{"id":691678,"date":"2026-06-08T14:13:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T14:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/691678\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T14:13:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T14:13:15","slug":"wall-street-eats-its-forecasts-as-stocks-sell-off-on-fear-of-ai-bubble-ahead-of-spacex-ipo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/691678\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street eats its forecasts as stocks sell off on fear of AI bubble ahead of SpaceX IPO"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stocks are selling off globally this morning as unhappy investors see the price of oil rising again\u2014because of renewed conflict in the Middle East\u2014and President Trump\u2019s inability to rein in<\/a> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There\u2019s also a total meltdown in semiconductor stocks, a bad sign for the SpaceX IPO on Friday. The VIX fear index is up 24% over the last five days. \u201cThere seems to be no single cause, rather a general sense of increasing risk,\u201d UBS\u2019s Paul Donovan said this morning.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 declined 2.64% on Friday, a huge drop. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was even worse, down 4.18%. The Philadelphia semiconductor collapsed 10.26%. This morning, S&P futures rose 0.35% prior to the opening bell\u2014perhaps suggesting that retail investors might once again step in to buy the dip.
\nBrent crude was $97 per barrel this morning, up sharply on news that Iran and Israel had resumed bombing each other<\/a>.
\nIn Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.75% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down 0.4% before lunch.
\nAsia: South Korea\u2019s KOSPI down an astonishing 8.29%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down 3.85%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down 0.9%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down 2.14%.\u00a0
\nBitcoin was $63K.<\/p>\n

Investors are still trying to digest Friday\u2019s surprisingly strong U.S. job numbers, the question of whether the Fed will spoil all the fun by raising interest rates<\/a>, and the bubbly prospect<\/a> of three huge IPOs in the AI sector, coming this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

One thing is for sure: stock buyers sent a strong warning to the market that their patience is not limitless. They may have turned a blind eye to trade tariffs and the high price of oil until now, but they\u2019re not going to ignore rising interest rates and low-quality AI financials.<\/p>\n

What traders appear to be thinking is that the robust jobs number\u2014payrolls rose 172,000 in May, far above expectations of around 88,000\u2014will persuade the Fed that the economy is running hot, especially if inflation (currently 3.8%) moves up toward the unemployment rate (4.3%). A new consumer price index number will come out on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Most Wall Street analysts now say that any further Fed interest rate cuts are off the table, and many predict the central bank will raise interest rates later this year. That\u2019s bad for stocks, because it makes new money more expensive\u2014hence Friday\u2019s massacre.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s bad for bonds too, because higher interest rates make debt more expensive. That\u2019s where the link to AI and tech stocks comes in. Google issued $85 billion in new stock last week, and Meta is considering doing something similar<\/a>. That came after both Meta and Oracle raised billions in private debt to fund AI data center buildouts. \u201cHyperscaler supply [of new debt] has reached $159 billion year-to-date, which is 91% of our $175 billion forecast for the full year,\u201d Bank of America\u2019s Yuri Seliger told clients recently. It was roughly $121 billion last year.<\/p>\n

‘We didn\u2019t see this coming’<\/p>\n

Economists were shocked by the jobs number on Friday. (Vanguard, for instance, forecast a gain of only 20,000 jobs<\/a>.) \u201cWe didn\u2019t see this coming,\u201d Pantheon\u2019s Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen said in a hastily written email. \u201cPayrolls have surprised the consensus to the upside for three straight months, a relatively rare occurrence which suggests the improvement is more than just noise … the three-month average of private payrolls has picked up to 166K\u2014its highest since June 2023\u2014from 8K in February.\u201d<\/p>\n

This chart from Daiwa Capital Markets shows that the job market now appears to be in an upswing. Before the revisions, it looked rather flat:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Growth, yes, but it\u2019s narrow and fragile<\/p>\n

While that economic growth is nice, it also looks very narrow. All U.S. growth in private, non-real estate, investment is in decline\u2014except for AI, as this chart from ING\u2019s James Smith<\/a> shows:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cThe circularity [of the AI economy] is attracting more attention: the same handful of firms raising money, buying chips, leasing compute, and booking revenues off one another. That may not spell disaster,\u201d he says \u201cbut the fact remains that if you strip out AI, the rest of U.S. private non-residential investment has been falling year-on-year for six straight quarters.\u201d<\/p>\n

And all the job gains came from just three sectors: leisure and hospitality, government, and private education, and health care services. Only 10,000 other jobs were created outside those sectors, ING\u2019s James Knightley noted<\/a>. So there\u2019s growth\u2014but it is highly concentrated in just a few areas. \u201cWhile this is a very good report at the headline level, the lack of breadth to the job creation story remains an important theme,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

SpaceX IPO on Friday will be a huge test<\/p>\n

At the same time, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all expected to go public this year. They are all AI companies (SpaceX contains the Grok AI model). SpaceX\u2014which will launch its IPO on Friday\u2014is not profitable and the other two are not expected to be, either. It\u2019s not at all clear whether investors will welcome the excitement of these megacap companies or reject them as money-losing bubble stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

