While this crisis has been building for decades, its nature recently changed. In the 20th century, fertility fell primarily because couples started having fewer children. Now, it is falling mostly because fewer people are forming couples \u2014 or having sex at all.<\/p>\n
If these trends continue, the consequences will be transformative \u2014 and possibly, catastrophic, as graying populations place unprecedented burdens on the remaining young. Vast countries will swiftly shrivel into city states. Today, Thailand is home to 63 million people. In two centuries, that will fall to 2 million<\/a>, if the country\u2019s current fertility rate persists.<\/p>\n Global fertility has fallen below the \u201creplacement rate\u201d of 2.1 births per woman.The collapse in the 2010s in romantic partnership tracks closely with mass smartphone adoption.AI chatbots and companion apps may accelerate the trend by offering on-demand emotional support and validation.<\/p>\n These are just 23rd-century problems. If sustained indefinitely, today\u2019s global fertility rate would ensure humanity\u2019s extinction.<\/p>\n And it\u2019s partly your phone\u2019s fault.<\/p>\n Or so one leading theory goes. To make sense of recent fertility trends, some analysts have turned to the devices in their pockets. In the view of the journalist John Burn-Murdoch<\/a> and social scientist Alice Evans<\/a>, the smartphone helped birth the global spike in singledom.<\/p>\n Their argument goes (partly) like this: As smartphone ownership skyrocketed globally during the 2010s, more and more young people tapped into a vast, omnipresent trove of personalized entertainment, which reduced their incentives to socialize in person. When you have virtually every movie, TV show, and pornography ever made at your fingertips, you no longer need parties for stimulation or diversion. And when you have an X or Facebook account, you can participate in a public conversation \u2014 and experience communal recognition \u2014 without ever leaving the comfort of your goon cave<\/a>.<\/p>\n Yet this withdrawal from in-person socializing reduces young people\u2019s opportunities to meet romantic partners or develop social skills. Relationship formation falls as a result.<\/p>\n \u201cThe digital revolution has played a signal role in both degrading socialization for young adults and dividing young adults from one another,\u201d Brad Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, told me.<\/p>\n And that revolution is only just beginning. After all, the tech sector\u2019s quest to make social isolation more appealing did not end with the advent of the iPhone, Netflix, or TikTok.<\/p>\n Since 2022, more than 1 billion people<\/a> have gained access to an infinitely patient conversation partner \u2014 one who can speak knowledgeably about all of their interests and listen compassionately to all of their problems. Thanks to Claude and ChatGPT, hermits can not only enjoy perpetual stimulation without social contact but also forms of emotional support that had previously required an intimate friend, family member, lover, or licensed therapist.<\/p>\n And these are the worst versions of these products we\u2019ll ever see. Future iterations may take even more engaging forms; someday, Claude might be able to get it on<\/a>.<\/p>\n This makes the \u201csmartphone theory\u201d one of the more important hypotheses of our time. If its narrative is correct \u2014 and there is some compelling evidence in its favor \u2014 then the fertility crisis is liable to deepen in the coming years. And AI might be replacing more than just our jobs.<\/p>\n Amusing ourselves to abstinence<\/p>\n Before digging into the \u201csmartphone theory\u201d of falling birth rates, it\u2019s worth clarifying its scope.<\/p>\n No one thinks that digital technology is the primary cause of declining fertility, a trend that predates the iPhone by more than a century in wealthy countries (Swedish farmers did not<\/a> start having fewer kids in the 1880s because of TikTok).<\/p>\n Rather, the main drivers of the long-term fertility descent appear to be foundational features of modernity: When scientific systems of healthcare and sanitation reduce child mortality, couples feel less compelled to have six kids in the hopes that three might survive. When industrial progress boosts the returns to education, parents have an incentive to invest more resources in each individual child\u2019s development, making large families harder to sustain. And when women secure political rights, economic autonomy, and reliable contraception, fewer choose to spend decades of their lives perpetually pregnant.