, but the causation he claims is heavily disputed. Murders and violent crime were already declining after increasing during the COVID-19 pandemic, dropping to a 20-year low<\/a> in Biden\u2019s final year in office. Trump claimed D.C. now has \u201calmost no crime anymore,\u201d but experts note that around 7,000 crimes have been reported<\/a> in the city since the start of 2026. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas\u00a0pushed back directly<\/a>, arguing that crime reductions in his city were the result of local initiatives\u2014not White House policy\u2014and that the Trump administration has done nothing to help\u00a0local communities<\/a>. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott similarly credited local investments<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0violence interrupters<\/a>, social programs, and job opportunities with driving down crime rates. Decades of criminology research supports the mayors\u2019 position: community-based violence intervention, mental health investment, and economic development in high-poverty neighborhoods have consistently outperformed military-style enforcement in producing lasting reductions in violence. Research has also found that undocumented immigrants<\/a> are less likely than native-born Americans to be arrested for violent, drug, or property crimes\u2014directly undercutting Trump\u2019s central narrative linking immigration enforcement to public safety gains.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ultimately, where a person sits in the social and economic hierarchy shapes how they may experience and feel\u00a0about\u00a0the economy<\/a>, view local programs and infrastructure, and perceive federal investments. In some ways, perception can outweigh reality\u2014and heading into the midterms, that may matter just as much as the data.<\/p>\n

The data and polling do not support the positive economic outlook the Trump administration has touted since the early days of his second term. This fall\u2019s midterm results will reveal whether voters, particularly those in Black and Latino communities, translate their economic dissatisfaction into action to the ballot box.<\/p>\n

The Brookings Institution is committed to quality, independence, and impact.
We are supported by a diverse array of funders<\/a>. In line with our values and policies<\/a>, each Brookings publication represents the sole views of its author(s).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Affordability is a top issue for Americans and will be a\u00a0key\u00a0component in the 2026 midterms. Racial and ethnic…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":677965,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[11415,23,59247,966,14091,37821,60034,3200,3071,8876,59244,14099,252,59246,23393,37823,14094,3,4265,37828,33526,15887,10119,59245,23394,3657,23395,14100,21,19,22,20,25,24,89165],"class_list":["post-677964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-2026-midterms","tag-america","tag-and-inclusion-initiative-rpii","tag-article","tag-business-workforce","tag-campaigns-elections","tag-cities-communities","tag-commentary","tag-crime","tag-economic-indicators","tag-economic-security-mobility","tag-governance-studies","tag-health-care","tag-how-we-rise","tag-immigrants-immigration","tag-justice-safety","tag-labor-unemployment","tag-news","tag-north-america","tag-presidency","tag-prosperity","tag-public-opinion","tag-race","tag-race-in-public-policy","tag-society-culture","tag-u-s-economy","tag-u-s-government-politics","tag-u-s-states-and-territories","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa","tag-worker-power-economic-security"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=677964"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677964\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/677965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=677964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=677964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=677964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}