‘There be dragons’<\/p>\n

Finally, Michael Hartnett and his colleagues at Bank of America pointed out in a note seen by Fortune that this week there is a chance the headline inflation rate could go above the unemployment rate\u2014which is almost never good. If that happens, it would be only the seventh time since 1960. Those years (’66, ’73, ’90, ’00, ’08, and ’21) featured \u201cyears of Fed hikes, and none remembered well on Wall Street,\u201d he says. He also noted that the unemployment rate minus consumer price inflation \u201chas [a] strong correlation with U.S. yield curve, and points to inversion.\u201d Yield curve inversion\u2014when investors become more afraid of the near-future than the long-term\u2014is a traditional harbinger of recession.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

NO THANK YOUPrivate credit loses its appetite for tech<\/p>\n

\u201cBusiness development companies\u201d\u2014private credit lenders who give loans to non-public companies\u2014are attracting a lot less money this year, in part because investors aren\u2019t as enthusiastic about the number of tech companies taking on debt, according to Teri Seelig and her colleagues at KBRA. \u201cCapital raises for the five largest perpetual-life BDCs declined more than 50% YoY, with aggregate fundraising decreasing to roughly $5 billion in 1Q26 compared to approximately $10.8 billion during 1Q25,\u201d she said in an email to Fortune.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n

\u2018Yet another way in which 2026 is looking like 1999\u2019: Top analyst fears bubble popping with investors and Wall Street out over their skis<\/a> – Nick Lichtenberg<\/p>\n

Iran fires missiles at Israel in first such bombardment since ceasefire as Trump says \u2018I\u2019m not happy about\u2019 Israeli strikes on Lebanon<\/a> – the AP<\/p>\n

Trump calls Iran war a \u2018military exercise\u2019 even as Hormuz fighting heats up and denies promising no new wars \u2014 despite repeated pledges<\/a> – Jason Ma<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz is more open than previously thought as the U.S. shoots down Iranian drones threatening ships and provides \u2018naval overwatch\u2019<\/a> – Jason Ma<\/p>\n

Elon Musk bullet-proofed his $1 trillion \u2018Mars-shot\u2019 pay at SpaceX after the epic battle over his $56 billion moonshot at Tesla<\/a> – Amanda Gerut<\/p>\n

OpenAI readies \u2018superapp\u2019 pivot ahead of planned IPO, FT reports<\/a> – Bloomberg<\/p>\n

OpenAI\u2019s Sam Altman says his highly disciplined daily routine has \u2018fallen to crap\u2019\u2014and now unwinds on weekends at a ranch with no cell phone service<\/a> – Jacqueline Munis<\/p>\n

CHART OF THE DAYA lot of ‘announced’ data centers haven\u2019t actually been built yet<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs estimates that big tech hyperscalers will spend $7.6 trillion on AI capex<\/a> through 2031. But Amanda Lynam and her Goldman colleagues note that announcing a deal to build a data center is very different from actually getting shovels into the ground. There\u2019s a \u201cbacklog\u201d of something like 3,500 data center projects that have been announced but are not yet built, her research suggests.\u00a0<\/p>\n

NUMBER OF THE DAY27%<\/p>\n

The amount of global central bank reserves now held in gold, according to UBS<\/a> and the European Central Bank. Central banks now hold more gold than U.S. government bonds, even though the dollar has been the world\u2019s \u201creserve currency\u201d for years. (And to be fair, it still is.) U.S. Treasuries are 22% of reserves and the euro is 15%.<\/p>\n

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n

Trump says Netanyahu will have \u2018no choice\u2019 but to accept a deal with Iran<\/a> – FT<\/p>\n

Iran and Israel exchange strikes, threatening fragile ceasefire<\/a> – CNBC<\/p>\n

Trump tells Netanyahu not to strike Iran<\/a> – Axios<\/p>\n

The Hidden Figure With Close Ties to Bill Gates and Jeffrey Epstein<\/a> – WSJ<\/p>\n

Houthis to Impose \u2018Complete Ban\u2019 on Israeli Ships in Red Sea<\/a> – Bloomberg<\/p>\n

Scott Pelley on the Bari Weiss Era and His Last Days at \u201860 Minutes\u2019<\/a> – NYT<\/p>\n

ONE MORE THINGThis woman was forced out of Goldman Sachs because her elaborate cakes might ‘reflect negatively on the firm’
\n\"AllisonAllison Sheehan<\/p>\n

Courtesy of Allison Sheehan<\/p>\n

Allison Sheehan used to work in wealth management at Goldman Sachs and had a side hustle as a baker of elaborate cakes on TikTok, where she styled herself as the \u201cInvestment Baker.\u201d She would document her 5 a.m. wake-ups to whip buttercream and put frosting on tiered heart-shaped cakes. She had around 1,000 social media followers and a growing list of notable clientele\u2014including Goop, Valentino, Brooke Shields, and Gigi Hadid, according to Fortune\u2019s Emma Burleigh<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But Goldman Sachs\u2019 compliance team took issue with her use of the word \u201cinvestment\u201d in her social media handles and ordered her to take down every post. The company\u2019s code of conduct instructs employees to avoid making content that \u201ccan reflect negatively on the firm,\u201d Sheehan said. Eventually, Sheehan chose baking over Wall Street, and quit the bank.<\/p>\n

Now, the 27-year-old\u2019s Investment Baker socials are followed by tens of thousands, and her cake business is thriving as she pursues an MBA at Northwestern.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Stocks are selling off globally this morning as unhappy investors see the price of oil rising again\u2014because of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":662981,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[28,110,801,112,3],"class_list":["post-691678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-economics","tag-iran","tag-markets","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=691678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691678\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/662981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=691678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=691678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=691678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}