<\/p>\n Yet these structural forces only get us so far. Modern medicine, economic development, and women\u2019s emancipation may have put humanity on the path to collapsing fertility. But some other factor recently sped us on our way: In the aughts, fertility rates actually plateaued globally<\/a> and rose in advanced economies<\/a> \u2014 before abruptly plummeting in the 2010s.<\/p>\n During that same decade, rates of singledom also spiked<\/a>. In countries as varied as the United States, South Korea, Turkey, Tunisia, and Finland, young adults became less likely to have a romantic partner. And this \u201crelationship recession\u201d seems to have fueled the post-2010 drop in fertility. According to a 2025 study published in Nature<\/a>, mothers in most high-income countries are having about as many children as they did decades ago. Yet fertility rates are falling nonetheless, due to a steep drop in the share of women who have any children at all.<\/p>\n The coupling collapse can\u2019t be explained by a sudden expansion of women\u2019s rights; it is happening even in deeply patriarchal societies like Saudi Arabia<\/a>. Nor is it easily attributed to economic turmoil;<\/a> rates of romantic partnership have fallen in both high-growth and low-growth nations, advanced economies and developing ones, countries rattled by the 2008 crisis and those largely unharmed by it.<\/p>\n Smartphones, on the other hand, were in the right places at the right times.<\/p>\n In country after country, the rise in singles \u2014 and drop in birth rates \u2014 coincided with the mass adoption of smartphones, according to an analysis from Burn-Murdoch<\/a>, the journalist at the Financial Times.<\/p>\n Correlation isn\u2019t causation. But there\u2019s reason to think this timing isn\u2019t coincidental.<\/p>\n In one recent study, economists from the University of Cincinnati examined how teen fertility changed<\/a> in different American and British localities as they gained access to 4G mobile networks. They found that the arrival of high-speed internet consistently accelerated declines in adolescent birth rates and conceptions. Their explanation for this phenomenon is straightforward: When the center of adolescent life moves online, in-personal socializing declines \u2014 and with it, opportunities for one thing to lead to another.<\/p>\n Time-use data lends credence to this theory. Across 21 European nations, the share of people who got together with their friends on a daily basis fell<\/a> from 21 percent in 2006 to 12 percent in 2022. In the US, meanwhile, time spent on in-person social interaction has plunged<\/a> during the smartphone era.<\/p>\n Taken together, these data points appear to tell a simple story: When humans acquire 24\/7 access to social media platforms and unlimited digital entertainment, they feel less need to hang out with peers in the real world \u2014 and demand more from potential partners.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen phones become ever more engaging and ever more exciting, then you want a super engaging person,\u201d Evans, the social scientist, said. \u201cHe\u2019s got to be better than an episode of Bridgerton.\u201d<\/p>\n Thus, some retreat from the frictions of in-person socialization entirely. Others forfeit opportunities to hone their social skills or find suitable but imperfect mates. Sexlessness ensues.<\/p>\n How AI could make sex obsolete<\/p>\n It isn\u2019t hard to see how AI could accelerate these trends.<\/p>\n Streaming and social media might have made the solitary life less dull and uncomfortable. But Pornhub won\u2019t talk with you about your career anxieties, favorite Civil War battle, or debilitating fear of iguanas. And TikTok won\u2019t provide discrete reassurance about that new mole on your chest. Before 2022, securing this sort of sympathetic ear typically required forging and sustaining real-world relationships.<\/p>\n But now, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT are happy to oblige.<\/p>\n Thus, if smartphones were outcompeting offline interaction before they hosted chatbots, they seem even better equipped to do so today.<\/p>\n Separately, AI may also widen the gap between young people\u2019s romantic expectations and dating realities.<\/p>\n Frequent interaction with a chatbot \u2014 who perpetually centers your concerns, never loses patience, and always has something to say about your topics of interest \u2014 could encourage unrealistic standards for human conversation, particularly among those who\u2019ve used AI intensively from an early age.<\/p>\n Of course, these are mere speculations. And research into AI\u2019s impacts on in-person socialization and dating is limited. But there is some evidence that chatbots could be expediting young people\u2019s drift towards solitude and sexlessness.<\/p>\n In a study published in 2025 from OpenAI and MIT, researchers tracked 981 participants\u2019 use of AI chatbots<\/a> over a four-week period. They found that subjects who voluntarily spent more time talking with LLMs during that span became more socially isolated by the study\u2019s end.<\/p>\n This doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that heavy chatbot use caused people to socialize less with other humans. After all, those who lack hangout opportunities might be more inclined to talk with chatbots. And yet, those who used AI intensively during the study had roughly as active social lives as other participants when the trial period began. Therefore, it seems likely that \u2014 at least in some cases \u2014 bonding with ChatGPT led to social isolation rather than vice versa.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, survey data suggest that people are turning to chatbots for companionship or romantic stimulation in growing numbers. In a 2025 poll<\/a> from Brigham Young University\u2019s Wheatley Institute, 19 percent of American adults \u2014 including 31 percent of young men \u2014 said they had chatted with an AI system meant to simulate a romantic partner.<\/p>\n More recently, the institute examined<\/a> the use of these pseudo-significant others by young Americans in committed relationships. In its survey, 15 percent of young adults with human partners reported having a secret AI romantic relationship. And among this significant minority, more than 70 percent of men \u2014 and nearly 60 percent of women \u2014 agreed with the statement, \u201cI wish conversations with my partner were like AI.\u201d And more than half of both male and female users of AI companions said they wished their human partners \u201cbehaved like my AI.\u201d<\/p>\n Perhaps more concerningly, respondents who used AI companions regularly were more likely to be in unstable relationships \u2014 in which they often thought that their partnership was in trouble, or discussed ending the relationship, or had broken up and gotten back together.<\/p>\n Once again, causality is difficult to determine. People in unstable relationships might be more inclined to seek artificial companionship. But chatbots\u2019 influence on their users\u2019 expectations are likely a factor, according to the report\u2019s co-author Brian Willoughby.<\/p>\n \u201cThe more I talk to an AI companion that is always validating me, always taking my side, and always talking about what I want to talk about,\u201d Willoughby said, \u201cthe more conversations with my real-life partner \u2014 who has their own views \u2014 will start paling in comparison to those AI interactions.\u201d<\/p>\n And silicon substitutes for human intimacy will only grow more sophisticated and holistic in the coming decades. Or so many in and around the tech industry believe.<\/p>\n Daniel Faggella, founder of Emerj Artificial Intelligence Research,<\/a> believes that advances in AI, virtual reality, and mechanized sex toys will eventually render human intercourse an obsolete<\/a> pastime<\/a> \u2014 one largely confined to nostalgists and connoisseurs, like driving stick shift.<\/p>\n \u201cThe great sexual organ is the brain,\u201d Faggella told me. \u201cIf you have the visuals, the voice, the haptics, the sound, real-time biofeedback \u2014 and even very crude physical implements to go along with them \u2014 I think you\u2019re going to beat the human flesh experience every time.\u201d<\/p>\n I suspect that sex has more staying power than Faggella allows. But erotic AI doesn\u2019t need to fully displace intimacy to accelerate the dating recession and fertility crisis. It merely needs to lure a sizable minority of men and women away from the hassle and heartbreak of human relationships. Judging by existing trends, superintelligent sexbots seem liable to meet that challenge.<\/p>\n The future could be brighter<\/p>\n AI\u2019s effects on human sociality remain uncertain. In theory, artificial intelligence could benefit human relationships and fertility \u2014 by, for example, helping awkward adolescents refine their conversational skills or providing troubled couples with on-demand counseling.<\/p>\n Moreover, some experts question how much smartphones actually changed fertility trends. In the view<\/a> of University of Pennsylvania economist Jes\u00fas Fern\u00e1ndez-Villaverde, the fundamental causes of the 2010s fertility collapse are long-term structural forces \u2014 among them, secularization, the \u201cdissolution of old social networks,\u201d and the rise of a service economy in which women\u2019s relative economic power has increased.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1-s2.0-S235282732200310X-gr1_lrg.jpg\"\/)
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